What's your take on this Statement...

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=billryan]Of course the best short term strategy is not to play at all.[/quote]I'll have to say I agree with Billy on this one.  Short term, long term, it's all the same. The next best thing to not playing at all is to play close to nothing at all.  Single coin nickels anyone?  

[FAA]

I'm all for close to nothing. If only I could chain my ankle to the quarter VP bank. Grin and bear a short coin RF!

[Onenickelmiracl]

You say a fool would play one hand for a million over a million hands, that actually might not be true. I think the casino would be considered the fool offering one hand, that's why they wont ever do it. 4,000*$200,000=$800,000,000. People in terms of gambling would be better off putting it all on one shot, if they could stop, and at high stakes, people are hard wired to be one and done.

[billryan]

You say a fool would play one hand for a million over a million hands, that actually might not be true. I think the casino would be considered the fool offering one hand, that's why they wont ever do it. 4,000*$200,000=$800,000,000. People in terms of gambling would be better off putting it all on one shot, if they could stop, and at high stakes, people are hard wired to be one and done.

Really? On a game of Video poker, where well over 50% of the time, your return will be zero, you think putting it all on one hand is better than playing a million hands?
Lets look at it like this. Playing it all on one hand, you have over 50% chance of ending up with nothing.
What are the odds you end up with nothing after playing a million hands at a dollar a pop.

[Onenickelmiracl]

[QUOTE=Onenickelmiracl] You say a fool would play one hand for a million over a million hands, that actually might not be true. I think the casino would be considered the fool offering one hand, that's why they wont ever do it. 4,000*$200,000=$800,000,000. People in terms of gambling would be better off putting it all on one shot, if they could stop, and at high stakes, people are hard wired to be one and done.

Really? On a game of Video poker, where well over 50% of the time, your return will be zero, you think putting it all on one hand is better than playing a million hands?
Lets look at it like this. Playing it all on one hand, you have over 50% chance of ending up with nothing.
What are the odds you end up with nothing after playing a million hands at a dollar a pop.
[/QUOTE] Lets say you're playing a game that's 99%, you're pretty much devoting yourself to a ft job, and your job is being guaranteed losing, near $10,000. You could have made more than your loss, just by working at McDonald's. It's really gambling 101 you're arguing against, if you're at a disadvantage, you should gamble on the least amount of decisions, to let variance, aka luck be your friend. In real life anyways, won't take long until a gambler goes from $1 a hand to $2, etc., snowballing. I do believe in a long term optimal strategy for video poker, but not playing, not grinding, playing a limited number of hands at higher stakes, really is better off.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=BillRyan]What are the odds you end up with nothing after playing a million hands at a dollar a pop.[/quote][quote=onenickelmiracl]You could have made more than your loss, just by working at McDonald's[/quote]The question should be...  What are the odds you would have made more money investing that $1,000,000 in a business, real estate or the stock market?  Why would anyone want to take big money and risk it in a casino for less than a percent?   People without money think that's a good idea.  Once it becomes a reality, it seems like a ridiculous option.  

[Onenickelmiracl]

[quote=BillRyan]What are the odds you end up with nothing after playing a million hands at a dollar a pop.You could have made more than your loss, just by working at McDonald'sThe question should be...  What are the odds you would have made more money investing that $1,000,000 in a business, real estate or the stock market?  Why would anyone want to take big money and risk it in a casino for less than a percent?   People without money think that's a good idea.  Once it becomes a reality, it seems like a ridiculous option.  






[/QUOTE] They probably wouldn't and a casino wouldn't want the business. Our scenario isn't even a positive expectation, at least that I'm aware of according to the discussion. I don't quite understand your opinion, almost seems like you're intentionally misunderstanding just to make a snarky comment. This is just a theoretical discussion, of what actually might be a paradox. You wouldn't take all the money you ever lost, which is already gone, and place it instead, on one hand, because it's stupid, yet you've already have lost the money. There might be two paradoxes, the other being the casino also doesn't want the bet.

[DAAnMAAn]

Seems to me odd that one would think that if they just bet big for one hand, they are better off that playing X amount of hands accounting for the fact each spin is independent and has the same odds. Short term or long term...will eventually yield the same results long term lol
Anyway, it's the ultimate variant play and one either wins big or losses big. Since video poker is a variant game and one missed many hands to get to the good stuff, I would not recommend this.
Having said all that, I'm not purely math guy and have advocated a more "go for it" (not denomination wise, play wise) approach in certain situations against the math like a high progressive, or a weekend vp trip and it's the last day and your way down and won't go again for X amount of months,
Bottom line, if anyone decided on one hand all in video poker, please video it and post it somewhere because I for one would love to see it.
Cheers!

[billryan]

If someone handed you a million dollars and told you you get to keep whatever is left after it is played through once, would you
1) risk it all on one hand, knowing the chances of ending up with nothing are fifty percent or more
2) risk it all on one play of a 100 play machine, knowing you will get something but most likely lose more than half of it
3) run the money thru the machines as quickly as possible and be happy with your estimated 99% return?

[Eduardo]

4) run the money thru the taco cart and my stomach and let them keep 100% of what comes out the other end

I might not survive the day, but what a way to go...