Over betting your bank roll for a large advantage

[backsider]

[QUOTE=double][QUOTE=billy joe] ...since the casino has the advantage, even on positive EV games... 

 
What???
 
 
Edited to add: I re-read your post billy joe, and I think what you meant is that even on advantage games there is still a chance of busting (losing) one's bankroll.
 [/QUOTE]
Mule, I understand your point, but I still feel as though the casinos have the advantage on positive EV VP games. If the casino did not feel that they had the advantage, the game would not be on their casino floor. 
 
You have to play perfect strategy, and have a bankroll to survive the dips, in order to achieve that positive EV. Most players do not have the knowledge, patience or money to do that consistently. [/QUOTE]

This is sensible thinking billy and it wont go over well with the resident sharpies. These guys make it appear like all the casino has to do is put in a better than 100% game, in theory, or somehow build up a less than 100% game with extras, and they will beat the casinos. Hogwash of course. Casinos all over this state and probably many others have great sounding promotions all the time that the sharpies flock to. I dont see them closing.

This play the OP mentioned is for how long? If Bob Dancer makes a special trip to play it then I would think it is worthwhile. If not, drink beer and wonder.

[Quad Deuces]

You are acknowledging the fact that:[quote]You have to play perfect strategy, and have a bankroll to
survive the dips, in order to achieve that positive EV. Most players do
not have the knowledge, patience or money to do that consistently. [/quote]Nobody is saying that the casino doesn't have an overall advantage on the > 100% opportunities due to poor play.  If the machines didn't make money they'd pull them.  But if you 1, play perfect strategy, 2, only play when you have an edge and 3, look at long-term rather than short term results, Video Poker is a beatable game.  I don't care about the overall take of a machine to the casino.  All I care about is what happens when my butt's in the seat.

[damule]

[QUOTE=double][QUOTE=billy joe] ...since the casino has the advantage, even on positive EV games... 

 
What???
 
 
Edited to add: I re-read your post billy joe, and I think what you meant is that even on advantage games there is still a chance of busting (losing) one's bankroll.
 [/QUOTE]
Mule, I understand your point, but I still feel as though the casinos have the advantage on positive EV VP games. If the casino did not feel that they had the advantage, the game would not be on their casino floor. 
 
You have to play perfect strategy, and have a bankroll to survive the dips, in order to achieve that positive EV. Most players do not have the knowledge, patience or money to do that consistently. [/QUOTE]billyjoe,I agree 100% with this assessment.

[mrgrandpiano]

I would add that perfect strategy isn't required.  As long as your errors are small in lost EV then you can tolerate them, especially if you can increase your play speed. Also, a player's bankroll doesn't change the expected EV to either him/herself or to the casino, unless it makes the player make more errors. Remember that EV is for every hand, not just some long term consideration. I agree however that the casinos are making money on +EV machines because many people don't play a strategy sufficient to get to 100% payback.  Also, many players switch between games and that makes playing correctly more difficult.  Again, bankroll has nothing to do with the casino's take, just on the player's ability to exploit the favorable situation.

[brmcc74]

[QUOTE=double][QUOTE=billy joe] ...since the casino has the advantage, even on positive EV games... 

 
What???
 
 
Edited to add: I re-read your post billy joe, and I think what you meant is that even on advantage games there is still a chance of busting (losing) one's bankroll.
 [/QUOTE]
Mule, I understand your point, but I still feel as though the casinos have the advantage on positive EV VP games. If the casino did not feel that they had the advantage, the game would not be on their casino floor. 
 
You have to play perfect strategy, and have a bankroll to survive the dips, in order to achieve that positive EV. Most players do not have the knowledge, patience or money to do that consistently. [/QUOTE] 100% CORRECT=
This is what 99% of people dont understand. Yes there are positive games, but chances are you will go bust before you can achieve or exploit them. Also the % of these is very small in relation to your average wager. The casino isnt likely to be affected by any vp players bkrl. Thats what separates these "Pro's" from the rest.

[BobDancer]

I personally would go for this In my "Million Dollar Video Poker" book I outlined what I felt were the appropriate rules for making what I called a "pot shot." They included:          1.    Having a MUCH larger than usual edge         2.    Setting a definite stop limit and sticking to it.         3.    Setting the stop limit low enough that a good percentage of my bankroll would still be intact if the experiment failed.          I know more about bankroll now than I did when I wrote that but this sounds like something I'd go for.          Good luck --- you can certainly use that here. Bob  

[BobDancer]

In today's world it's probably prudent to add to my previous post. I am not guaranteeing your success. While I indeed would go for it, part of the risk of failing would be how devastated you are when you fail. I know myself well enough to know that I could handle it. I don't know you at all.  If you fail and are devastated, I promise to feel sorry for you. I will not be sending you any money. My recommendation comes with a --- "DO IT AT YOUR OWN RISK" disclaimer. Bob

[shadowman]

Bob, the problem is the OP specified losing would be a significant loss to his current bankroll. I would likely go for this as well, but you and I have the bankroll and losing wouldn't be a significant loss.
 
My recommendation is for ACVPchamp to look for some backers. I wouldn't touch it without at least 4x the bankroll mentioned.

[ACVPchamp]

I appreciate all the input from everyone. I am looking at this as a short term play. I will start with 1 6-8hour session/trip and see how it goes and evaluate from there as to if i would like to keep playing at this advantage. Everytime I walk in to a casino I am fully prepared to walk out without a dollar in my pocket. So I will not be "devastated" to go bust.

Hopefully the promo is still running as it was last time I was there and they haven't increased the ammount of coin in required for a slot dollar bonus. I am planning on documenting my play and bonuses. I will report back here for the people that are interested in what my EV ends up to be.

What intrigues me about this is, I will receive a minimum of a %1 advantage with the promo. It could only go higher from there, it's very possible I will receive a %2-3% advance or even more.

[ACVPchamp]

You do realize that most casinos do not comp the same on vp machines as slots right?  Did you take that into your calculations?  You usually need to bet more to even get $1 back.

These calculations were conducted using a VP machine on my last visit.