It took the worst machine to break the streak

The lighter side... playing for entertainment, less concerned about "the math."
Gronbog
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Re: It took the worst machine to break the streak

Post by Gronbog »

FloridaPhil wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:05 am
Gronbog wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:08 pm
Here we go again. Where is the face-palm emoji? In your first post after returning, didn't you say you were going to stop disputing the math? :geek:
You are misrepresenting what I am saying. If you only play positive games accurately with an adequate bankroll, you have an excellent chance of making a profit. What happens along the way is what I am discussing here.
Great. Then what you mean is that you can't predict the short term.

Gronbog
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Post by Gronbog »

OTABILL wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:58 pm
And what constitutes the "long run"?
Asked and answered several times in various threads. N0 (N-zero) = Variance / ((house edge) ^ 2) is the number of hands needed for your expected result to equal one standard deviation. At that point you are into the long run.

FloridaPhil
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Post by FloridaPhil »

Please tell us again how many hands is "one standard deviation".

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

I still have my stat book, but am so rusty from not using the formulas, all I can go by are real life results. Those are the things that can either make me rich or empty my pockets. The casino ulrimately has an excellent chance of emptying your pockets. Imagine the probability of even 3 hands coming out that way. Then inagine every hand you play that day coming out exactly that way. There are too many zeros before the decimal point to even count yet they happen. I once watched a homeless lady in Atlantic City roll 5 or 6 i forget now which consecutive 12s. The odds, yes the same on each roll, but the probability enormous against it. All I am saying is no matter what the math that cannot be disputed says, real life events beyond comprehension happen all the time.

Gronbog
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Post by Gronbog »

FloridaPhil wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:01 am
Please tell us again how many hands is "one standard deviation".
One standard deviation is the square root of the variance and is different for each game. It's not a number of hands, but rather a measure of how wild the swings of the game can be. I think that most here are familiar with the idea that some games have higher variance than others. One good source is Dancer's "Video Poker for the Intelligent Beginner". It lists the return and variance of almost every game in existence.

Gronbog
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Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:59 pm

Post by Gronbog »

olds442jetaway wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:31 am
I once watched a homeless lady in Atlantic City roll 5 or 6 i forget now which consecutive 12s. The odds, yes the same on each roll, but the probability enormous against it. All I am saying is no matter what the math that cannot be disputed says, real life events beyond comprehension happen all the time.
Absolutely true. However the math does not predict that these things will not happen. It predicts that they will happen and that they will happen very rarely, just as we observe in real life.

FloridaPhil
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Post by FloridaPhil »

According to my VPW software, the variance of 98.9% deuces wild at max coins (5) is 25.6219. How many hands must I play for the odds to exactly determine my results?
Last edited by FloridaPhil on Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:48 am, edited 2 times in total.

Jstark
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Post by Jstark »

FloridaPhil wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:42 am
According to my VPW software, the variance of 98.9% deuces wild at max coins (5) is 25.6219. How many hands must I play for the odds to determine my results?
98.9% with optimal strategy. Fairly certain most players are playing it at about 97%.

FloridaPhil
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Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:28 am

Post by FloridaPhil »

OK. According to my VPW software, the variance of the 97.055% quarter deuces wild game at the Tampa casino at max coins (5) is 24.865 with optimal strategy. How many hands must I play for the odds to exactly determine my results?

OTABILL
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Post by OTABILL »

Gronbog wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:54 am
OTABILL wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:58 pm
And what constitutes the "long run"?
Asked and answered several times in various threads. N0 (N-zero) = Variance / ((house edge) ^ 2) is the number of hands needed for your expected result to equal one standard deviation. At that point you are into the long run.
You are right this has been discussed before. I recall having exchanged posts with Bill Ryan on this subject. You can calculate "long run" results for 500,000 - 20 million hands. That's fine but there is no absolute number constituting the long run. When you talk of expected results, rather than guaranteed results, by inference you are acknowledging that luck, etc. plays a part in actual results.

Furthermore, to me, and I would surmise most casual recreational VP players, the long run is looked at as a period of time. I never have counted how many hands I've played and would bet the overwhelming majority of recreational players don't as well. I'm not in the casino to do a research project for a PhD in probability theory. Rather I'm there for entertainment.

Peace

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