The Two Camps

[FloridaPhil]

They don't have any more VLT video poker machines in the Florida Seminole Hard Rocks.   They used to, but they're all gone now.  We still run into them in our travels around the country.  They're usually in some remote tribal casino.  We saw a lot of them a few years ago in Washington State.  We don't play them as we can't tell what the odds actually are.   99.9% of the time we play standard Game King VP machines.

[onemoretry]

"Intelligent Gambling"    A true oxymoron if I ever heard one.  People play VP for all manner of reasons.  
I did not interpret your statement "gambling is all about taking chances" to be restricted to video poker. My response certainly wasn't.

There are many decisions we face in life that can be thought of as gambles, where we have to weigh the costs versus the expected (or hoped for) outcome. Deciding upon embarking on a new business venture, for example, requires a careful analysis of costs before making the plunge.

Your original response, in fact, included such a reference, but it was subsequently edited out. Perhaps you realized you were contradicting yourself, and there can, in fact, be intelligent gambling?

[FloridaPhil]

The major difference in gambling and embarking on a new business venture is that gambling by definition is "playing games of chance for money".  The key word here is "chance".  When I enter into a business venture, there is no random RNG.   Currently, my primary business is investing in stocks and real estate.  I do my research and due diligence and my investments either succeed or fail on their own.  If they fail, there is no one to blame except myself.  When I gamble on VP,  I can do all the research I want, develop all the skill I need, select the perfect opportunity and I may fail because the RNG doesn't perform as predicted.  That's not intelligent to me. It would be totally inaccurate for me to state that NO ONE ever succeeds gambling on VP.   Obviously, some do.   It also depends upon your definition of success.  Looking at professorial VP strictly from a business prospective,  it seems like a terrible business to me.  Not because of any moral or physical issue, because the profit margins are too low for the risk involved.   Government backed CDs currently pay around 2.3%.  Where can you find a zero effort VP game with a 2.3% player advantage where the house guarantees you will get paid?   My stock valuations are up over 10% since January.   I own tax free municipal bonds that are paying 7%.  Real estate values in Florida are currently rising at 10% a year.  Should I cash in all my investments and move to Vegas so I can play 9/6 Jacks?  Even with cash back and other incentives, VP as a business venture just doesn't cut it. I think it's a great idea to learn all you can about VP, play the best games and do everything possible to win.    If that's what you mean by "intelligent gambling", fine.    VP as a business venture?   No thanks.

[billryan]

It would be totally inaccurate for me to state that NO ONE ever succeeds gambling on VP.   Obviously, some do.   It also depends upon your definition of success.  Looking at professorial VP strictly from a business prospective,  it seems like a terrible business to me.  Not because of any moral or physical issue, because the profit margins are too low for the risk involved.   Government backed CDs currently pay around 2.3%.  Where can you find a zero effort VP game with a 2.3% player advantage where the house guarantees you will get paid


It's statements like this that makes me wonder if your wife isn't the brains behind your business.
If you take $100,000 and put it in a CD for a year,at 2.3% you end up with $2300 at the end of the year.
If you churn $100,000 thru a VP machine at a one percent advantage, you get $1,000 every time you cycle it thru.
Do it ten times a week, you get $10,000.
Do it two hundred times a year and you get $200,000 profit.
Comparing what a bank will pay you annually to an edge in a casino is beyond dumb.
I know you aren't a fan of math but would you rather do a bit of work and have $200,000 or do nothing and have $2300?   
Many, many people both here in Nevada and elsewhere easily gain a one percent edge on casinos.
It's very possible to take $100,000 and turn it into a very nice lifestyle and next egg by Advanatage Play.
Stick $100,000 into a CD at 2.3% ( if one can even find one) and you barely keep up with inflation.
Is it guaranteed? Of course not, but nothing in life is. My best friend moved out here ten years ago and after paying a mortgage all that time, his house is still underwater.
A few years ago, one of my friends inherited several million dollars and went to Australia on a dream vacation. Stepped out of his hotel ,looked the wrong way and was hit and killed by a bus.
Even if you put all your money in a nice safe CD, is there any assurance you will live to collect the interest?

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=billryan]If you churn $100,000 thru a VP machine at a one percent advantage, you get $1,000 every time you cycle it thru.
Do it ten times a week, you get $10,000.
Do it two hundred times a year and you get $200,000 profit.
[/quote]How much does Bob charge for those classes you keep plugging?   If APs make that kind of money, why would he want to create more competition? Surely he doesn't believe there are unlimited opportunities.  Seems counterproductive. 

[FAA]

📚 your tickets now! VP nirvana awaits!

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=billryan]If you churn $100,000 thru a VP machine at a one percent advantage, you get $1,000 every time you cycle it thru.
Do it ten times a week, you get $10,000.
Do it two hundred times a year and you get $200,000 profit.[/quote]Here's what this is saying.  It says with an investment of $100,000 you can make a $200,000 profit in one year just by playing VP.  If I tried to sell the public on that they would throw me in jail with Bernie Maydoff.   This whole VP riches idea is ridiculous.  It assumes everything goes right and nothings ever goes wrong.   This is typical of gamblers who never talk about losing, only winning.I have no doubt some people make money playing VP in Vegas.  That's not the issue.  The issue is can you?  Do you have the bankroll, skill, discipline, opportunities and luck to pull this off?  Many people try, few succeed. I know for a fact that I don't.   I'll stick to real returns on real investments.  Those that believe in this stuff can get in the line at South Point.  Good luck.  You're going to need it.

[billryan]

As is your norm, you are looking at things backwards.

You admit that you believe that some people make money off of video poker, so if some people can do it, why couldn't you?
On another site, a young kid from NJ is detailing his experiences as a new BJ player in Vegas. He is crying because he is down about 15 percent of his bankroll.
If thousands, or even hundreds, of people can make a nice living,the question shouldn't be "Can I" but " Why can't I"?
Do you have the proper bankroll?
Do you know Advanced Strategy perfectly?
Do you understand the casino system well enough to know
how to exploit it?
Do you have the discipline to only play at an advantage?
If and when you can honestly answer each of these in the affirmative, there is no reason why you can't be successful. If you have to cross your fingers when answering, chances are you are gambling.
I'm at the point where I can answer YES to two,yesish to one, and not yet to the fourth.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=billryan]You admit that you believe that some people make money off of video poker, so if some people can do it, why couldn't you?[/quote]While you were running through VP cycles this week we closed on a lakefront investment home.  Our profit on this home was $67,200 thank you very much.  The check is in the bank and we're done.Tomorrow my wife and I will be driving down to South Florida for three days of VP and relaxation at the Hollywood Hard Rock and Yes we'll probably lose a couple of bucks.   I'll try not to think about all that work you'll be doing while we're gone.  If you want to gamble your life away, be my guest.  I don't want to be the one to smother your dreams.

[billryan]

$67,000? Wow.
Do that twice more and you can bid on my Amazing Fantasy 15 in the next Comic Link auction. Paid $2,000 for it fifteen years ago.
But I digress.....