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Chasing Royals
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 6:57 am
by FloridaPhil
[quote=BobDancer] It is NOT done on the types of games that show up in jackpot pictures on this site.[/quote]This may be true for Bob Dancer, but it leads players to believe the only way to win long term playing video poker is to use professional strategy. Unfortunately, most recreational players use this strategy on negative expectation games and quickly discover they are making up the "negative" from their bank accounts. This becomes even more disheartening when the expected Royal Flush jackpot doesn’t happen leading to even bigger losses and thoughts of rigged machines and yearning for the old days when the odds were better.You can beat a negative expectation video poker machine long term, but you must rethink the entire process. When using professional strategy on a 100% video poker game, winning relies on hitting your share of Royal Flushes. If they don’t show up on time, you lose no matter how you play. This is true because nearly 2% of your payback is tied up in the Royal alone. If you’re playing for quarters, this means that a $1,000 hand must happen on average about ever 40,000 hands or so. The problem is you are betting $1.25 a hand for hours, weeks or months at a time building up huge losses that you hope will be overcome by one extremely rare hand. Here Mr. Dancer is correct. It is impossible to overcome these losses long term using his strategy on a negative expectation game.The Cheap Strategy does not rely on Royals Flushes to win long term. It works because your losses between wins are reduced by 75% and the chance that a $1,000 quad deuce will happen after you have switched to a higher denomination is greater than waiting for a Royal Flush using traditional strategy. I don’t care about Royals unless I happen to hit one at max coins and that’s a bonus. What I really want to happen is a quad deuce after I have switched to $1 or $5 play. In a normal day’s play, I can make this switch about once an hour. A single coin $1 quad deuce for $200 can make my entire day and a max coin $1 quad deuce or single coin $5 quad deuce goes directly into my long term bankroll. How often do I hit a $1,000 quad deuce? Unlike Mr. Dancer, I like to post my bigger winnings on this website. I am completely open and if someone wants to ride along with me one day while I use the Cheap Strategy you are welcome. You buy lunch...Again, I am not disputing anything Mr. Dancer says except that the only way you can win long term is by using his strategy. If you’re a professional, follow his lead and hope you can duplicate his results. I am positive there are players who make a good living doing this exact thing. On the other hand if you’re a recreational player who is tired of losing all the time, rethink what you are doing and you may be surprised to find you can win after all. The worst thing that can happen is you reduce your loses to a manageable level, play longer with the same money, make the game more exciting and make playing video poker fun again instead of a depression fest.
Re: Chasing Royals
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:05 am
by wildman49
As you have said before Phil when you hit that max bet after the 4 coin win anything can happen at any time, I love the system and a person can play near par rather than max bet all hands and lose 4% year after year. I really don't think there is a way to play 99.54% game for 100 years and only lose .46% at max bet. Math might say it but the 9/6 machines I play don't show it.
Re: Chasing Royals
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 1:44 pm
by FAA
Rely on math, take a bath.Play on the Cheap, the jackpots you'll reap.As you bemoan your VP billRemember the counsel of Florida Phil.©2015
Re: Chasing Royals
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 2:15 pm
by alpax
I am certain that the one game Mr. Dancer is referencing is 9/5 DDB based on the quote. The house edge is too much to be overcome. I think he would want people to play 9/6 DDB with a gimmick that boosts the return.
Mr. Dancer also mentioned it is not done using a money management system with your initials.
Being a long term winner is not just about playing the best games and perfecting a strategy. It also involves having players do underhanded things at the casino.
Rely on math, take a bath.Play on the Cheap, the jackpots you'll reap.As you bemoan your VP billRemember the counsel of Florida Phil.©2015
You are quite a good poet!
Re: Chasing Royals
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 2:23 pm
by FAA
Don't I know it.
Re: Chasing Royals
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 2:56 pm
by BobDancer
The idea that betting one coin per hand when the machine isn't paying --- and then magically shifting to five coins when it's going to yield a big jackpot --- is appealing to some.It's also impossible to predict what the next half-hour will bring at the machine.So if you're playing a 99% game (betting five coins) occasionally and the same game (paying 97%) while playing fewer coins --- this does NOT average to more than 100%. Unless your timing is perfect (which I believe is impossible), you're going to be playing at a bigger disadvantage percentagewise using this system.If you play single coins enough of the time, you will definitely lose less money by using this technique than you would playing this game betting five coins. But there's a huge difference between "losing less" and "winning"You do not have to be a professional to have the discipline to refuse to play games that return this little. Even "tight" casinos sometimes have promotions that are exploitable. Limiting yourself to such times can work. Playing anyway, even when the promotions offered aren't so good, you will end up losing.If that's fine with you, great! I have no problem with recreational gamblers who don't mind losing. Casinos need them to stay in business. Professional players need the casinos to make money from somebody so we can survive. So go for it!But don't ask me to use the same system. Even giving away such a flawed system is costing your friends money. For every person who thinks it helps them, there will be several others who know otherwise.
Re: Chasing Royals
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 5:08 pm
by misterlister
I've been reading about this Cheap strategy in another thread and I agree with Bob that it loads up the machines for other players. Playing less than max credits is some kind of crazy, especially if you do that on bad pay tables.
Re: Chasing Royals
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 5:12 pm
by Vman96
I've been reading about this Cheap strategy in another thread and I agree with Bob that it loads up the machines for other players. Playing less than max credits is some kind of crazy, especially if you do that on bad pay tables.
How does it load things up for other players? Unless you mean a progressive? And with bad paytables, at least you lose less money per hand by betting 1 vs. betting 5 at the same denomination.
Re: Chasing Royals
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 6:53 pm
by FAA
You do load it up on a Prog the 90% of the time you're in conservation mode, since the old meter is rising on your dime. But it's not much more than your dime. A quarter, not the $1.25 for quarter players. And when the time is right, you take your pot shots too. Acceptance of limited jackpot attempts is necessary.
Re: Chasing Royals
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 10:07 pm
by wildman49
But don't ask me to use the same system. Even giving away such a flawed system is costing your friends money. For every person who thinks it helps them, there will be several others who know otherwise.
I'm not afraid of Vegas Bob, to the people who know otherwise, they also are losers long term to these VP games, it's a fact. I don't know Bob's story other then he and his wife hit some big progressive pots 15 years ago that put him on the map, good for him. Here in the Midwest the pay tables are not great for the most part. We do the best with what we have. A) The systems are for low rollersB) If you never worked with one you don't even know how or if it works.C) There are people cutting there losses by 75% and even playing in the black Every game in every casino is there to take a % of your money. Only you have the power to make changes in your game to keep more of what you play on.