How often does this happen?

The lighter side... playing for entertainment, less concerned about "the math."
Post Reply
olds442jetaway
Video Poker Master
Posts: 9262
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:08 pm

How often does this happen?

Post by olds442jetaway »

Many VP players wonder, but do not know over time how often something happens. There is one very easy way to get the answer that takes less than a minute. Let’s say you want to know how often you have to wait in the long haul ( not short term ) to hit say a quad on JOB. Just google....Wizard of odds Jacks or Better video poker paytable....The site will come up and just scroll down to the paytable you are looking for. If is a 99.54 paytable, just divide the probability of the event which in this case is four of a kind into one and you will have your answer.
1 divided by .00236 = once every 424 hands in round numbers. I don’t have Bob Ds book, but my guess is the various paytables may be in it as well. If somebody knows, just add the info to this post.

advantage playe
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:38 am

Post by advantage playe »

one in 423.27 hands playing optimal strategy. I just looked it up at my win poker.

onemoretry
Video Poker Master
Posts: 2833
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2009 8:00 pm

Post by onemoretry »

If you go to the Wizard's game analyzer, you can skip the division step, as the analyzer shows the frequency of all the possible outcomes.

olds442jetaway
Video Poker Master
Posts: 9262
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:08 pm

Post by olds442jetaway »

Thanks OMT

FAA
Video Poker Master
Posts: 8465
Joined: Wed May 28, 2014 11:58 am

Post by FAA »

Just remember that even if this probability shakes out on your trip, you will still be a loser if you increase your denomination halfway through. In my case, a flat bust. I hope that I can save such antics until five minutes before departure.

onemoretry
Video Poker Master
Posts: 2833
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2009 8:00 pm

Post by onemoretry »

FAA wrote:
Fri Mar 19, 2021 2:50 pm
......you will still be a loser if you increase your denomination halfway through.
Not likely if you happen to hit a royal after upping the denomination.

FAA
Video Poker Master
Posts: 8465
Joined: Wed May 28, 2014 11:58 am

Post by FAA »

Yep, that's the denomination motivation. But a spectacular flame out remains the most likely outcome.

Post Reply