Is the Casino Beatable?
Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:00 am
Ask any question about video poker on this forum and you will most likely be given a different answer from each member. There is some truth to all the answers as "Everything works until it doesn't". On any given day, one member may be right and the rest wrong. On another day, the results could be reversed.
There are people in the world who have beaten the casino. Years ago casinos didn't know they were giving away too much until after the fact. A new game or comp program was developed and the casino sat back and monitored the results over time. Some of these programs turned out to be overly generous. Today's casinos have had years to work this out, removing practically all player advantage. They know how much free play will get you to come back. They know what comps fill the casino and what comps don't. If a game or program doesn't produce the desired profit, it is modified until it does. If an individual player beats the casino for too long or for too much, he/she is asked to play somewhere else. The casino makes the rules and the casino always wins in the end.
Video poker is gambling. This means we are wagering that certain future events will occur. You aren't paid by finding the game with the best odds. You are paid when your predictions turn out to be correct. Of all the things that have caused me to lose more money over the years, being overly concerned with odds is at the top of my list. Why?
At one time, I played dollar and up games exclusively. I did this because I believed the best games were in the larger denominations. I frequently played VP in Vegas and in Reno where they had the best games. At that time, 9/6 Jacks or Better was commonly available across the country. My favorite game was NSU Deuces Wild and it still is. I lost more money back then than I ever do now playing 97% quarter games. Was I less skilled in 2005? I was in still in my fifties and didn't need glasses and didn't get hand cramps and back strain. I won big too. I've told the story of winning $14,000 in one 24 hour period on this forum many times. Can you imagine how much I would have won that day if I had been betting $100 a coin?
The number one most significant factor in how much you win or lose in VP is "coin-in". Bet big...win big...lose big. Bet small...win small...lose small. Very few players win more than they lose lifetime no matter what the amount of their bet. Will you be one of the long term winners? If you believe odds can predict your results, you should know the odds are overwhelmingly against this. This is the reason I am so adamant about urging players to play small. Unfortunately, some players can't be entertained by gambling unless they take big risks. This was me at one time. The concept of being satisfied with a $250 quad deuce or a one in 40,000 hand $1,000 royal seemed like a waste of time. Eventually, I grew tired of giving my money to the casino and I switched to playing quarters. Interestingly enough, the only full pay games I find in Vegas are in quarters. The casinos knows the greater the coin-in, the bigger their profits. They aren't worried about a few advantage quarter players. What they want you to believe is you can find an advantage by playing bigger or longer. The casino's business plan is based on this belief.
What does this mean to a player in 2019? Here's my opinion. If you want to get the most out of video poker, stop believing you can beat the game because you most likely won't. Find a game that you enjoy and learn to play it well. Play it as small as you can stand. For me that is max coin quarters 90% of the time. I quit advising people to play single coin. It is a mathematical fact that the less money you run through most video poker machines, the less you will lose. Unfortunately, removing the royal bonus also removes a major entertainment incentive for playing the game. Playing single coin quarters is cheap, it's also boring.
Find entertainment value in video poker. If all you care about is making a profit, you will be severely disappointed. How about those experts who make a living playing VP? If you analyze all they say and I have, you will learn the importance they place on incentives, promotions, mailers and drawings. Do you have the time to sit in a casino and wait for your name to be called in a drawing? Do you have a bankroll big enough to earn comps with meaningful value? Can you consistently find and play only games where you have an advantage? I'm sure there are a few members of this forum who could answer Yes to these questions. How many of them make a life long profit? Ask the experts.
Making a profit from VP is hard work. If you are going to work hard for a living, doesn't it make sense to work smarter? Sitting in a casino all night breathing tobacco smoke waiting for a royal flush is not the smartest or the most profitable way to make money. I have not made a lifetime profit playing video poker. I have made well over a million dollars in the stock market and I am not Warren Buffet or anyone even close. I did not do this by being a stock picking genius. I did it by saving and investing over the long term and letting my profits compound. Boring? Yes. Profitable? You bet.
This post is not about teaching you anything. It's about relaying my experience over the last 20 years of playing video poker. I am not an expert on video poker nor do I claim to be. What I am an expert in is what happens when I sit in front of a video poker machine. I wish more players would relay their own experiences on this forum as I frequently do. If all you ever read about on this forum is long term winning, you will constantly wonder what's wrong. You will blame yourself. You may blame the casino or think the games are rigged. You may blame the experts. The casino is not in the business of allowing players to live a nice lifestyle off their mistakes. They are in the business of getting you to believe you can.
There are people in the world who have beaten the casino. Years ago casinos didn't know they were giving away too much until after the fact. A new game or comp program was developed and the casino sat back and monitored the results over time. Some of these programs turned out to be overly generous. Today's casinos have had years to work this out, removing practically all player advantage. They know how much free play will get you to come back. They know what comps fill the casino and what comps don't. If a game or program doesn't produce the desired profit, it is modified until it does. If an individual player beats the casino for too long or for too much, he/she is asked to play somewhere else. The casino makes the rules and the casino always wins in the end.
Video poker is gambling. This means we are wagering that certain future events will occur. You aren't paid by finding the game with the best odds. You are paid when your predictions turn out to be correct. Of all the things that have caused me to lose more money over the years, being overly concerned with odds is at the top of my list. Why?
At one time, I played dollar and up games exclusively. I did this because I believed the best games were in the larger denominations. I frequently played VP in Vegas and in Reno where they had the best games. At that time, 9/6 Jacks or Better was commonly available across the country. My favorite game was NSU Deuces Wild and it still is. I lost more money back then than I ever do now playing 97% quarter games. Was I less skilled in 2005? I was in still in my fifties and didn't need glasses and didn't get hand cramps and back strain. I won big too. I've told the story of winning $14,000 in one 24 hour period on this forum many times. Can you imagine how much I would have won that day if I had been betting $100 a coin?
The number one most significant factor in how much you win or lose in VP is "coin-in". Bet big...win big...lose big. Bet small...win small...lose small. Very few players win more than they lose lifetime no matter what the amount of their bet. Will you be one of the long term winners? If you believe odds can predict your results, you should know the odds are overwhelmingly against this. This is the reason I am so adamant about urging players to play small. Unfortunately, some players can't be entertained by gambling unless they take big risks. This was me at one time. The concept of being satisfied with a $250 quad deuce or a one in 40,000 hand $1,000 royal seemed like a waste of time. Eventually, I grew tired of giving my money to the casino and I switched to playing quarters. Interestingly enough, the only full pay games I find in Vegas are in quarters. The casinos knows the greater the coin-in, the bigger their profits. They aren't worried about a few advantage quarter players. What they want you to believe is you can find an advantage by playing bigger or longer. The casino's business plan is based on this belief.
What does this mean to a player in 2019? Here's my opinion. If you want to get the most out of video poker, stop believing you can beat the game because you most likely won't. Find a game that you enjoy and learn to play it well. Play it as small as you can stand. For me that is max coin quarters 90% of the time. I quit advising people to play single coin. It is a mathematical fact that the less money you run through most video poker machines, the less you will lose. Unfortunately, removing the royal bonus also removes a major entertainment incentive for playing the game. Playing single coin quarters is cheap, it's also boring.
Find entertainment value in video poker. If all you care about is making a profit, you will be severely disappointed. How about those experts who make a living playing VP? If you analyze all they say and I have, you will learn the importance they place on incentives, promotions, mailers and drawings. Do you have the time to sit in a casino and wait for your name to be called in a drawing? Do you have a bankroll big enough to earn comps with meaningful value? Can you consistently find and play only games where you have an advantage? I'm sure there are a few members of this forum who could answer Yes to these questions. How many of them make a life long profit? Ask the experts.
Making a profit from VP is hard work. If you are going to work hard for a living, doesn't it make sense to work smarter? Sitting in a casino all night breathing tobacco smoke waiting for a royal flush is not the smartest or the most profitable way to make money. I have not made a lifetime profit playing video poker. I have made well over a million dollars in the stock market and I am not Warren Buffet or anyone even close. I did not do this by being a stock picking genius. I did it by saving and investing over the long term and letting my profits compound. Boring? Yes. Profitable? You bet.
This post is not about teaching you anything. It's about relaying my experience over the last 20 years of playing video poker. I am not an expert on video poker nor do I claim to be. What I am an expert in is what happens when I sit in front of a video poker machine. I wish more players would relay their own experiences on this forum as I frequently do. If all you ever read about on this forum is long term winning, you will constantly wonder what's wrong. You will blame yourself. You may blame the casino or think the games are rigged. You may blame the experts. The casino is not in the business of allowing players to live a nice lifestyle off their mistakes. They are in the business of getting you to believe you can.
