Changing Machines?

[Frank Kneeland]

I will tell you what a lot of recreational players would think is crazy- Needing a bankroll of 25K in order to sustain playing at a $0.25 level machine. This post really got my attention for several reasons.First, what does "bankroll" in this context mean? To me, bankroll is the money I have set aside for gambling, separate from what I need to pay living expenses for about two years. assuming about $1,000 a month for cost of living. Therefore, one would need about 35k in total savings to even consider gambling . 25k might be a bit low, of course this calculation is hard to pin down since the speaker didn't give their definition and criteria for "bankroll". It means different things to different people.Therefore the only sure conclusion we can derive, is that we can derive no sure conclusion as to whether 25k is high or low.
The jackpot would payout 1k so if you already have 25k what are you playing for? Now here's the really interesting part of this post, the comparison between JP amount and bankroll requirement.There is no direct correlation between the top award on a game of chance and its bankroll requirement. Bankroll requirement calculations are based on the return of the game, only work for for positive expectation situations, and are based on either infinite play or long term play. The size of the largest Jackpot one can hit on a given machine tells you almost nothing about how much you need to play that machine type to withstand standard deviations. How about blackjack where there is no "top award JP"? Would you question  someone needing 25k to play a game where the most they can win is $200?I've played KENO machines (102% return) with a top award of less than $500 that required at least $10,000 in your pocket to be sure you had enough for the day.So in closing: 1. "top award" has very little/nothing to do with bankroll requirement.2. "bankroll" is too variable a word to be used precisely, without providing an explanation of what it means to you.~FK

[Frank Kneeland]

< ="text/">p { margin-bottom: 0.08in; }a:link { }

If they are getting
tanked on a machine and decide to move, it is only an attempt to make
a change to a negative pattern that has been occurring during that
session(i.e=TIMING). Whats so wrong with changing machines?
Well first we need to define exactly what we/I mean
by changing machines.Changing Machines = moving from one
identical machine (for instance FPDW) to another identical machine,
because the first one hasn't returned well. Same game type in the
same casino during a single outing.Now we can answer your
question, "So what's wrong with changing machines?"In
eastern Africa an offshoot of the Bantu
/ Swahili
tribe that worship the Siafu, an army
ant from the genus Dorylus, gather together all the
men in their village to make a week long trek with the tribal elder
to retrieve the sacred rain-stones from their mountain temple.
Towards the end of the yearly dry period, they believe it is
necessary to pray using the sacred stones to bring the yearly
monsoon. It's a nice ceremony and I'm sure a very interesting hike up
and down the mountain. Of course I think "we the enlightened"
can all agree that praying to some sacred river stones and allowing
some sacred ants to bite us, isn't really what brings the yearly
rainy season for the Siafu people.All that time they spent
getting painted up and trekking around dangerous mountains where
there are frequent fatalities (god's sacrifice) could be spent
gathering food during the lean times and helping their women prepare
for the coming rains...which would have come regardless what they did
or didn't do, or what god they prayed to--and in this case, how they
prayed to him. The Siafu want to change the pattern of drought, one
certainly can't blame them for that. Where one can find fault with
their logic is in their choice of superstition over substance.Time
is precious and finite. Wasting time on pointless things that can't
really influence the future is therefore a type of crime against
nature--Especially if it diverts your attention/time away from things
that could make a difference.I was going to end this by
correlating that true account of the Siafu to video poker, but I
think I'd rather you did that yourself.~FK

[shadowman]

Frank, I like your analogy. Now, where can I find some of those sacred rain stones. Probably works better than rubbing the screen or a rabbit's foot. Do they mention anything about virgins ...?

[ravenbynight111]

 I do think sitting at a machine that is not paying is a major mistake. I have heard all the stories about being random. Well I belive that a machine is moderate,hot or cold.a couple of weeks agon i was playing ddb  machine and hit nothing for a half hour. A women at ddb machine hit 4of kind 4 times in 15 minutes. She got up and left i jumped on that machine and in no time i was dealt 4 aces for 2000 credit hit a 1000 cash. I got up to get a drink and let my wife play she hit four dueces for a 800 credit hit,400 dollars. I was much better off going to that machine. Hot or not the machine was a winner that day. I have done this many times over the years and always make me a profit. Then the flip side ,i haved play just about perfect play and lost my ass. Give me hot every time.

[New2vp]

Frank, I agree with you that changing machines is not logical in a regulated area.*  That being said, I don't think I can fully agree with the level of your verbal crusade against changing machines.  Many who believe in randomness and independent events have given up trying to warn against this myth because the overall change in EV is zero.  No harm, no foul.I accept your point that it is worse than being of no benefit since such practices are wasted motion, wasted thought, wasted emotional involvement.    Based on the number of posts like the previous one (and others both here and at vpfree), your words are having little impact on many; the believers were already on your side and the doubters mostly remain unmoved.  That might relegate your advice nearly to the same ash heap of wasted motion, wasted thought, wasted emotional involvement.  If so, there is a bit of irony in advising against these admittedly inefficient actions.Of course, it costs you little to write the words and a lot of people like to say things like, "If I can just change one person's mind, it would be worth it."  But here you will not be saving that one person (or more) any EV.  And this does not consider the opportunity cost of what other wisdom you might be imparting that would have a positive effect on the EV of the play of other players.   (An example might be to try to prevent people playing hunches and making less than optimal holds in an effort to get big hits because they did it in the past and were successful once or twice.  Good luck on that one, too!)I acknowledge that I may have exceeded my own opportunity costs in making this post but I thought it might be beneficial to suggest that there is some irony here, perhaps double irony, if you also consider the futility of this post in changing opinion.  As I'm certain that you're zealous in your beliefs, I can guess that you will continue in your quest to convert others.  I share the basic belief with the exception that I see limited benefit in evangelism.  (Of course, I'm using that last word loosely to symbolize the mission of advancing the "True Way to Play Video Poker" and not any religion, organized or otherwise!)I hadn't seen this line of thought in other posts and thought it might provide a contrast. *(It really cannot make much difference in a non-regulated area either.  If the machines were gaffed in some way, it's hard to imagine that someone would fix the machines so that one could tell by observation which ones were likely to hit.)

[Sonny123]

I agree, I have sat down next to a player who dropped $2k in one machine and watched another player on the same bank, sit down and hit.  Moving around is better.

[Sonny123]

OMG, I really understand what you are saying, our casino behavior is determined by our play history.  My history is different from others.   Here's the irony, I always win a little.  I am a short-time player, always win in the 1st 30 minutes.  If I play longer, I will lose.  That's my player's Karma.  This is true:  1st spin winnings - $4,800, 3rd hand of cards - $23k, 1st time throw winning a stuff animal - 3 prizes.   

[onemoretry]

    Here's the irony, I always win a little.  I am a short-time player, always win in the 1st 30 minutes.  If I play longer, I will lose.   

In video poker (actually, in gambling in general), , there is no such thing  as "always".

[Frank Kneeland]

 I do think sitting at a machine that is not paying is a major mistake. I have heard all the stories about being random. Well I believe that a machine is moderate,hot or cold.a couple of weeks ago i was playing ddb  machine and hit nothing for a half hour. A women at ddb machine hit 4of kind 4 times in 15 minutes. She got up and left i jumped on that machine and in no time i was dealt 4 aces for 2000 credit hit a 1000 cash. I got up to get a drink and let my wife play she hit four deuces for a 800 credit hit, 400 dollars. I was much better off going to that machine. Hot or not the machine was a winner that day. I have done this many times over the years and always make me a profit. Then the flip side, i have play just about perfect play and lost my ass. Give me hot every time.You appear to have succumb to something called "results bias". No one would disagree that having done well on a machine is a good thing. But "having done well" is in the past. Expecting to do well, is in the future.If show me a way to know a machine is "hot" in advance of playing it, I'll conceded the point.At the moment you make your machine selection, you have only the pay-table and your knowledge of the strategy to influence your decision. You cannot include how you are going to do on that machine in your decision making process, because you haven't played it yet.Please, if we are going to have an intelligent discussion about a decision to change machines, keep in mind that this decision takes place without precognition as a prerequisite.I would have thought that went without saying, but apparently I was wrong.I'm pulling out of this thread because I have some fun stuff planned this weekend. Please email me if you'd like to continue the discussion privately. Oh and BTW, "results bias" is considered the most common logical fallacy. No biggy, you're not alone.~FK

[Frank Kneeland]

Really liked your whole post New2vp. And you're right about my own time wastage. As I'm certain that you're zealous in your beliefs, I can guess that you will continue in your quest to convert others. 
I didn't think I was trying to convert anyone. I thought I was just sharing knowledge. I find it strange that there are so many people that think this stuff is opinion and reject it. Of course I guess I wouldn't have any better results convincing the Mofu-Wazan that their sacred rain stones don't really bring the rains.I'm balling out of this thread, have fun all, and I hope I at least sparked some interesting discussion.~FKCORRECTIONS: the tribe that worships the Siafu is called the Mofu-Wazan and lives
in Cameroon, near the border with Nigeria.

The people of Nigeria sometimes call them the Siafu People, but that's not what
they call themselves.

If you wish more info watch, "NOVA-The Masters of the Killer Ants".

Here's a clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29kErsFdC5w