Offer to Fa La La La La.... La la la la: Results (5th card flip)

[oej719]

Yes 2plus 2 does equal four. Do you think he will shut up about his long running testing of the flip card idea, I doubt it. Webman did not tell us if you know who was freshly showered or had 3 day b/o smell and stall beer.

Ok everyone in the pool.

[Eduardo]

new2vp that number of your odds seems a little low to me. I'm not actually calculating anything but are you sure you got the right number of zeros on there? Is there any easy way to do a graph or something that would show a distribution curve for 40% and 6% results over 180 repetitions? That might help me understand it more.While I think you are right that the chances might be very low, this seems a little too too low. But I'm not basing that on anything but intuition.

[cddenver]

new2vp that number of your odds seems a little low to me. I'm not actually calculating anything but are you sure you got the right number of zeros on there? 

 
I, um, noticed that too.  It practically jumped off the page at me, but I didn't want to embarrass him by pointing it out.    Since both you and I spotted it, the number must be wrong.  Gotta be.  I know that I'm right as I've already had my smart pill for the day, though to a casual observer the pill would have looked suspiciously like a breakfast burrito.
 
Just a few minutes ago a fresh e-letter from Rob popped up in my inbox.  He did eat some crow, but in the next breath began the spin control.  "Too small a sample!" 
 
Recently, he'd written that he was satisfied with the results of the (thought) experiment and was calling it quits, but now he says that he'll continue.  I really don't understand that thinking, because continuing to increase his unverified sample size showing 40% flips just allows New2vp to add more zeroes to his "odds against" number, based on a smaller but verified sample. 
 
That last sentence burned off the last of my smart pill, so I think I'll have another one.

[oej719]

Rob is just a want to be hustler.

[shadowman]

CD, I found the comment about "too small a sample" to be hilarious. This is exactly what he has been claiming the people disagreeing with him have been saying. Of course, just the opposite is true. It only takes a small sample when you're dealing with low probability events like card repeats and claiming they happen much more often.

[cddenver]

It only takes a small sample when you're dealing with low probability events like card repeats and claiming they happen much more often.
 
Well, yes, of course all of us smart people understand that ().  Trying to look at it from his POV ("anything can happen in a small sample!") I think it an amazing coincidence that the "anything" was a result so close to the expected value.  Not 80%, 60%, 40%, 20%, but 6.1%.

[oej719]

From that picture of him it looks like he enjoys eating crow, opposum, coon, etc. He is just a fraud. And not a very good one at that.

[shadowman]

I think it an amazing coincidence that the "anything" was a result so close to the expected value.  Not 80%, 60%, 40%, 20%, but 6.1%.


 
No, I don't think it's that unusual. The sample size is big enough in this case. Getting exactly 6.1% may be unusual but if you looked at the probability of getting between 5% and 7% you'd find the number to be quite high.

[cddenver]

[QUOTE=cddenver] I think it an amazing coincidence that the "anything" was a result so close to the expected value.  Not 80%, 60%, 40%, 20%, but 6.1%.


 
No, I don't think it's that unusual. The sample size is big enough in this case. Getting exactly 6.1% may be unusual but if you looked at the probability of getting between 5% and 7% you'd find the number to be quite high.[/QUOTE]



 

I was being facetious.  Ok, ok, I was actually being sarcastic. 

[rolanddude]

Well, Well, Well !I stay away from here for a couple of months and look what all happens!!Just read Rob's e-letter.  As I have always found with him...he reports what is what.  After reading it this morning I came straight here to see what was being said.  I started by going back and reading Webman's offer/challenge.  Then I read only the first two pages of that post.  I started laughing my a** off when I saw that every regular poster here said that Rob would be a no-show or have conditions.     I wondered what you guys would have to say now.  I guessed right... it is as though y'all forgot what you said about he'll never show up.  Or,  he will be afraid.  Or, he will be too drunk to remember...etc.Results were verified.  Rob even had his picture taken by Webman, I think, only to shove everything that you guys say about him right back at ya!  Kinda funny from where I sit!!!  Maybe Webman and Rob are in cahoots and the next big thing they will promote is Rob's uncanny ability to hold 1 Ace and get 4 very regularly.  Hmmm!  Against better strategy holds I might add.  Hmmm!  Maybe, I'll do my own study on that!!!   heheheheIt was also very funny to see that you guys (OEJ especially) still insinuate that Rob and I are one in the same.  That is pretty entertaining stuff to read.   Today is the first time I have either visited or logged on since March of this year.   I got OEJ's private message about running, hiding, and something about "Little Black Sambo"?  (Are You Racist OEJ? !!!)  Same ol' retarded sh** that I remember about some posters in this place.  I did figure out what OEJ actually stands for ... O verly  E nvious  J ackass!!If you all were interested...  I am doing very well since my chemo.  I am still in complete remission.  There are still some side effects that I am dealing with but overall I am happy to get back to some semblence of my life.  Me and my lovely wife and daughter just returned this morning from being on a Carnival Cruise to Nassau, Bahamas.  It was great!  Didn't play VP on the ship or in Nassau.  The pay tables were horrible.  (ex. Bonus Poker . . .  1, 1, 3, 4, 10 ...;  DDB  6/5...; etc. )  I did play Blackjack.  I felt like Clark on "Lampoon's Vegas Vacation" me and the dealer.  In 30 minutes I pushed 6 Blackjacks with him.  Maybe that shuffler thingy is... just kidding.You guys have a nice day!Joe Carter