accuracy

[misterlister]

I don't understand why anyone would exaggerate their gaming results or, in the absence of any evidence, accuse someone else of doing so. Hey, it's us against the house, remember?

How about in order to sell more strategy cards and books. Or for many, to keep the wife or husband or the nosey neighbor comfortable.

[FAA]

Hey, it's us against the house, remember?--------------------------------------------------------And we know how that goes. All together now, "the house always wins."Let's just maximize opportunities to have as many net win days as possible.

[BobDancer]

Hello i am curious if the bob dancer winners guides are accurate and if they are accurate how can this be proven or is it just a type of system? even the wizard of odds said that 2 different authors could come up with a different answer to a hand so how is that accurate?

Accuracy can be determined by looking at software. Whether you use Video Poker for Winners, WinPoker, or the wizard's hand analyzer, all of them come up with the same numbers. Unfortunately the "correct holds" on this site leave a lot to be desired. that's easily correctable. I'll be meeting with Mike Fields (vice president of videopoker.com) next week and correcting these "correct holds" is one of the things on the agenda.Accuracy is one feature of a good strategy. It is not the only one --- by far. Ease of use is a big, important factor. I estimate that 99% of players could not understand a 100% completely accurate strategy. While there are simple games, like 9/6 JoB where perfection is fairly easily attainable, many other games have LOTS and LOTS of exceptions. When we're trying to simplify, each author can come up with a slightly different strategy. But among professional players, there is essentially zero debate as to what the best play is on any hand. (There are a few tie hands --- but not many).In the NSU Winner's Guide, for example, the appendix list several hundred exceptions to the ADVANCED strategy. The Advanced strategy is too complicated for many. The basic strategy is usually within 0.03% of perfect (which is three times as good as a tenth of a percent). the recreational strategy is usually with 0.1%. And the beginner strategy is usually within 0.2%.Each reader gets to choose the degree of precision he wants. Players have different goals. Anyone reading this thread will see some players interested in getting pretty close to perfection --- and other players quite satisfied with a much lesser strategy. (Even the beginner strategy recommends against holding a suited ace-ten in most versions of DW --- or AK or AQ or AJ for that matter. These are really pretty bad plays. Especially for players recommending playing less than max coins where you only get 250-for-1 rather than 800-for-1 when the natural royal comes in. Be careful who you take advice from! If you can't judge which "authority" is best, check out the hands on computer software. The software doesn't have any agenda.)The value of the Winner's Guides isn't so much the strategies --- but rather the explanation that goes along with the strategies. Let's say you are trying to learn 9/6 Double Double Bonus. Do you know       1.   Why from unsuited AQJ you hold QJ but from AKJ you hold the A by itself?        2.  Why you hold an unsuited 2346 in this game but you'd never hold that in Jacks or Better?         3.  Why you hold the pair from an unsuited 54567 but not from 889Tj?         4.   Why you never hold just the KK from KK443?         5.   With the cards in quotes suited with each other, do you know why "KQ" '234' isn't played the same as "KJ" '345'?         6.   Do you know why 'KT4' 73 is played differently in 10/6 DDB, 9/6 DDB, and 9/5 DDB?                    If you know all of these things with certainty, you're ready for a more advanced strategy. Do you know:        a.   From K 'JT' plus two other cards, when do you hold KJ and when do you hold 'JT'?        b.  Do you know when 'KQJ' is preferred to KK and when it isn't?        c.   Although you usually hold QJ from an unsuited AQJ, do you know all of the exceptions?        d.   From A 'JT', do you know when to hold the A by itself and when to hold 'JT'? Do you know which is the default play?         These are examples of the advanced strategy that most recreational players don't get into --- but many of the good players do master.            If you want to learn the games better, the Winner's Guides are the best information available on these games. Although there are a few typos, the accuracy of the guides is unchallenged. No other author has written more than a few pages on any of these games. The Winner's Guides are 120 pages or so.          There isn't a lot of my "personality" in the books. They are step-by-step "how to play the hands" books. If you're serious about winning at video poker, basically the Winner's Guides should be required reading. Each was created by two bright players each trying their best with the best available tools at that time, and we boiled the information down into a very affordable package.           If you've decided you don't like me for whatever reason and it ticks you off to buy anything where I might get a $5 royalty, you're making life a lot more difficult on yourself over a rather small amount of money. Yes I will take the money (my co-author and myself each have earned about 50 cents an hour so far in creating the Winner's Guides), it's hardly a life-changing amount for any of us. Bob                

[BobDancer]

Hey, it's us against the house, remember? . . . -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Hardly.Last time you hit a $1,000 royal flush, did you send a penny each to 100,000 members of this forum? If you really believe we're all in this together, why are you being so selfish?When I hit a $20,000 jackpot, do you really expect me to give you a piece of it? I strongly advise you not to hold your breath.It's actually the players against each other. Losers end up subsidizing the winners, with the house taking a piece of the action for providing the games. Thinking the system works otherwise is naive. there are several recreational players who happily continue to play even though they lose every year. They have fun playing.  I have no problem with that at all. (in fact, the player economy requires that such people exist --- the more the better!) These people keep the system churning, and everybody is happy.I can offer suggestions on how to improve your results, but I can't turn people into better players unless they want to go down that road --- with all the study and discipline that entails. Most people would like to win, but they aren't able and/or willing to do what is required to become winners.I suppose some of them even think it's the players versus the casinos. I can't ever recall a winning player saying that, but perhaps recreational players believe it.Bob

[alpax]

Without being biased, the Winners Guide is the highest quality learning material I've found and there is bar none. I wish it was available for more games such as Triple Bonus Plus, Super Double Bonus, Triple Double Bonus, and Bonus Deuces Wild, but understandably god rest Mr. Daily's soul and 50 cents an hour is not worth the effort.

[alpax]

[QUOTE=FAA]Hey, it's us against the house, remember? . . . -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Hardly.Last time you hit a $1,000 royal flush, did you send a penny each to 100,000 members of this forum? If you really believe we're all in this together, why are you being so selfish?When I hit a $20,000 jackpot, do you really expect me to give you a piece of it? I strongly advise you not to hold your breath.It's actually the players against each other. Losers end up subsidizing the winners, with the house taking a piece of the action for providing the games. Thinking the system works otherwise is naive. there are several recreational players who happily continue to play even though they lose every year. They have fun playing.  I have no problem with that at all. (in fact, the player economy requires that such people exist --- the more the better!) These people keep the system churning, and everybody is happy.I can offer suggestions on how to improve your results, but I can't turn people into better players unless they want to go down that road --- with all the study and discipline that entails. Most people would like to win, but they aren't able and/or willing to do what is required to become winners.I suppose some of them even think it's the players versus the casinos. I can't ever recall a winning player saying that, but perhaps recreational players believe it.Bob


[/QUOTE]

For the most part each person here is playing on their own terms unless they explicitly state they are playing as a group. The casino or house expects to win against every player that plays any game (which is most if not all negative expectation) in the casino with the edge they have big or small.

Not every player that walks into the casino seeks to play video poker or even during a weekday when the best promotions are available. So casinos will have their income to continue to operate and not redistribute the money played unless it is live hold'em poker.

Hence the perspective in the quote was stated was that players are all underdogs facing the casino. Recreational players take joy in today's score more than the serious players, even if a player comes out on top one day, it will be celebrated. Rooting for the house is another cliche is probably frowned upon by the recreational crowd.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=BobDancer](Even the beginner strategy recommends against holding a suited ace-ten in most versions of DW --- or AK or AQ or AJ for that matter. These are really pretty bad plays. Especially for players recommending playing less than max coins where you only get 250-for-1 rather than 800-for-1 when the natural royal comes in.[/quote]Bob is right here.  I never hold A-10, A-K, A-Q or A-J without a deuce when playing single coin.  There are some strategy adjustments you should make when switching from single coin to max even if you are playing for quarters.  I also agree we are all playing against each other although I think it's kind of snobby for him to frame it the way he frequently does.   Playing Cheap is much better for many recreational players because they lose less money overall. He won't say so because it hurts the crop of money he is harvesting.  I see nothing wrong with that.  He's a businessman and I'm a totally recreational player.  There's a big difference in motivation between the two.

[FAA]

The casino/house expects to win against every player that plays any
game (most if not all neg expectation) in the casino with
the edge they have, big or small.
Not every player that walks into the casino seeks to play vp or even during a weekday when the best promotions are available.
So casinos will have their income to continue to operate and not
redistribute the money played unless live hold'em poker.
Hence the perspective in the quote was stated was that players are all underdogs facing the casino.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Thanks. That's what I think Minn was trying to say; I merely quoted him.

[FAA]

(Even the beginner strategy recommends against holding a suited ace-ten
in most versions of DW --- or AK or AQ or AJ for that matter. These are
really pretty bad plays. Esp for players recommending less than max coins where you only get 250-for-1 rather than 800-for-1.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Agreed. It makes no sense in DW. I'd ding myself for such a poor hold!

[FAA]

Playing Cheap is much better for many recreational players because they
lose less money overall. He won't say so because it hurts the crop of
money he is harvesting.  I see nothing wrong with that.  He's a
businessman and I'm a totally recreational player. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Yes. He would benefit both directly and indirectly by the max coin players. They load up machines where he plays and, nationwide, they are more prone to seek out his expertise. Me, I don't mind a quarter a spin loss while watching most of the nearby players go bonkers and vamoose.