Playing with some numbers.

The lighter side... playing for entertainment, less concerned about "the math."
applepear86
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Re: Playing with some numbers.

Post by applepear86 »

My personal strategy on JOB, I tend to keep track of if I'm ahead 3 bets or behind 3 bets. Whenever I cross those two thresholds, I'll either raise my bet high or go down to the machine minimum 1 coin if into loss territory. (think betting 1 nickel or 1 quarter in the negative wave, and then $2.50 or $5 in positive, or whatever you prefer) The theory behind this being that nothing good happens in negative territory. I may wrack up a 20 or 30 bet loss on the minimum 1 coin before the two pairs and three of a kinds start showing up, when they do I'll go back up to a high bet again. A full house or flush is usually around the corner after playing into the mud for a while so that really can push things up as well when you switch back up. I've had good luck doing this, although if you simulate anything of course the math will break down in the end, not claiming a holy grail here. I've used this on deuces as well with success.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

I heard they keep the 99.54 JOB because the men play them and their wives and girlfriends play the 88 percent slots at 3 or 4 bucks a spin and get killed. I see them regularly coming back to ask the men for more money.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Yes, I have used that method as well with success when I have the discipline. I have hit more than one Royal that way at bet 10,15, or 20 after a streak of 15-30 losers on JOB. Unfortunately, I have hit a Royal or two with one coin in.

applepear86
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Post by applepear86 »

olds442jetaway wrote:
Fri Dec 24, 2021 8:26 pm
I heard they keep the 99.54 JOB because the men play them and their wives and girlfriends play the 88 percent slots at 3 or 4 bucks a spin and get killed. I see them regularly coming back to ask the men for more money.
Very true! But I'm willing to bet if you're in the midwest or another local, especially tribal, that 88% is more like 80 or below ;). I DEFINITELY think that's part of the dynamic.

applepear86
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Post by applepear86 »

olds442jetaway wrote:
Fri Dec 24, 2021 8:30 pm
Yes, I have used that method as well with success when I have the discipline. I have hit more than one Royal that way at bet 10,15, or 20 after a streak of 15-30 losers on JOB. Unfortunately, I have hit a Royal or two with one coin in.
I've been lucky to never have hit a one coin royal, but I have hit a one coin 4 deuces and my dad a 4 aces and kicker. Quite painful!

FAA
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Post by FAA »

One coin RF in 2014 and three coin RF in February.

onemoretry
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Post by onemoretry »

At times, I get a bit repetitive, but I just can't resist pointing out that there is a very simple solution to the short coin royal problem.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Play 5 and Jive! Watch the sneaky casinos though. Some have gone to 10 or even 15 to get paid the correct amount for the Royal.

applepear86
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Post by applepear86 »

onemoretry wrote:
Mon Dec 27, 2021 8:39 am
At times, I get a bit repetitive, but I just can't resist pointing out that there is a very simple solution to the short coin royal problem.
Let's be honest, in flat betting, your only hope of being ahead is your bigger hits coming up early. Even on 9/6 jacks or better, the average cost of a royal flush is around 1,000 coins for an 800 coin payout, because of the 0.5% juice over the 40,000 or so average expected hands. It's pretty much always a downward play to just straight out flat-bet unless you have some advantage play angle with the player's club or promotions somehow. Now that logic I can admire, when there's an angle! But sitting there on an 8/5 DDB playing one amount the entire time watching your money go out the window 7 times out of 10 isn't entertaining to me at all, it feels like a form of masochism. Flat bet if you have some advantage play angle and have positive EV somehow from it, but if you're playing a game that's 1.5% to 4%+ against you, there's validity to changing your bets around like at the table games. It also lowers your bet average per hour, saving money. And it actually doesn't ruin your results at all in the long run, it just stretches the odds out more. Effectively, you are playing a one coin game alongside a 5 coin game. It doesn't hurt your results except if you have really bad luck and land all your royals and quads on the one coin game all the time. The only extra cost I can think of is the one coin royal discount, and at one coin that's basically nada, especially if it's one denom below your higher game.

onemoretry
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Post by onemoretry »

applepear86 wrote:
Wed Dec 29, 2021 12:13 am
...And it actually doesn't ruin your results at all in the long run, it just stretches the odds out more.
Really? You're already playing a pretty crappy game (96.8%), and then you decide to play an even crappier one (95.6%), and you argue it won't ruin your long term results? Seems illogical to me.

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