50 machines versus 10 machines

[ginxxxx]

Ooooow!So maybe just stick with the soup of the day.

[pokeherguy]

While I may sound like I have never played before asking a question like this, shawdowman may remember an earlier post I made in regards to play I have experienced at one casino in which I had very poor results over the corse of almost 130,000 hands. The amount of machines and the low number of players at the casino was given to me in the form of a possibility as to why my results may have been so bad. I didn't agree with it but like some others I don't pretend to know everything.
Now after a follow up conversation in regards to this matter while I understand what they are saying I'm not sure I agree with the theory or not.
 
Casino "A" and Casino "B" have the same paytables and offer the same VP games. The only difference in the two casinos is the amount of players. Casino "A" has very few players while Casino "B" is crowded all the time. The amount of money I take on each trip to the casino in $2K and I play $2 denomination Double Double Bonus Poker at max play. I go to Casino "A" where I am the only one playing VP and play, I am going to play until I lose the $2K or hit a handpay. Now looking at the VP statistics for the frequency of various jackpot hands occuring chances are I won't see one until I go broke that night because I only played around 2,400 hands. Now if I go to Casino "B" with the same $2K and there are 10 people playing just like me meaning that around 24,000 hands are being played that at least would give me a 1 in 10 chance of hitting at least 1 jackpot hand that night. If the situation at Casino "A" versus Casino "B" is the same each trip wouldn't a 1 in 10 chance each trip be better over a long period of time seeing as how there would be far more jackpot hands occuring?
 
Hopefully I've asked the question a little better and don't sound like a retard now.      

[MikeA]

I didn't think you sounded like a "retard" PG.  I just didn't understand where you were going with it.  I did recall the Mississippi/Arkansas situation and speculations that things were not on the up and up with the Racino in Ar.I still maintain that IF the machines are "honest" and the paytables the same, then the number of players or number of machines wouldn't contribute to the return of the game.If folks were playing one casino and not playing the other then either they all KNOW something or the environment is better at one than the other. 

[jm002546]

 There would be 10 times as many jackpots occuring but you would only bethe recipient of 1 of them, with the same frequency as playing alone.

[shadowman]

Another way to think about it. Instead of a machine dealing the cards think what would happen if each player had a person in front of them shuffling a deck of cards before each hand is played. You say "deal" when you want to play the hand, the person stops shuffling and deals out the cards. Since each person shuffling is not at all connected to any of the other shufflers then there is no way for them to control the outcomes.
 
This is, in fact, very similar to the way a legal VP machine works.  Each machine is independent of all the others and your results are determined by exactly when you hit deal.
 
I've mentioned before that I had a similar situation that went on for around 3 years. I just couldn't win a one casino. I now win their regularly. It was just one of those fluke things that can happen with random events. Of course, there is still the possibility that one casinos machines are not legal.

[ansoda]

I like to play early in the day( 9-10 a.m.) when the crowds are sparse. It seems to be the time when I have my good sessions. As soon as it gets busy, noon or so, my "good hits" seem to be seldom. I have thought that it is probably distraction that messes up my karma or something like that. But I enjoy being able to cruise a bank of machines and plop down at one that looks inviting. My wife thinks that the machines  have given up their gold during steady play, and are just waiting to have their plums picked again after a few hours rest. This is the reverse of what Pg is saying, but it works for me. I know that random theory applies here, but maybe some players play more agressively in a crowd and  that affects the outcome. Anyway, this is an interesting thread. I would like to hear more on this.

[cddenver]

 If the situation at Casino "A" versus Casino "B" is the same each trip wouldn't a 1 in 10 chance each trip be better over a long period of time seeing as how there would be far more jackpot hands occuring?
 
The frequency of nice hits you get is based on only the number of hands that YOU play - the play of others doesn't have anything to do with it.
 
To use the example of 10 people playing that you gave, you'll see nights where several hit Aces w/kicker.  You'll see nights where no one hits it.  You'll see nights where one player hits it multiple times, and no one else does.  All different kinds of possible outcomes.
 
If you were to split your play at both Casino "A" and "B" over a period of thousands of hours you'd see that you were hitting those Aces at the same rate at each place regardless of the number of other players present.
 
 
 

[bigsteve5273@yahoo.c]

I also play early, 4a.m.-7a.m., and entirely to avoid distractions. The casino floor is entirely different after most have finally gone to bed. Distractions affect my concentration, accuracy and speed in a negative manner. Randomness and probabablity are difficult for my human brain to grasp. Randomness can only be aproximated mathmatically. Probability gives us only a likelihood of a possible out come. Our brains seek patterns and order where there is none. For the thinking gambler even more so because we are constantly searching for an edge over the odds.    Methinks pokerguy is is coming to terms with true randomness and its occasional nexus with bad luck. Being in a better frame of mind in casino "B" is conducive to winning there though the probability of winning is mathmatically identical in either casino. The traffic in casino "B" could be due to a host of factors obviously other than paytables. Marketing, drink service, friendliness, cleanliness etc. If the preponderance of players in casino "B" are knowledgeable and skilled then wins would occur with greater frequency and this would self perpetuate the concept of luck when in fact it would be hard work and skill combined on the part of the players but I digress. Like all the rest of you, what I really want to know is what , where , when and how can I and pokerguy win big.

[pokeherguy]

{Methinks pokerguy is is coming to terms with true randomness and its occasional nexus with bad luck. }
 
Nope you couldn't farther from the truth. Been playing VP for ten years I believe I understand the concept of true randomness.
 
{There would be 10 times as many jackpots occuring but you would only be the recipient of 1 of them, with the same frequency as playing alone.}
 
Since we are talking about randomness you never know, but the fact that as far as the amount of hands being played and money being spent the numbers say that on average 10 jackpot hands might occur. I may in fact not recieve a single one but I could also hit several on any given night. Also if I can only go to Casino "A" or Casino "B" so many times because of time and money constraints wouldn't it make sense that Casino "B" is a better choice than Casino "A" because everytime I attend Casino "B" the odds are greater because of the greater number of opportunites? Not much of a chance of getting struck by lightening if you don't go where there is a storm. 

[cddenver]

Also if I can only go to Casino "A" or Casino "B" so many times because of time and money constraints wouldn't it make sense that Casino "B" is a better choice than Casino "A" because everytime I attend Casino "B" the odds are greater because of the greater number of opportunites? Not much of a chance of getting struck by lightening if you don't go where there is a storm. 

 
If you were to play 500 hands at both casinos, the number of opportunities for a good one would be the same - 500!