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Re: VPW software
Posted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 12:05 am
I am having some serious confusion about a particular hand in the software and I'm almost positive it's a bug in the EV tables. Tell me what you guys think. The game is Deuces Wild. The two hands in question are:
6d 2d Jh Ah Kd
6d 2d Jh Ah 9d
With Kd, the game says hold only the 2d and throw the rest. With 9d, it suggests I hold the 2d Jh Ah. Trying to figure this out was driving me crazy, so I looked at the possible outcomes table to see how the game was calculating the different EV's. I compared only the lines for holding the 2d by itself and, among many other obviously impossible differences, one table says there are 34 more possible "four-deuces" outcomes. Look back at the two hands and explain to me how one can have more possible outcomes of four deuces if I was only dealt one deuce in each hand and I only held the deuce in both cases? Obviously there's a computational error in the tables.
Re: VPW software
Posted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 1:02 am
You didn't specify the pay schedule, so I'm assuming you meant Full Pay Deuces Wild. The analysis may be valid for other schedules as well, but perhaps not all of them.When dealt either hand, you can get 4 deuces in 44 different ways and my version of VPW says that. (Was your statement of 34 a typo?). There are 47 cards remaining in the deck with 3 of them deuces and 44 non-deuces. You can get any one of the 44 non-deuces along with the 3 deuces, which explains why there are 44 different ways.With the K discarded in the first hand, 2AJ makes fewer straights because there are only 3 K's remaining, so 2AJ has a lower value in the first hand than the second.The lone 2 has a lower value in the second hand because the 9 discarded means that there will be fewer straights to be made with the lone 2 than if the K were discarded.Either of these changes, the devaluation of the 2 OR the increased value of the 2AJ in the second hand is enough to change the preferred choice from 2 to 2AJ.
Re: VPW software
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2010 6:27 pm
I agree that Dancer's software is superior to any other out there and I've been using it for years. But I'd love to get anyone's take on the results achieved via VPW vs. the actual experience in the casino.
I've been using the "Mixed" training mode, since I understood it to come as close to the RNG used in the casinos as possible. However, even though I know my play has been consistent between play on VPW and in the casino, I've found that the level of variance in the casino has been WAY higher than on the software.
For example, lately at Harrah's I've been consistently losing somewhere on the order of $400.00 per hour on a 50-cent machine with an expected return of 99.89%. In fact, in my session earlier today, it burned through $100.00 in 7 minutes and another $200.00 in another 20 minutes. I've never lost anywhere near that much in that short a period of time in the VPW software and the total losses for any 2-hour session on the software have never even come close to the losses I experience in the casino (I play at the rate of approximately 600 hands per hour).
I can assure you my play has been at similar near-perfect levels in both situations. Have others experienced this difference and, if so, to what do you attribute the difference? Is it because the VPW software doesn't have a random number generator similar to that of the casino, since it is programmed to feed you certain practice hands with a greater chance of return, or is it something else?
I really don't want to succumb to the temptation to think that Harrah's is somehow manipulating the results, but it's hard to understand how you can have almost 40 non-paying hands in a row (the the $100.00 50-cent loss in 7 minutes referenced above) without something going on. That loss in itself wouldn't bother me so much, since I know that anything is possible in a given short period of time. But it's the overall difference between the loss ranges of the VPW software and at the casino that have me confused.
Does anyone have any thoughts on this issue or have you had a similar experience? Any input would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!