Is Video Poker a Game of Skill or Luck

[FloridaPhil]

I think skill lets you play more hands with the same money, it doesn't guarantee more jackpots.   You need luck for that to happen.  The point is luck does enter the equation somewhere along the line. 

[Vman96]

Short term luck...long term skill.

Playing mathematically correct plays will give you the best chance of positive results. However, there will be lucky winners, unlucky people that can't hit crap, and everywhere in between.

[Minn. Fatz]

As a wiser man than I once said, "there is no such thing as luck. Everything is mathematics." Or if you prefer Branch Rickey, "Luck is the residue of design."

[olds442jetaway]

     I could use a little residue about now as far as vp goes. At least so far, I have been lucky in life. Guess that is the important thing.

[brmcc74]

People who say they make money playing vp are simply lieing. Why would casinos allow anyone to win? Even if you had one great player who casinos allowed to play 100%+ games, they know that eventually you're either gonna go broke or exhausted playing vp. As far as the math is concerned please tell me where this is Guaranteed? It's possible sure. If I had a system figured out where I could make money playing vp then I wouldn't be writing books about it and selling strategy cards so that even less available games exist for my taking. It's common sense. Vp machines are equal to a drug habit.. Maybe even harder to stop because it's legal. I don't need to here any experts opinion on this or the people who think they are advantage players. I've lost enough money over the years to know the truth. I know exactly which cards to hold every single time and it don't mean squat. It only lessens your losses. Skill is great but luck trumps skill any day when you're talking vp. If you can afford to play vp occasionally and part with your money as a form of entertainment,then have at it and I guarantee the results will be negative over time. Even if I find myself up for a month or two, what do I get? Crappy gifts, free credit, to play even more until I lose, or free food. Really, free food? Nothing is free in this lifetime. Wake up sheeple vp is a billion dollar enterprise.
Oh and good luck

[New2vp]

With over 369,000 members of this website, it would be hard to believe that not even one of them made money over the last year ... or over the last 5 years.  It is more than likely that at least one of them is over 4.5 standard deviations from the mean in the positive direction as far as outcomes.Certainly there may be some others who are not members of this website who, as brmcc74 notes, does not advertise that fact here or elsewhere and who writes no books or strategy cards.  I might venture to say it is more likely that someone has made more money playing video poker last year than the profit that one can get nowadays from selling strategy cards, but I admit that I do not know that for a fact.Consider the following:1. Aristotle knows and makes all the right plays at video poker.2. Aristotle loses money.3. Therefore, no one can make money at video poker. (Corollary: anyone who says they make money at video poker is a liar).Can anyone spot the logical flaw in this non-Aristotelian syllogism?To get back to the question of this thread, based on the wording of the question, "Is Video Poker a Game of Skill or Luck?" I would have to answer simply "Yes."  But where does the edge lie?Between two equally skillful players getting the same dealt cards, the one having the most luck on the draw will win more money (or lose less).  So it is a game involving luck.Between two equally lucky players, the player that is more skillful at determining holds will win more money (or lose less).  So it is a game involving skill.Over time, luck has a tendency to even out and become average (although perhaps some believe that some people are luckier than others and the random number generator will favor them more than it does their less fortunate brethren).  Over the same time, unless the less skillful player learns, the chasm in skill remains.  So as the luck averages out, eventually skill wins out.  The exact probabilities of the more skillful player will depend on the game, the number of hands, and the disparity in the skill level.If you are someone who believes that luck does not average out, then it is even more difficult to infer that just because your skillful play has not yielded positive results that no one's play could. 

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=new2vp]Over time, luck has a tendency to even out and become average (although
perhaps some believe that some people are luckier than others and the
random number generator will favor them more than it does their less
fortunate brethren).  Over the same time, unless the less skillful
player learns, the chasm in skill remains.  So as the luck averages out,
eventually skill wins out. [/quote]This assumes "over time" will be in the lifetime of a player.    Six Bob Dancer's are playing for a big progressive.  One hits the jackpot and the rest don't.  Who is more skillful?  Skillful players make better decisions giving them more chances at jackpots and better money management allows them to keep more of what they win.   There is no skill that can force a positive number of jackpots to happen over a lifetime.  Being skillful is an advantage.  Being lucky is timing.  Being both is what it takes to make money long term playing video poker.

[onemoretry]

Why would casinos allow anyone to win?
The answer to that question is (assuming a competitive market): Because they have to.

If a casino elected to set their games, paytables and promotions so that no player has even a chance of coming out ahead, two things would happen:

1. Knowledgeable players would leave.

2. The more casual players would soon realize they're not getting much play for their money, and leave, as well.

An empty casino is not much of a money maker.

The challenge for the casinos is to make their games attractive enough to attract, and hold on to, enough of the more casual players to more than compensate for what the small number of winners win, while keeping things tight enough so that they don't "give away the ship".

The challenge for the more serious player, of course, is to be amongst that small number of winners.

[brmcc74]

News flash for you
Casinos do not cater to advantage/knowledgeable players quite the contrary. I used to count cards but guess what happened?
Casinos keep people coming back just like the drug dealer on the corner. These machines are random and if you think that you're gonna out smart or out run a computer long term good luck with that
I'm am very skilled in vp and I will take luck any day, that is if I was still a sucker.

[case]

brmcc74

People do beat casinos on VP. They don't make hundreds of thousands of dollars. Most that are long term winners are small winners and casinos don't really concern themselves.

Onemoretry is right in that people will leave a casino with poor pay tables. Just go into the Downtown Grand in Vegas. The place is a ghost town. When they opened they gave a good VP game and the place was packed. They got scared and reduced the pay tables and well....the place is empty. Not just the good players left but the average players as well. Same thing for the SLS in Vegas. The place put in poor pay tables and no one shows up.

Now go over to Boulder Station who have some full pay and the place is packed. Same with Red Rock casino. Even average players demand good pay tables. The strip can get away with reduced VP because they offer other things to make up for it and cater to the tourists.

Card counting is a different game all together. Casinos consider it cheating (even though they know it is not)

So I agree with Onemoretry. I know of people who beat the same casino for a long time. They don't always win and they don't win much. If you give full pay 95% of the people can't play perfect anyway