It took the worst machine to break the streak

The lighter side... playing for entertainment, less concerned about "the math."
FloridaPhil
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Re: It took the worst machine to break the streak

Post by FloridaPhil »

tech58 wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:28 pm
More hands per $ equates to more jackpots per $ . In the long run of course.
You said it yourself, "...gives you a better chance of hitting a result changing hand."
Look it up, apx. 8" above.
This discussion always comes back to the definition of "in the long run". Olds442jetaway plays more VP than I do. I play more VP than my wife. She plays more VP than my son. Who is going to reach that magic "in the long run" number of hands first? A computer simulation or a math formula on paper is not actual human play. They are averages and are useful as such. No one can accurately predict the long term results of video poker based on the odds alone. Too many variables.

tech58
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Post by tech58 »

Read your words again "better chance' is in play each and every hand along the way to the long run.
I tried , i failed, i leave the field to a better wordsmith.

FloridaPhil
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Post by FloridaPhil »

tech58 wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:36 pm
Read your words again "better chance' is in play each and every hand along the way to the long run.
I tried , i failed, i leave the field to a better wordsmith.
"Chance" is what gambling is all about. If all video poker play exactly mimicked a computer simulation, there would be no reason to play. The casino would hide all the positive games and award jackpots for finding them. What makes video poker playable is it's unpredictability. As stated above, the odds of going 36,000 hands without a quad deuce is slim. Unfortunately for Olds442jetaway, it happened.

Jstark
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Post by Jstark »

Smart gamblers remove all or most "chance" from the games they play.

FAA
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Post by FAA »

Congratulations. $50 is $50!

onemoretry
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Post by onemoretry »

FloridaPhil wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:32 am
A difference in hands played per dollar, Yes. Jackpots per dollar, No.
How does this relate to "building comps and playing more hands"?

Gronbog
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Post by Gronbog »

FloridaPhil wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:06 pm
No one can accurately predict the long term results of video poker based on the odds alone. Too many variables.
Here we go again. Where is the face-palm emoji? In your first post after returning, didn't you say you were going to stop disputing the math? :geek:

OTABILL
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Post by OTABILL »

Gronbog wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:08 pm
FloridaPhil wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:06 pm
No one can accurately predict the long term results of video poker based on the odds alone. Too many variables.
Here we go again. Where is the face-palm emoji? In your first post after returning, didn't you say you were going to stop disputing the math? :geek:
FP is absolutely on target. The math in this instance not absolute. You are not talking 1 + 1 = 2. You are talking probability, standard deviation, etc. And what constitutes the "long run"? As I've mention in the past, 10 years in Vegas between my wife and I and no RFs playing single line. For my wife, the long run has ended. Olds has gone over 600,000 hands between royals. I doubt most recreational play that many hands over years. There is no way you guarantee someone will hit a royal, etc. over lifetime .That is what FP is saying, no one can guarantee any specific person's results will match the expected return over the long run. That's where luck or good fortune, if you will, comes into play.

FloridaPhil
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Post by FloridaPhil »

Jstark wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:51 pm
Smart gamblers remove all or most "chance" from the games they play.
We are not discussing who is smart or not in this thread, we are discussing why a bad game may pay better than a good game over a specific period of time. Let's say six of the best video poker players in the world have a deuces wild tournament. Some of the games are 96%, some are 99% and one is full pay. The players know the odds and adjust their strategy accordingly. The math says the player who plays the full pay game has a better chance of winning the tournament. Will he?

Video poker is gambling. This means you may go 32,000 hands without a quad deuce or 600,000 hands without a royal. It also means you could hit either on the very next hand. If you only play the best games accurately, you have a better chance of coming out ahead. There is always a chance you may not.

The game I play on this website is near positive. I'm ten royals ahead on that game. Someone else playing the same game with the same skill could be ten royals behind.

There is no such thing as a "can't lose always wins" video poker game or player.

FloridaPhil
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Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:28 am

Post by FloridaPhil »

Gronbog wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:08 pm
Here we go again. Where is the face-palm emoji? In your first post after returning, didn't you say you were going to stop disputing the math? :geek:
You are misrepresenting what I am saying. If you only play positive games accurately with an adequate bankroll, you have an excellent chance of making a profit. What happens along the way is what I am discussing here.

I will never be a so-called "intelligent gambler" because I hate losing. If I lost $50,000 in a year playing video poker, it would not change my lifestyle. However, it would take me a long time to get over it. If I did this year after year, I would be a severely depressed. I would feel like I let down my family and myself. If I won it all back the following year, it wouldn't change anything.

Does feeling this way mean I can't enjoy a day at the casino? Not at all. I see my loathe of losing as an advantage. When others are losing thousands, I am losing quarters. When I lose a couple hundred bucks, I smile knowing it's not a couple thousand. Betting small also limits my winnings. The mental battle between winning big and losing small is a gambler's greatest challenge. To win that battle, you must know your limitations.

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