Extremely Lucky. I should quit for the year now!

The lighter side... playing for entertainment, less concerned about "the math."
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FAA
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Re: Extremely Lucky. I should quit for the year now!

Post by FAA »

Yeah, that’s basically the AC system, at least at CET. Funny how organized they are when helping with government compliance. Congratulations on the hand pay. Nobody’s given me a hand yet. My crack money saving system backfired big time today.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

I posted about your great hit FAA on your thread. I had another nice Martingale clone bail out last night on Double Down Stud Bonus Deuces Wild. As usual, I did not quit when ahead. I promptly gave the 200 buck profit back flat betting 5 quarters on regular Deuces Wild game. With only a n hour left to play, and tail between my legs, I started the clone sequence over again on a quarter Joker Kings game. I was fairly lucky in hitting some wild card quads and ended up 100 bucks for the session. Caught a nice breakfast in the lounge on the way out. Good spacing and protocols observed. I get my second shot this Wednesday. I am going to have to keep a notebook with entries on my maximum up amounts per session. I have no doubt that if I stuck to the quit when ahead Philosophy , I would be well ahead every year since I started the Martingale Clone method. That is because in those Inevitable Bank busting sessions, I just stop and cut my losses and wait for the next trip.
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FAA
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Post by FAA »

Congratulations. That $560 hit is within $200 of my RF! Was that a $7 (14 + 14) bet?
My risk mitigation has gone far. I’m okay with mid level $75 quads. But not a mid level RF! I remember your redraw RF. It’s just a fluke story for you with your play level. Disaster for me!

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Yes, but the second 14 quarters are just to not only double what you have won already, but to try and improve your hand on the last card which as you see it did.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

olds442jetaway wrote:
Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:26 pm
I have no doubt that if I stuck to the quit when ahead Philosophy , I would be well ahead every year since I started the Martingale Clone method.
But you've acknowledged that bet variations don't improve EV, so they're irrelevant. You could exclusively flat bet, and quit your way to prosperity -- if you followed the plan. Correct?

Can I ask a couple background questions since I haven't followed from the beginning?

How severe are your strategy errors? You don't seem the type to rigorously follow an optimal strategy. Taking the Bonus DW DDS game as an example, I don't even know where to find the strategy. And it's only a 96% game if you play perfectly.

How certain are you that your September royal was a redraw? They're so rare that it's hard to find examples, but typically the HELD indicators don't light up unless a card was actually held. Is it possible the royal was in fact dealt? I've had dealt single-line royals. It happens very fast and can be disorienting.

Thanks in advance.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

The Royal was a redraw. I tossed everything and the machine auto held the cards. As to the strategy on DDS. It is an extremely easy game to adhere to perfect strategy since the only decision you have to make is whether or not to double sfter you see your first 4 cards. The return long term on this game is still not good but is in the 97.5 range give or take a bit. I haven’t looked up the strategy in a long time, but I think the Wizard of odds has it and maybe in Bob D’s book. I usually only give it 10 percent of my play snd many sessions none at all. The reason I am usually ahead on my sessions is with my Martingale Clone method of playing, It is usually relatively easy to get small wins at the risk of a bankroll buster. I have a cut off point so I won’t lose thousands in a single session, but it certainly and can and does happen with any Martingale method. I have had very poor luck over the years getting ahead early flat betting. It doesn’t help that I am lifetime under Royaled by quite a bit. For 2021 I am about where I should be so far, but prior years have been disasters hitting Royals every 40-50k hands

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

olds442jetaway wrote:
Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:05 am
The return long term on this game is still not good but is in the 97.5 range give or take a bit.
My reference was Wizard's article showing a 0.395% house edge, but looking further I see his analyzer says 97.14% considering the total amount wagered.

Full-pay would be slightly above 99%, but that's for quads paying 7 instead of 6.

I understand the strategy is only a few lines, but I mentioned it because it's not easily obtainable afaik. For most players it's not a simple matter to switch among disparate games during a session and play them all accurately.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

olds442jetaway wrote:
Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:05 am
The reason I am usually ahead on my sessions is with my Martingale Clone method of playing, It is usually relatively easy to get small wins at the risk of a bankroll buster.
Yes, ahead on your sessions, but not ahead overall. Bet variation could win long-term if the machines are streakier than normal random. A controversial supposition.

I'm trying to consider how your viewpoint could be correct. I can't find any logic to support the "quit when ahead" philosophy of advantage play. To be sure, quitting is usually a good thing for a negative-EV player, but that's about the extent of its value.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

I can only write about my own experiences playing well over 20 million hands for over 30 years. The Double Down Stud machine is a stand alone machine. There are no draw poker games in it They are very hard to find nowdays. I have never seen one where the quad pays 7 before doubling. Some machines offer regular DDS besides bonus. A few pay 7 before doubling for the quads. I think that ups the return to around 97.5 percent but they pay no bonus for 5 Aces, deuces with an Ace or the low number quads. They pay 100 instead of 80 for the wild Royal before doubling. There is only one working regular deuces one left at Mohegan Sun.
I have noticed something else over the years. Everyone will say it is just part of Randomness. If I am in a really cold cycle, and I creep up and get to max bet of 25 quarters and still lose, I switch to halves with a starting bet of 13, almost always the machine will hit something right away usually right at bet 13. Very strange. I am talking about various draw poker games.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

This is just one quick example of how I play draw poker. 9/6 job. I made it to start at bet 1 for simplicity.
First the sequence for 11 straight losing hands flatbetting bet one. After that, I am -11. Next bet hit a full house. Still -3.
This would be my sequence.....4 bets at 1, 4 bets at 2, 3 bets at 3. Now -21. Then hit a full house on the next bet. bet 3x9=27. I still would be +3. The risk of course is never hitting anything good and busting
I really miss the 2 cent games they used to have years ago. They allowed up to bet 100. I don’t ever remember losing on those machines. You could only get them in the middle if the night they were so busy. Just one bank of them. They yanked them out years ago. Odds were terrible In the 95/96 range

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