Machine Hopping

The lighter side... playing for entertainment, less concerned about "the math."
Eduardo
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Re: Machine Hopping

Post by Eduardo »

Like many disagreements in life, it comes down to how you define the terms.

It's pretty simple, really. The machines are not programmed to run in "cycles." But cycles occur in any random number environment and can only be observed in hindsight.

So... leaving a machine that's in a slump is meaningless as far as the odds are concerned. The "cycle" could end on your next hand, and is no different than the machine you are switching to. There may be a psychological reason to change, and there's nothing wrong with that.

I get that some people really believe that cycles are a result of intentional programming (for some reason) so there is a felt need to push back against that. It's definitely one of the "myths" you hear the most. But I wish people would chill out about this stuff and not be so uptight or rude to eachother.

Jstark
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Post by Jstark »

FloridaPhil wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:39 am
Jstark wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:23 am
No, they DON'T run in cycles. Biggest myth about video poker machines.
I am tired of people making statements on this forum that we all know are false. Everyone knows video poker hands run in cycles of up and down. Those that say this is false are doing so to make themselves look smarter than the rest of us mere mortals. The question should be "Can you use this information to your advantage?" Of course not. Just be honest and you won't get arguments from people who know better.
My statement is not false. You are the one that decides what cards come out with you hit the button. The machine doesn't know squat. All it does it turn those numbers into visuals you see as playing cards.

Take the 4 aces hand I hit last night that I posted in my "Hittin' Longshots" thread. People thinking like you do, would say "that's a 'hot' machine." Reality is, if I hit the draw button at a different time, most of the time I end up with a losing hand.

I've proven you wrong once before and it's cost you. You should know better by now.

Player422738
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Post by Player422738 »

Are you folks still dreaming about correctly timing the machine in 2020?

If you can do it correctly, then you should play roulette which has only 38 outcomes way less than VP, time it, bet it and be an millionaire overnight!

Player422738
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Post by Player422738 »

I have also seen millions of kids playing claw machines at arcades and think it’s due. Some smart kids are counting like the blackjack counter and jump in when they think it’s time.

They just don’t know the claw pressure is driven by a random number generator and it’s not due. Their strategy may work since the odds of high pressure is about 1 in 10, which is not a small number. But it’s just a coincidence if they think their counting strategy works.

FloridaPhil
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Post by FloridaPhil »

Video poker machines are not "DUE". They are not "PROGRAMMED" either. All the RNG does is produce random numbers. With that said, anyone who has played video poker for longer than an hour knows swings/streaks do in fact occur. No one can predict when a streak will start or end or in what direction a swing will take. I believe it's a fair description to call these swings unpredictable "cycles".

No one can predict if a video poker machine is going to be hot or cold until it's played. If you move from a cold machine to a hot machine, you temporarily made the right decision. If you move from a hot machine to a cold machine, you didn't. A hot machine can go cold in an instant and vise versa. There is no long term advantage to be gained by attempting to capitalize on the natural swings of the game. When you guess right, it makes you feel good until you guess wrong.

I like to machine hop because it renews my confidence with each move. It would do the same for someone else if they played the machine I just left. Renewed confidence sharpens my focus and keeps me from making errors. If I move machines and hit a jackpot, I may walk out of the casino believing I have the game figured out. If I stay on the same machine and hit a jackpot, I may believe staying is better. Video poker is gambling. There are no guarantees either way.

Eduardo
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Post by Eduardo »

Well, you're not entirely right then, at least as I read it. But again it's probably just the way you are phrasing it.

There are no "hot" machines to move to.

If you move from a machine that wasn't performing well to another machine, and your cards improve, then you simply got better cards at the new machine. The machine wasn't "hot." It had nothing to do with the machine itself. It wasn't a good move or a bad move. It was just a move, and you happened to get better results at that time.

If you decide to move, your odds on the next hand are no different than staying, no matter how "cold" your machine has been the past several hands. It might feel better just to leave a cold streak behind.

But like you, I have no problem with referring to hot and cold cycles in the context of a session. We all have good and bad ones. As long as people realize this is the result of chance (and that these things are expected in a fair game) then it's fine.

verylowroller
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Post by verylowroller »

Hello. I am fairly new to this forum, and am a little hesitant to wade into this but there is something about this discussion that I still do not understand. Specifically, if video poker machines are not "programmed" and if the RNG is simply producing random numbers, how can a machine be either hot or cold? How can the hands it throws be a function of anything other than when you hit the button? If, with the benefit of hindsight, a session has been unusually good or bad, how can that be attributed to anything other than the player's timing and the RNG?

verylowroller
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Post by verylowroller »

Hi Eduardo. I was typing as you were posting, and you covered everything I was wondering about. Thanks.

Eduardo
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Post by Eduardo »

It sounds like you understand it just fine. Machines are not "hot" or "cold." It just just a function of your timing, like you said. Looking back, it is probably better to say "that was a cold session" rather than "that machine was cold."

FloridaPhil
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Post by FloridaPhil »

I believe the question is "Does moving machines help or hurt?" Assuming the game is the same and the machines operate the same, I don't believe it makes any difference to the machines. The numbers the RNG selects are totally random. The machine does not know what your last hand was or what your next hand will be. It also does not know how long it's been since you hit a royal flush.

Personally, I like moving machines because it helps my attitude. Moving machines does have an advantage that I forgot to mention previously. You just might find a better game.
Last edited by FloridaPhil on Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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