does the math matter?

[billryan]

Win if you can. Lose if you must, but always, always cheat.

[rascal]

Ted is one of those remarkable gents who beats the odds through sweat, tears, and incredibly toned muscles. Those of us who admire his absolutely disciplined refusal to ever let Lady Luck betray him simply wish we could be more like him. It is not easy to be as lucky as Ted is, and we should be complimentary of his efforts, not critical.

[BobDancer]

In my classes, I suggest that if you look at the results of the next two hours, luck is worth 80% and skill (referred to as math in this thread) is worth 20%

If you look at the next 1000 hours of play, the numbers are reversed.

I pulled those numbers out of thin air --- but I believe they illustrate the point that how much luck you have is a matter of perspective.

I believe that the strongest players believe that math is dominant over luck. Players who lose a lot generally believe that luck is the dominant factor and they are just plain unlucky.

Insofar as playing Dream Card is concerned, that can be a decent play --- with the right pay schedule, slot club, and promotion. I personally find the sound effects annoying and don't play the game, but that doesn't mean that it's a terrible game.

Similarly, Ultimate X, Quick Quads, and several other "carnival games" can be the best returning games in a casino. Under the right conditions, any of these may be a good play.

[Vman96]

In my classes, I suggest that if you look at the results of the next two hours, luck is worth 80% and skill (referred to as math in this thread) is worth 20%

If you look at the next 1000 hours of play, the numbers are reversed.

I pulled those numbers out of thin air --- but I believe they illustrate the point that how much luck you have is a matter of perspective.

I believe that the strongest players believe that math is dominant over luck. Players who lose a lot generally believe that luck is the dominant factor and they are just plain unlucky.

Insofar as playing Dream Card is concerned, that can be a decent play --- with the right pay schedule, slot club, and promotion. I personally find the sound effects annoying and don't play the game, but that doesn't mean that it's a terrible game.

Similarly, Ultimate X, Quick Quads, and several other "carnival games" can be the best returning games in a casino. Under the right conditions, any of these may be a good play.

I would think that Dream Card is mostly not on your list because "full pay" schedules are difficult to find.

Same goes for tedlark. All that Dream Card he played was in the 97% range given random, long-term luck. I also don't ever really recall him posting playing a machine above 98% on the forum. So if he's ahead overall after the last seven years, that's a huge miracle, imo, given the pics he has posted.

And the one night I met him, I watched him lose hundreds of dollars on a 10-line quarter 96.2% bonus deuces game at Hollywood St. Louis. I like ya ted, but facts are facts.

[billryan]

Suppose instead of losing hundreds of dollars, he'd caught a couple of quad deuces and been a few hundred up?
Would he be a better player? Would that validate him?
On another forum, a blackjack player I follow is in the negative for the last three years. Math says he should be up about $75000 over that, at a minimum. In the two years before that, he made about $20,000 more than math suggested.
I've met pros that say they had multi year losing streaks, although that's not a term they use.

[billryan]

I'd like to ask Ted to clarify something I think may be causing confusion.
Suppose seven years ago, Ted had a monster year , finished the year up $65,000 dollars. Each of the next six years, Ted loses around $10,000.
Ted's up for the last seven years, no?
I take Ted's numbers as meaning his bankroll today is bigger than it was seven years ago, without adding outside money.
Others seem to think it means he is saying he has had multiple winning years in a row.
I have no dog in the fight and understand if Ted chooses not to answer, for whatever reason, but it might settle a thing or two

[FloridaPhil]

In my classes, I suggest that if you look at the results of the next two hours, luck is worth 80% and skill (referred to as math in this thread) is worth 20%. If you look at the next 1000 hours of play, the numbers are reversed.

I don't normally post on this forum, but I read what is said with interest. This explanation is the clearest definition of the effect luck has on the game of video poker that I have ever read. Luck exists. The more hands you play, the more it's influence diminishes. No one could have stated this any better.

The next question should be "Does the influence of luck ever go away completely?"

[Tedlark]

In my classes, I suggest that if you look at the results of the next two hours, luck is worth 80% and skill (referred to as math in this thread) is worth 20%

If you look at the next 1000 hours of play, the numbers are reversed.

I pulled those numbers out of thin air --- but I believe they illustrate the point that how much luck you have is a matter of perspective.

I believe that the strongest players believe that math is dominant over luck. Players who lose a lot generally believe that luck is the dominant factor and they are just plain unlucky.

Insofar as playing Dream Card is concerned, that can be a decent play --- with the right pay schedule, slot club, and promotion. I personally find the sound effects annoying and don't play the game, but that doesn't mean that it's a terrible game.

Similarly, Ultimate X, Quick Quads, and several other "carnival games" can be the best returning games in a casino. Under the right conditions, any of these may be a good play.

I would think that Dream Card is mostly not on your list because "full pay" schedules are difficult to find.

Same goes for tedlark. All that Dream Card he played was in the 97% range given random, long-term luck. I also don't ever really recall him posting playing a machine above 98% on the forum. So if he's ahead overall after the last seven years, that's a huge miracle, imo, given the pics he has posted.

And the one night I met him, I watched him lose hundreds of dollars on a 10-line quarter 96.2% bonus deuces game at Hollywood St. Louis. I like ya ted, but facts are facts.

Vman the one time that I did meet you we spent about 10 minutes talking while you were playing single line video poker. I then went over to a bank of 3/5/10 play machines and began play on 10 play TDB. I got down about $400.00 and I then went to the bank around the corner. I was down about $250.00 when I hit AWAK for 1k. I played until 2:00 am and went to bed down $300.00, driving back to Chicago later that morning after having breakfast in the buffet.

Compare video poker to baseball. Say, for instance, the Cardinals are beating the Cubs 2-1 in the top of the fourth inning. Is the game over? Not hardly. Because over the course of the next five innings the Cubs EXPLODE for 11 runs and come back to beat the Cardinals 13-1.

Yes, I am up overall through the previous seven years. Facts are facts.

[Tedlark]

I'd like to ask Ted to clarify something I think may be causing confusion.
Suppose seven years ago, Ted had a monster year , finished the year up $65,000 dollars. Each of the next six years, Ted loses around $10,000.
Ted's up for the last seven years, no?
I take Ted's numbers as meaning his bankroll today is bigger than it was seven years ago, without adding outside money.
Others seem to think it means he is saying he has had multiple winning years in a row.
I have no dog in the fight and understand if Ted chooses not to answer, for whatever reason, but it might settle a thing or two

I have not experienced a losing year in the past seven years. I have had losing sessions in those years but overall I am up for that period.

[Tedlark]

Ted is one of those remarkable gents who beats the odds through sweat, tears, and incredibly toned muscles. Those of us who admire his absolutely disciplined refusal to ever let Lady Luck betray him simply wish we could be more like him. It is not easy to be as lucky as Ted is, and we should be complimentary of his efforts, not critical.

I rarely do this but let me pull back the curtain just a bit. I was born 9 weeks prematurely and wasn't expected to make it through the night; in 1977 I was thrown from a horse while riding at a full gallop in Arizona; in 1984 I was involved in a horrific motorcycle crash caused by an 85 year old man who drifted into my lane and drove right into me (I was doing 45 miles an hour and he was too); I have been in several car accidents (not my fault), one where I was broadsided; been shot at once; I have had two different bouts with Pulmonary Embolisms (the first one I had a p.e. in my right lung and pneumonia in my left lung at the same time and was within hours of cashing in my chips); I have had two battles with Deep Vein Thrombosis (one is now chronic), a couple years ago I was diagnosed with interior carotid artery dissection after coming up wrong while deadlifting 500 pounds in the gym. Add to this several other little mishaps over my lifetime.

I would say that I'm pretty lucky, yes.

Edited to add: My God and maker is keeping me around for some reason that has yet to be revealed to me. I do not know if it will be revealed to me in this lifetime or not until one of my future lifetimes.