Playing with some numbers.

The lighter side... playing for entertainment, less concerned about "the math."
applepear86
Senior Member
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Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:06 am

Re: Playing with some numbers.

Post by applepear86 »

onemoretry wrote:
Wed Dec 29, 2021 7:57 am
applepear86 wrote:
Wed Dec 29, 2021 12:13 am
...And it actually doesn't ruin your results at all in the long run, it just stretches the odds out more.
Really? You're already playing a pretty crappy game (96.8%), and then you decide to play an even crappier one (95.6%), and you argue it won't ruin your long term results? Seems illogical to me.
That's 95.6% is on the one coin, the 1.2% extra long term loss being only on the one coin. If you're switching between a nickel or quarter and then a significantly higher amount, that's a fraction of a penny I don't really care about in all honesty.

And I don't play those crappy paytables, i usually manage to find 98% or higher (usually JOB or bonus), and if I don't I will probably play nickels on a super times pay bartop switched to one hand without the extra coin bonus activated lol (most casinos that have the worst paytables also tend to offer only quarters and higher on a lot of the game kings that's why I do that).

I brought up that particular 8/5 game because most of the people that preach to play 5 coin all the time, are the same people playing $5 a hand 8/5 paytables with no advantage angle whatsoever at a tight crappy casino chain. If I'm playing a negative game for leisure where I'm wracking up negative EV, you best believe I'm going to bet how I feel the cards are going, even if it's only for entertainment in the long run.

And royal chasing is the worst bet in the casino (if you're exclusively playing for that). Take the casino advantage % and apply to the number of average expected hands for a royal, and you will see how expensive the royal really is, the royal is there to scam you into long term chasing. On some of the bad paytables it's like playing a roulette wheel with FIFTY zeros from a royal chasing standpoint looking at that matrix. Even 9/6 JOB royal chasing, same as playing a roulette wheel with 7 zeros. (before people jump down my throat I'm talking about people who exclusively play to chase the royal). The royal can heavily impact the payback of course, but the people who sit there on these awful paytables and preach about exclusively being 5 coin are the ones I was moreso ranting at. I respect the Bob Dancers of the video poker world who play full 5 coin exclusively when they have an advantage. Otherwise, I say switching around the bet shouldn't be the cardinal sin it's made out to be.

FAA
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Joined: Wed May 28, 2014 11:58 am

Post by FAA »

Royal Flush is once in 40,391assuming five max coins correct play. 40,391 ($1.25) = $50,489 coin in (.0046) = $232 theoretical cost on 9/6 or .9954 JOB. We could afford that. Load up that machine and let the good times roll! Unless you go multiple cycles without one. On dollar it's a $929 theoretical tab for that bucket list W-2G. What deals! These are the best games. You know what rhymes with bucket?

applepear86
Senior Member
Posts: 119
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:06 am

Post by applepear86 »

FAA wrote:
Wed Dec 29, 2021 2:20 pm
Royal Flush is once in 40,391assuming five max coins correct play. 40,391 ($1.25) = $50,489 coin in (.0046) = $232 theoretical cost on 9/6 or .9954 JOB. We could afford that. Load up that machine and let the good times roll! Unless you go multiple cycles without one. On dollar it's a $929 theoretical tab for that bucket list W-2G. What deals! These are the best games. You know what rhymes with bucket?
That's a 23.2% premium over the cost of the royal. That's massive, even a lot of keno paytables have a lower top jackpot premium, like on a 5 spot. Now let's say you put your session bankroll on only one roulette spin instead of your intended VP game, making your target between 1,000 to 4,000 depending on the VP you would be foregoing, it's only a 5.26% premium, or 2.7% depending what wheel you go on. Even the triple 000 wheel would be cheaper than full pay JOB lol. And no w2 unless it's over 10 grand! :D The only downside with this is your one spin would be over in 2 minutes with no entertainment value (except maybe an adrenaline rush). The keyword there being ENTERTAINMENT. My bet switching is just as valid as someone royal chasing and flat betting 5 coins on a negative game.

I for one enjoy switching down when the cards go absolutely dead, riding out dozens of losses on low bets. I've had a lot of success doing this, with a couple miserable sessions along the way admittedly. Over time will randomness make my strategy moot? The numbers say yes. But am I entertained sitting there arguing with math stubbornly thinking I can defeat it? You bet I am! ;)

FAA
Video Poker Master
Posts: 8465
Joined: Wed May 28, 2014 11:58 am

Post by FAA »

Look, I’m with you. No sense throwing good money after bad. Looking at it from a premium cost prism is an interesting idea. Basically, we’re all waiting for the miracle session and trying to suppress losses in the meantime.

onemoretry
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Post by onemoretry »

applepear86 wrote:
Wed Dec 29, 2021 3:55 pm
I for one enjoy switching down when the cards go absolutely dead, riding out dozens of losses on low bets. I've had a lot of success doing this, with a couple miserable sessions along the way admittedly.
The one thing I have difficulty with in understanding this way of playing is: How do you know?

How do you know, for example, that, after a couple of dud hands, the cards are "dead"? Couldn't the next hand be a big winner? And, conversely, how do you know, after you've been betting one credit at a time, that the dud streak is over, and it's time to max bet again?

It's definitely not a style of play that appeals to me, because I know that I don't know what's coming on the next deal, or deals.

applepear86
Senior Member
Posts: 119
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:06 am

Post by applepear86 »

FAA wrote:
Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:40 pm
Look, I’m with you. No sense throwing good money after bad. Looking at it from a premium cost prism is an interesting idea. Basically, we’re all waiting for the miracle session and trying to suppress losses in the meantime.
Yes 100%.

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