How to prove my 76% "DUD" Rate

[shadowman]

The silliness continues. Everyone has losing streaks. You would prove nothing by demonstrating you have lost. In fact, for all we know you are a very poor player and your results reflect your skill level.

When will you realize that anecdotal claims are meaningless? Let me explain how the scientific process works. You define an experiment to test your theory and document it. You then do the experiment keeping careful records. You document the results.

[Tedlark]

  Shadow you are a math guy and I seem to remember that the creator of this post has said before that he doesn't believe basic math when it comes to video poker. Having this attitude toward math and science when it comes to applying it to video poker would greatly inhibit a person's ability to understand the connection and how to use them.
 
 

[DaBurglar]

The silliness continues. Everyone has losing streaks. You would prove nothing by demonstrating you have lost. In fact, for all we know you are a very poor player and your results reflect your skill level.
 Well someone is taking either themself, this forum, ME Personally, or VideoPoker in general wayyyy too seriously to make posts/statements like this! In saying this, let me first make very clear that it has nothing to do with you calling me a "poor player", I am perfectly fine with that....in fact, it is a logical byproduct and evolution of my original choice to share with the forum my horrible results in AC as of late.  When a person opens up like I did and shares such info, it exposes them to all kinds of potential responses and backlash.   If a player states that he has had a zero-value hand rate of over 75% during a 6 month period in which he played in excess of 300,000 total video poker hands, when the "normal" expected rate is 60%, it is reasonable to expect some people to simply dismiss him as a terrible player who has no clue what he is doing. I have no doubt that you Shadowman, are NOT a poor player.....I can just tell by your posts, as well as your statement that you are a very profitable player...... you clearly are NOT a poor player.  But even if I did feel you were a poor player, I'd probably refrain from saying so....thats one of the differences between you and me.     I think people in general on this forum misinterpret my jocularity, irreverence and sense of humor for some perceived lack of intellectual sophistication.   If this is in fact the case, let me encourage you to correct it, without me posting my resume on this forum!  Of course, if i did post my education and employment history and test scores and a letter of reccomendation from the childrens television workshop, how could you ever be certain they are real and not ffraudulent or forgeries???    Which leads me to......   When will you realize that anecdotal claims are meaningless? Let me explain how the scientific process works. You define an experiment to test your theory and document it. You then do the experiment keeping careful records. You document the results.  First off, I find this condescending post/statement utterly hillarious....from which 6th grade Earth Science text book did you plagiarize those few sentences? Second, This is a forum, where people come to share on a whole slew of topics relating (but nor limitied to) Video Poker.   Chief amongst what people share here are PERSONAL EXPERIENCES, which often encompass a person stating (or "claiming") that something happened somewhere.....in other words, an anecdotal account!   So wtf Shadowman???  Do you now want everyone to have some kind of AUTHENTICATION Certificate for every claim or statement made here?     When (and WHY) did anecdotal claims suddenly become Meaningless?       How cynical are you really? Here's the inevitable logic of  what you are saying and where it will inevitably lead:  All those pictures people post of their wins, well they dont prove anything and are thus, "meaningless" because they could have just snapped those pictures from ANYONE's (another player's) machine screen!   There's no proof that they really, truly belong to the person claiming it.... Now, before anyone starts time-stamping their jackpot photos and/or inserting their handome faces into the frame, or a copy of that day's local newspaper or a copy of the w-2g with all their personal info on it, know that I am NOT advocating ANYTHING along those lines.   I choose to believe what everyone posts (i.e. "claims")  here in this forum until I have a solid reason not to believe them....doesnt mean I swallow hook line and sinker what someone posts or claims every single time, but I choose to give everyone the benefit of the doubt.  Finally, this is still Video Poker, not Genetics or Organic Chemistry or (everyone's favorite cliche) ROCKET SCIENCE!   I dont feel the need to "structure" my experiments to satisfy an unsatisfiable audience such as Shadowman, or Quad 2s, or Mr. Onemoretry or whomever out there that feels threatened by my horrible figures as of late in AC and the possible implications of those figures on the integrity of the game of VP.    But I have made it clear and known in the past that I DO usually record and keep detailed records of my play, and have done so for a long long time, going back many years and encompassing a variety of places and locales (Vegas, Reno, TAHOE, AC and others) In fact, it is PRECISELY BECAUSE I kept records of previous VP playing that I was able to clearly demonstrate and prove that what I experienced these past 6+ months in AC were so far off the beaten path of reasonable normal expectations, that the difference was so stark that I felt compelled to share it and take such a strong stance. But despite your attempts to get me to paint myself into a corner, I have not come out and CONCLUSIVELY stated that my play the last few months PROVES beyond any doubt that VP in AC is one thing or another....I am just stating that SOMETHING seems terribly amiss and certainly requires further investigation and study, as well as vigilance and caution....now how can you possibly argue or disagree with that simple premise???   really, all I was looking for, was some acknolwedgement of this....  But if you (and again, by "you" I mean ANYONE here)  want to simply dismiss me as an idiot and/or call me a liar, then at least have the STONES and just come out and say it.....

[sam434343]

Daburglar, I see you are holding a 1985 Franklin Roosi dime and what you see is the head of past president and on the back are torchs, if my eye sight is good enuff to see it,lol! As humanbeing we have tendency only see one side of the coin as like other things in are life and some people look at tail of the coin and say they see torchs by looking at the tail of the coin. These aprox. figures 50%people see the head and other 50%say they see the tails(torchs) again aprox. figures 40% of people say they see heads and tail of the coin, now keep in mind people i ask this question are in face to face with me so i question more to see what they give for answer, and i ask the question again what do you see that increase the number of people who see both side heads and tails. Now keep in mind i have done this to hundreds if not thousands of people over my life time, and less than 1% if any i can remeber have ever said i see heads and tails of coin and the rim of the coin that connects both sides together. What i am saying is wether your right or wrong on any given situation both side are connected together like it or not!Now Daburglar i think you are one these people if we were face and i ask you enuff time you would be one of these less than 1% people because you are willing to look at things from all different angles(now i could be 100% wrong but i dont think so) Now you take these other people that post in here and all they can see is one side, and make jokes about you and insult(not outright call you a wack) in away that dosnt get them into much trouble, why do they do that because they think there 100% right and all there knoledge come from book and what they were taught in a school or by VP expert. Daburglar i hold more respect for person like you wether your right or wrong on AC reason you think out side the regular box of things, these other people dont and if they did there world would fall apart,so no matter,  your more of a person than they ever will be even with all there education.People down grade others(people) for many reason, but that another story! Sam

[Vman96]

If a player states that he has had a zero-value hand rate of over 75% during a 6 month period in which he played in excess of 300,000 total video poker hands, when the "normal" expected rate is 60%, it is reasonable to expect some people to simply dismiss him as a terrible player who has no clue what he is doing.


Well, there only about 3 logical explanations for this:

1) The machines are clearly rigged because random machines cannot do this even if a player attempts to play somewhat optimally (90% accuracy or better). If this is true, I strongly suggest to stop playing immediately, or attempt to begin a legal crusade.

2) DaBurglar is intentionally playing to lose because he gets some psychological benefit from losing. Or you love hitting Royals so much, you always go for a Royal. Even if you did this, you still are going to get a win or a push 30.6% on average and make losing hands less than (69.4%) you are currently claiming!!!

From the Wizard of Odds:
http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/ ... obability/

FYI, the probability of making a Royal with this strategy is 1 in 23,081 vs. 1 in 40,391 with optimal strategy.

Royal Seeker Return Table
Hand     Payoff     Probability     Return
Royal Flush     800     0.000043     0.034661
Straight Flush     50     0.000029     0.001472
4 Of A Kind     25     0.000222     0.005561
Full House     9     0.001363     0.012268
Flush     6     0.00428     0.025681
Straight     4     0.004548     0.018191
3 Of A Kind     3     0.020353     0.061058
Two Pair     2     0.046374     0.092749
Jacks Or Better     1     0.228543     0.228543
Nothing     0     0.694243     0
Total     0     1     0.48018

3) You are lying about your data on the Internet.

[DaBurglar]

Thanks Sam, I dont think that highly of myself, and I assure you I am not nearly as "great" as you make me out to be, but thanks for the kind words.    I do not think everyone else is as against me or thinks I am a "whack" to the extent you might, but even if they did I am ok with that because that is what this forum is about.......the exchange of ideas, opinions, views, experience and even heated debates and disagreements. I've said before, if all this forum consisted of was people agreeing with each other and making insipid fawning posts patting each other on the back after a win and consoling each other after a loss then this place would blow as much as Doritos blow.....  I've learned quite a bit since I joined here, and I have enjoyed my time reading and posting here as well.    You want to know what I really want?  I want to believe VP is exactly what we have a right to expect it to be, what we have always assumed it to be.....a far superior game than slots, where we can always trust the paytable on front to be the final word on the game's Return %, and that we can ALWAYS believe that each and every hand is a fair result from a properly functioning RNG.   I WANT to believe this and I WANT to play and relax and have fun in the environs of Atlantic City, with its ocean views and Boardwalk and mild climate (compared to the EXTREMES of VEGAS) and beach scene.......all this is made IMPOSSIBLE by video poker that is as poor as what I have experienced lately.  And if in fact the VP is and has always been fair and working properly, then that means my results are simply "what it is", which means the game is not sustainable.   If, on the other hand, my 76% duds is due to some defect or nefarious actions or simply the casinos becoming SUPER TIGHT and setting the machines as low as possible, then the implications are that at some point in the future things will be rectified somehow or in someway, the machines may be loosened up and VOILA!  I'll experience a revival of sorts.......I can hope anyway right?  And until certain people on this forum play in AC themselves, and post AUTHENTIC VERIFIABLE PICTURES of all their jackpots in AC Casinos, they can criticize-condemn-complain all they want about me and my posts concerning my efforts in AC and it will mean nothing.

[DaBurglar]

[QUOTE=DaBurglar]If a player states that he has had a zero-value hand rate of over 75% during a 6 month period in which he played in excess of 300,000 total video poker hands, when the "normal" expected rate is 60%, it is reasonable to expect some people to simply dismiss him as a terrible player who has no clue what he is doing.


Well, there only about 3 logical explanations for this:

1) The machines are clearly rigged because random machines cannot do this even if a player attempts to play somewhat optimally (90% accuracy or better). If this is true, I strongly suggest to stop playing immediately, or attempt to begin a legal crusade.

2) DaBurglar is intentionally playing to lose because he gets some psychological benefit from losing. Or you love hitting Royals so much, you always go for a Royal. Even if you did this, you still are going to get a win or a push 30.6% on average and make losing hands less than (69.4%) you are currently claiming!!!

From the Wizard of Odds:
http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/ ... obability/

FYI, the probability of making a Royal with this strategy is 1 in 23,081 vs. 1 in 40,391 with optimal strategy.

Royal Seeker Return Table
Hand     Payoff     Probability     Return
Royal Flush     800     0.000043     0.034661
Straight Flush     50     0.000029     0.001472
4 Of A Kind     25     0.000222     0.005561
Full House     9     0.001363     0.012268
Flush     6     0.00428     0.025681
Straight     4     0.004548     0.018191
3 Of A Kind     3     0.020353     0.061058
Two Pair     2     0.046374     0.092749
Jacks Or Better     1     0.228543     0.228543
Nothing     0     0.694243     0
Total     0     1     0.48018

3) You are lying about your data on the Internet.[/QUOTE]
   Well VMAN, first off in response to this latest post of yours, let me at least say I appreciate your style of posting and the ATTEMPT anyway to refrain from snottiness and condescening tones and keep it logical and analytical.   ANd I respect your ability to at least come out and say I might be lying (lol) without actually calling me a liar!!  But I disagree with a big part of your premise, and I actually think Shadowman himself might back me up on this ONE Small point at least:   it is NOT Impossible for a legit non-rigged machine to deal hands at a 75% dud rate.    And I have all along conceded that it is possible to get this crappy of a result and still be a straight up legit machine.    I know this because in the past, while playing in places as diverse as the casinos all around the Las Vegas Area, Up in Reno, in Laughlin and even once in Tahoe, I have had some sessions where I totally busted out very quickly and hit almost nothing.   Checking my stats and records, I have found a number of times where I had no-value hand rates in the 70-80% range, times where I lost 300-400 bucks in a very short time frame simply because I hit NOTHING!    But Never for an extended period of time across multiple machines in multiple casinos.   For instance, in the Orleans in Vegas, playing 9/5 BONUS Poker back in 2005, I lost $350 bucks on 2 machines in a very short period of time and had a Dud rate of 79%!!!    But I went across the casino later that night and won close to 500 bucks playing 9/6 JOB and during te of his session I had very few "Big hits" (3 quads), just a ton of full houses and Straights, etc over a long session.   My dud rate for this time was less than 35%. This last 6 months of futility in AC was spread over a number of different machines and games, and primarily took place in the AC CLUB, Resorts, Caesars, Ballys, The Trop, Showboat, the Taj  and the plaza.   It seems unlikely, but not impossible, that I could hit so many machines when they were in the midst of a cold snap.

[shadowman]

Well someone is taking either themself, this forum, ME Personally, or VideoPoker in general wayyyy too seriously to make posts/statements like this!

To the contrary ... why would anyone take you seriously.

When a person opens up like I did and shares such info, it exposes them to all kinds of potential responses and backlash. If a player states that he has had a zero-value hand rate of over 75% during a 6 month period in which he played in excess of 300,000 total video poker hands, when the "normal" expected rate is 60%, it is reasonable to expect some people to simply dismiss him as a terrible player who has no clue what he is doing.

All I said was you should quit verbalizing all this fluff and do a real test. If they show what you have been inferring then you will have something to base your claims. Until then you are accomplishing nothing.

But even if I did feel you were a poor player, I'd probably refrain from saying so....thats one of the differences between you and me.

I never said you were a poor player. I said we don't know your skills and hence we cannot infer anything from your words.

First off, I find this condescending post/statement utterly hillarious....from which 6th grade Earth Science text book did you plagiarize those few sentences?

I tried to keep it simple. If you find simplicity condescending that is your problem.

You do realize your statement is completely condescending, right?

Finally, this is still Video Poker, not Genetics or Organic Chemistry or (everyone's favorite cliche) ROCKET SCIENCE!   I dont feel the need to "structure" my experiments to satisfy an unsatisfiable audience such as Shadowman, or Quad 2s, or Mr. Onemoretry or whomever out there that feels threatened by my horrible figures as of late in AC and the possible implications of those figures on the integrity of the game of VP.

If you "don't feel the need" why to you keep posing the same thing over and over again? It gets repetitious and doesn't accomplish anything.

But if you (and again, by "you" I mean ANYONE here)  want to simply dismiss me as an idiot and/or call me a liar, then at least have the STONES and just come out and say it.....


Stupid is as stupid does.

[DaBurglar]

  Shadow you are a math guy and I seem to remember that the creator of this post has said before that he doesn't believe basic math when it comes to video poker. Having this attitude toward math and science when it comes to applying it to video poker would greatly inhibit a person's ability to understand the connection and how to use them.
 
  Ok I missed this the first time I read thru.........wtf does this mean?   Where do you get that I "do not believe in basic math?"?????? wtf does that mean???    When did I ever say that (whatever it does mean)....???  So much for having fun and screwing around and being silly ...... I graduated from Harvard in 1992 with a degree in Government and Economics, and my work experience the past 20 years has exposed me to a lot and taught me a lot.....now, I am not sure just what exactly a "math guy" encompasses or entails, but I am certain that Shadowman, whatever his background and pedigree, understands everything there is to know about the math behind Video poker, playing the game, and any tangent issues (or more importantly, where to look and how to figure out how to play if the answer isnt obvious).......and so do I.   Perhaps you do to Ted......because, afterall, videopoker is pretty simple.    I'm looking for someone who has played in AC recently, and played a lot, to come forward with some substantial input to either support or counter my results as of late, and provide their own opinions and conclusions, even if they are ....."anecdotal" or based on anecdotal evidence.      Can anyone out there provide this???

[Vman96]

But I disagree with a big part of your premise, and I actually think Shadowman himself might back me up on this ONE Small point at least:   it is NOT Impossible for a legit non-rigged machine to deal hands at a 75% dud rate.    And I have all along conceded that it is possible to get this crappy of a result and still be a straight up legit machine.   [

No, you're right, what you claim is not impossible. But the biggest problem with your claim is that you have maintained this nonpaying hand rate over 300,000 hands. To have a 75% rate for final hands that are nonpaying over 300,000 hands when playing optimal 9/6 JoB on a randomly dealt machine is SO unlikely, it will not be ever witnessed by man.

Your claim is 250 standard deviations (SD) below expectation. Microsoft Excel can't even calculate it. Wolfram Alpha can only calculate something that is 150 SDs below expectations for free (and I'm not paying money to more accurately calculate your claim) as seen here:

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1- ... %282%29%29

So for your event, we have to use an approximation for the upper bound of likelihood:

http://stats.stackexchange.com/question ... e-z-scores

Pr(Z>z)d(z*sqrt(2*PI))*e^(-z^2/2)

where PI = 3.141592..., e=2.718281828459045..., and z is the absolute value of your z-score (SDs above/below the mean) which is 250.

Using this formula leads to a probability of:

3.1652686803636191828331357361274 x 10^-13575

or 1 in 3.1592894663372531604227400103373 x 10^13574

that is 1 in (deep breath)

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No random machine will ever experience this UNLESS you intentionally play to increase your losing hand rate.