MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

[dinghy]

Just a bit more on Vale. While the p/e is important, there are so many factors tugging at the company

The ratios look tasty to me. Price to sales, and price to book: each 1x. Price to cash flow, 3x.

Afaik, the dividend is uncertain because the calculation depends on upcoming financials. Last year's total payout was USD 0.91. If repeated, that would exceed 10% of the current share price.

As I understand, Vale is a low-cost iron ore producer. If the iron price plunges substantially below the current $100 level, some competitors will be forced to shutter production while Vale can continue profitably. Reduced industry production triggers an eventual price rebound. (The cure for low prices is low prices.)

The cost advantage provides a safety net for Vale, but on the other hand the stock price is relatively less likely to run wild in the next boom.

still can’t get my arms around Bitcoin.

Probably the sentiment repels me more than anything. The bitcoin enthusiasts are human megaphones. One of my top stocks is gold miner Alamos Gold. If I search social media for the ticker symbol $AGI, I get a deluge of posts about a crypto coin. Nothing about Alamos. IIRC, the last Alamos quarterly earnings call had one analyst question.

[olds442jetaway]

That looks like a good one. Had a nice run up in 2024. Good luck.

[dinghy]

That looks like a good one.

Commenting on AGI, it looks expensive at a (trailing) PE ratio of around 30, but the company is rapidly progressing. Forward PE is estimated at 16. Expanded production lowers costs by diluting fixed cost significance. For 2026, the company is projecting $1200 all-in cost. The product sells for currently ... $2700 .

The wild card imo is Canada's government. The moron-in-chief has announced his resignation, and the capitalist is 90% to win the election. In theory, this outcome should already be factored into prices, but markets now seem less capable of looking ahead. So I think Canadian operators could bounce as the news approaches and happens.

[olds442jetaway]

As soon as I read his measures on gun control a couple of years ago ( if I make a few enemies here sorry! ), I said to myself…..great we have a Communist as our next door neighbor now! I also just read up on the continued erosion of property rights in Canada over the last several years.

[dinghy]

( if I make a few enemies here sorry! )

Our politicians are just not impressive people, and there's no reason they would be, given their function and how they're selected. Donnie's probably not a dummy, but he's nowhere near as capable as he thinks he is.

As long as we're on the investing topic, I have a new pick: international real estate.

I found this old research paper from the Fed:

https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/wp2017-25.pdf



Returns on housing (slightly) exceeded equities, with less drama. See how the green line is relatively flat compared to the more swingy dashed line.

I don't see a chart for it, but owning both should produce a smoother line than either of the individual lines.

The low covariance of equity and housing returns reveals significant aggregate diversification gains from holding the two asset classes.

The housing component smooths further with worldwide exposure.

One could add yet another layer to this discussion, this time by considering international
diversification. It is not just that housing returns seem to be higher on a rough, risk-adjusted
basis. It is that, while equity returns have become increasingly correlated across countries over
time (specially since WW2), housing returns have remained uncorrelated.

The research data only goes to about 2010, and you see from the green line that housing was already into a downtrend. The subsequent 15 years have been abysmal. The major ETF choices are:

- VNQ - US only
- REET - worldwide
- VNQI - international only

International has lagged badly in both equity and housing. While VNQ has run slightly positive, VNQI is down "a lot." (See what I did there?)

[olds442jetaway]

Right now, I’m looking for divs 7 percent or higher. I might use VNQ for a trade though. It’s beaten up pretty good over the last month or so. Could still get almost 4 percent waiting. Have to see next week how much the fires will affect things. Not looking good out there at all. I’m waiting for PRU to get back in the 80s. I don’t know yet how much their risk exposure to the fires will be yet. So far anytime I bought it in the 80s I made out well and collected over 4 percent while waiting.

[dinghy]

Right now, I’m looking for divs 7 percent or higher. I might use VNQ for a trade though.

I'm vigorously increasing my VNQI position from the previous allocation of zero. Purchase price $38.

I'm not hunting for yield. Dividends can create tax headaches, especially in the real estate sector where many companies are structured as REITs.

Expert opinion: "4 Reasons to Stay Away from VNQI"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/460291 ... -from-vnqi (paywalled - free registration required)

Summary:

(1) erratic dividends
(2) too many stocks
(3) currency risk
(4) technical indicators

All of those reasons are stupid imo. Just buy the Mag 7 and you'll be fine.

[olds442jetaway]

Anyone been checking IONQ? Quantum Computing

[dinghy]

Anyone been checking IONQ? Quantum Computing

Definitely not. I have no edge buying something I don't understand, in the frothiest sector of the market.

[olds442jetaway]

Ditto. I know people that did well but have bailed on it based on recent news.