The Two Camps

The lighter side... playing for entertainment, less concerned about "the math."
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alpax
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Re: The Two Camps

Post by alpax »


How much does Bob charge for those classes you keep plugging?   If APs make that kind of money, why would he want to create more competition? Surely he doesn't believe there are unlimited opportunities.  Seems counterproductive. 


Classes are free and everyone at least 21 years old is welcome. Has been that way for years.

Mr. Dancer has stated the main reason to teach classes is to keep the skills sharp.


It's statements like this that makes me wonder if your wife isn't the brains behind your business.


Mr. Dancer already proven FP is not capable of having an intelligent conversation. This entire thread pretty much follows that opinion though I am surprised the argument did not get hostile like usual.

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FloridaPhil
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Post by FloridaPhil »












[quote=alpax]This entire thread pretty much follows that opinion though I am surprised the argument did not get hostile like usual.[/quote]I actually have no problem with these discussions.  I enjoy them and think they are good for the forum as it shows different approaches to VP.  What I object to is Billy's consistent use of words like "stupid", "unintelligent", "fool" or when he insinuates someone is "incapable".   This is "Dancer Talk" and totally unnecessary.  It's only purpose is to intimidate or inflame the other person and avoid talking about the issues.  The reason this thread didn't become hostile is because I refuse to fall for this tactic.   I don't believe Billy or Bob are fools or stupid.  Some of their beliefs are contrary to mine, but stupid....hardly.  All I want from VP is entertainment and I'm willing to pay for it.  If you tattoo the words "STUPID" across everyone's forehead that plays VP and loses, we'll all be walking around looking like Dennis Rodman.  Anyway, I'm on my way to the Hard Rock.  Have a good time while I'm gone.  I'm sure Billy will keep you entertained. 











FAA
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Post by FAA »

The photo supplements have certainly outstayed their welcome.

asteroid
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Post by asteroid »




Fair enough Bill, but you'd better have a bank roll of millions to stifle the variance since natural royals (and quad aces for royal aces bonus poker, and quad aces with a kicker for TDB) are going to have to figure into this - the players club and mailers plus a paytable sans royals (and awaks and quad aces) are unlikely to exceed 100%. Furthermore, machines with the right paytables need to be available in denominations (or higher than a max number of coins of 5) that allow the level of playthrough you are talking about. Players can usually only play less than 800 hands per hour accurately depending on the game. Comp points and mailers fluctuate to the downside, the higher the paytable is that is tracked through the players club card. CDs have no variance. So I agree with you in principal, but folks neglect variance (and the scouting that must take place to find these opportunities) at their own risk.It would be totally inaccurate for me to state that NO ONE ever succeeds gambling on VP.   Obviously, some do.   It also depends upon your definition of success.  Looking at professorial VP strictly from a business prospective,  it seems like a terrible business to me.  Not because of any moral or physical issue, because the profit margins are too low for the risk involved.   Government backed CDs currently pay around 2.3%.  Where can you find a zero effort VP game with a 2.3% player advantage where the house guarantees you will get paid


It's statements like this that makes me wonder if your wife isn't the brains behind your business.
If you take $100,000 and put it in a CD for a year,at 2.3% you end up with $2300 at the end of the year.
If you churn $100,000 thru a VP machine at a one percent advantage, you get $1,000 every time you cycle it thru.
Do it ten times a week, you get $10,000.
Do it two hundred times a year and you get $200,000 profit.
Comparing what a bank will pay you annually to an edge in a casino is beyond dumb.
I know you aren't a fan of math but would you rather do a bit of work and have $200,000 or do nothing and have $2300?   
Many, many people both here in Nevada and elsewhere easily gain a one percent edge on casinos.
It's very possible to take $100,000 and turn it into a very nice lifestyle and next egg by Advanatage Play.
Stick $100,000 into a CD at 2.3% ( if one can even find one) and you barely keep up with inflation.
Is it guaranteed? Of course not, but nothing in life is. My best friend moved out here ten years ago and after paying a mortgage all that time, his house is still underwater.
A few years ago, one of my friends inherited several million dollars and went to Australia on a dream vacation. Stepped out of his hotel ,looked the wrong way and was hit and killed by a bus.
Even if you put all your money in a nice safe CD, is there any assurance you will live to collect the interest?



alpax
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Post by alpax »

The way FP steered this conversation into a business/investment venture based on a simple opinion from OMT about what "intelligent gambling" is what I meant that someone is not capable of holding intelligent conversations to be worthwhile arguing about.




Fair enough Bill, but you'd better have a bank roll of millions to stifle the variance since natural royals (and quad aces for royal aces bonus poker, and quad aces with a kicker for TDB) are going to have to figure into this - the players club and mailers plus a paytable sans royals (and awaks and quad aces) are unlikely to exceed 100%. Furthermore, machines with the right paytables need to be available in denominations (or higher than a max number of coins of 5) that allow the level of playthrough you are talking about. Players can usually only play less than 800 hands per hour accurately depending on the game. Comp points and mailers fluctuate to the downside, the higher the paytable is that is tracked through the players club card. CDs have no variance. So I agree with you in principal, but folks neglect variance (and the scouting that must take place to find these opportunities) at their own risk.


While I am convinced Bill does not play the ultra high variance games Triple Double Bonus or Royal Aces Bonus, you are completely spot on how variance is overlooked. Bill has much much much to learn about it. It makes it sound as if $1000 can be earned for every $100,000. In reality it fluctuates greatly from losing several thousands to winning several thousands.

One can learn from how Dan gets it done. Has a normal weekday job and plays just a few hours here and there when time permits. In the long stretch, Dan will have results and never overreacts to a bad night or a good night.


OTABILL
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Post by OTABILL »

There are two camps. Members of the first opine, agree/disagree each other, point out actual or perceived inaccuracies, discuss experiences, etc. without rancor. The second group populates posts with personal invective, insulting, and demeaning language,
In late 2011/early 2012, there were discussions involving pros, Aps, and recreational players where despite strong differences, there was no personal animosity. Two of these topics were “Objective in playing VP” in “Anything and Everything” which I initiated and “Playing Negative Games” in Video Poker Strategy begun by FP. That is what we should strive for here.
I am a recreational player who attempts to use optimal strategy, have never used one coin play/cheap strategy playing VP, and consider factors in addition to paytable, such as smoke-free, ventilation, playing together with my wife, other amenities and gaming opportunities (e.g. bingo) and comps when choosing a casino (and a VP bank therein).

asteroid
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Post by asteroid »

Yes Alpax. I recently found a casino with a 10x point multiplier day (multiplier includes vp machines), and a vp game (I'm an OEJ fanatic) with 99.94% payback. Giving the player about a .5% edge (100.494%). Using the Wolf Video Poker bankroll assistant spreadsheet below, you can plainly see the staggering (for me at least) bankroll required for 5% risk of ruin ($31,010). Also, look how many hands need to be played for a 75% chance to average a profit of $5,540 (500000 hands). Is this doable ? Of course. There are people with the bankroll, hand speed and inclination to do this, no doubt. All I'm saying to the vp group here is that some dedication, bank roll sufficiency and research are required so that the player knows quantitatively and definitively what they're getting themselves into. So while I do this sort of research, I usually just go for the low hanging fruit free players, like earlier today when I took advantage of a promo where $20 gets you $40 bucks in free play and won an easy $15 for having fun.facebook com upload photos-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The way FP steered this conversation into a business/investment venture based on a simple opinion from OMT about what "intelligent gambling" is what I meant that someone is not capable of holding intelligent conversations to be worthwhile arguing about.

[QUOTE=asteroid]


Fair enough Bill, but you'd better have a bank roll of millions to stifle the variance since natural royals (and quad aces for royal aces bonus poker, and quad aces with a kicker for TDB) are going to have to figure into this - the players club and mailers plus a paytable sans royals (and awaks and quad aces) are unlikely to exceed 100%. Furthermore, machines with the right paytables need to be available in denominations (or higher than a max number of coins of 5) that allow the level of playthrough you are talking about. Players can usually only play less than 800 hands per hour accurately depending on the game. Comp points and mailers fluctuate to the downside, the higher the paytable is that is tracked through the players club card. CDs have no variance. So I agree with you in principal, but folks neglect variance (and the scouting that must take place to find these opportunities) at their own risk.


While I am convinced Bill does not play the ultra high variance games Triple Double Bonus or Royal Aces Bonus, you are completely spot on how variance is overlooked. Bill has much much much to learn about it. It makes it sound as if $1000 can be earned for every $100,000. In reality it fluctuates greatly from losing several thousands to winning several thousands.

One can learn from how Dan gets it done. Has a normal weekday job and plays just a few hours here and there when time permits. In the long stretch, Dan will have results and never overreacts to a bad night or a good night.

[/QUOTE]

billryan
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Post by billryan »

This week, I played one casino that gives cash back of $10 for $1,000 coin in. It's only one a day, but I have four cards, so $4,000 coin in is $40 cash.
SP this month is giving $50 in gas or groceries for $8333 coin in. $83000 in the month is $500 free gas. Enough for most of the year.
Been playing a lot of 7-5 JOB at a local bar. Two reasons, 4OAK wins a wheel spin for an extra 25-150 coins,
and off hours, they have a play $20,get $20 in freeplay offer. The bartenders know me now, so as soon as the $20 is on the meter, they just dump in the other $20.
Another stop has a $10 matchplay for both slots and table.
One place, and I shouldn't even say this, has had a glitch in their system for the last several weeks and it seems like every AP has descended on it.
If I gave the impression that I thought I could turn $100,000 into $200,000 this year, I apologize. Can it be done? Yes! Do people do it? Some!
Frankly, there are just too many opportunities in this town to sit and play VP ten-12 hours a day, even if I had the desire.
I'm beginning to think old Levi Strauss was right.

FAA
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Post by FAA »

Four cards to one casino?! Talk about beating the system. Da Burglar has nothing on you. 🏆

billryan
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Post by billryan »

I don't "find" my cards or use anyone else's without permission.
It's good to have partners. Instead of four people running around, one can do the work of four and share the rewards. I'd love to find or put together a real team but what I right now have is a loose network.

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