Keeping track of the huge swings on the new vp machines

[olds442jetaway]

Actually, I just started this weekend. So far and as I expected at least on 9/6 job, the quadless dud streaks are long and the quad streaks are ultra short. I played about 6 hours on the new machines, actually fairly slowly for me and about 3,000 hands total. No quads at all in the first 5 and 1/2 hours of play and 7 quads in the last half hour bringing it to just about where it should be for the number of hands played. This is the first session I am actually recording, but have noticed this all year. On top of it three of the quads were deuces, two were aces, and the other two were threes!!!!! Never happens when I play DDB or rarely on Bonus Deuces Wild. Even with those wild swings, I did ok and didn’t lose because I played Martingale Clone so by the time the quads started hitting, my bets per hand were pretty high and nudging the bet 25 quarters max bet the machine allows.

[stevel96a1]

Careful Old, that type of thinking might get you into trouble, i reported my last trip how a 97.35% game w/ 725 credit lime lasted 90min on (bonus poker )new programed machine while older machine thats 96.89(bonus poker) thats been un-tampered with since 2009 lasted 180minutes with a 400 credit line, before that i tried giving 8/5 jacks a try with a 65$ bankroll never got a 4oak and maybe 3 full houses tops i lost that 65$ so fast i thought i was robbed, i also tried 100$ bankroll on 8/5 jacks and lasted maybe an hour? i tried 3 times with these new machines and i never got a happy ending, while my wife tried TDB with a 250$ bankroll and doubled it week after week on older machines

for all the experts that recycle what the experts say and believe in the RNG/pay schedule being fair not only i but others smell something fishy with their newer model RNG machines, i have a belief the cards are coming out random but understanding the RNG is shuffling either too fast or too slow these WIDER results and i dont like wide results in video poker the game is hell as is w/o the new RNG

[onemoretry]

i have a belief the cards are coming out random but understanding the RNG is shuffling either too fast or too slow these WIDER results and i dont like wide results in video poker the game is hell as is w/o the new RNG

What difference does the speed of shuffling make, as long as the cards are "coming out random"?

[Gronbog]

While I believe that all these things being reported did in fact happen, I also believe that the conclusion that it's all down to some rigged RNG algorithm is nothing but voodoo.

The bottom line for both Olds and Steve is that variance for video poker games is huge. Much larger than the house edge, and it goes both ways (positive and negative). That's why, in the short term, your money can last longer a game with a lower return and it's also why you can go a long time between quads followed by getting them in streaks.

I also believe that the "experts" have been largely silent on these points lately here in the Rec forum mainly because they were asked to be by the participants here.

[stevel96a1]

the software writters of that RNG know the answer, i just know which machine will stretch the lifespan of my bankroll and which one will shrink at a rapid pace

[stevel96a1]

you can smell that RNG like night and day, from playing an 8 deck blackjack game to a single deck blackjack game sure the cards are shuffled, come out random, and you still receive your BJ on the average of 20ish hands dealt but everyone knows its best to play single over 8 or 12 deck shoe

[Gronbog]

Bad example. The math for blackjack supports the fact that fewer decks are better.

[stevel96a1]

thats what i meant old machine may as well be single deck and new machine maybe well 8 deck still getting equal of BJ and still random but which would you play?

[olds442jetaway]

The Martingale Clone works in my favor on these types of machines as long as the dud streaks arent large enough to bust my bankroll. I’m playing overnight tonite on Joker kings. I will report back what happens tomorrow. So far, I’m only down 31 bucks after playing 3 hours. Time will tell. All I know is I would rather hit all of my big hands at bet 10,15,20 or 25 than betting uno.

[Gronbog]

thats what i meant old machine may as well be single deck and new machine maybe well 8 deck still getting equal of BJ and still random but which would you play?

But what I meant is that single deck and 8 deck blackjack are not equal. Single deck is mathematically superior in the same way as playing a VP game with a better return.

Also, for what it's worth, blackjack players playing against fair cards also go through these swings and droughts.