I think I know why

The lighter side... playing for entertainment, less concerned about "the math."
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olds442jetaway
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I think I know why

Post by olds442jetaway »

The probability of a dealt four of a kind in particular four deuces is in the area of every 54,000 hands or so. It is pretty close to the probability of getting a royal flush on the draw in draw poker. One in 40 some thousand hands for most games. Over the years, I have enjoyed a vanishing game with a not great pay table called double down stud video poker. In 40 years of playing video poker, I have played millions of hands in both draw poker and double down stud poker. Yet I have hit twice as many dealt quad deuces as Royals on the draw poker games. I believe the reason is the nature of the games that allows twice as many hands to be played in double down stud video poker as draw poker in the same timeframe. Even if you cannot quite play twice as many hands in Double Down Stud, it is close enough to explain the huge difference. I am also under Royaled in Draw Poker by a large margin even after millions of hands.

FAA
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Post by FAA »

I think $1,000 is a steep BR. The higher they climb, the harder they fall!

BobDancer
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Post by BobDancer »

1 in 40,000 hands is the frequency of royals (in some games, anyway), NOT royals on the deal. That number is 1 in 650,000 hands.

You should receive dealt deuces twelve times as often as dealt royals (in 52-card games). The math on this is pretty easy, but this is the Recreational Forum, so I think math is forbidden.

Anyway, if you're getting twice as many dealt deuces as dealt royals, you either WAY over-royaled, WAY under-deuced, or WAY WAY not very good at remembering how many of each you've had.

Of the three possibilities, as a betting man I know which one I'd put my money on!

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Maybe you misunderstood my post Bob I was comparing dealt quad Deuces to Royals caught on the draw and draw poker one hand in every 54,000 for the Dealt quad deuces and depending on the game and in draw poker, Hit a royal on the draw every 40 some thousand hands or so. That was the comparison I was making as the Dealt quad deuces On double down stud pays me the same as getting a royal In Draw poker. That’s of course because I would automatically double my bet on double down stud Being a winner after the first four cards are shown. Of course the downside long term is giving up close to 3% on double down stud and between 1/2 and 1% on draw Parker depending on the game. Not that it is going to happen anytime soon, but I have gone about 6 million hands now without a dealt royal, So naturally it’s in the back of my mind and I am trying not to let it affect which game I choose. It is getting harder and harder to be able to play video poker anyway with any chance of staying around even because at Mohegan sun there are only a handful of 99% or better draw poker machines left. The rest have either been removed or are shut down.

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