Re: It took the worst machine to break the streak
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2020 3:51 am
My only personal experience with long term positive games has been playing on this website. I assume the games on this website are as random as the games in a casino, but I could be wrong. I play a lot of hands on this website. Not enough to make any claims, but enough to satisfy me that there is value in playing with an advantage. If I could play the same game in a casino, I could pay some bills.
When I go to the casino each week, I don't play the same way I do here. The games are different. I may change games at random. I may change denominations. I may modify the computer strategy to fit my own desires. Sometimes my results are better than the math predicts. Frequently they are not.
It is impossible for anyone to produce a math formula or computer simulation that can mimic what I do in a casino because they don't know what I will do until I do it. They also don't know how many hands I will play in my lifetime or where in the cycle I will quit. This is the problem I have with predicting future results based on odds alone.
What you can predict with certainty is that I will pay a price to play in a casino. There are very few players who don't. I could stay home and save my money. I would miss meeting with my friends and enjoying my time on the machines. Would I enjoy the games any better if they were positive? Probably not. I would be tempted to play bigger, which is exactly what the casino wants me to do.
When I go to the casino each week, I don't play the same way I do here. The games are different. I may change games at random. I may change denominations. I may modify the computer strategy to fit my own desires. Sometimes my results are better than the math predicts. Frequently they are not.
It is impossible for anyone to produce a math formula or computer simulation that can mimic what I do in a casino because they don't know what I will do until I do it. They also don't know how many hands I will play in my lifetime or where in the cycle I will quit. This is the problem I have with predicting future results based on odds alone.
What you can predict with certainty is that I will pay a price to play in a casino. There are very few players who don't. I could stay home and save my money. I would miss meeting with my friends and enjoying my time on the machines. Would I enjoy the games any better if they were positive? Probably not. I would be tempted to play bigger, which is exactly what the casino wants me to do.