Video Poker Distributions are Not Normal

[Frank Kneeland]

Now the question is how many people understand the ramifications of this information?And in the event they do understand the ramifications, will that lead them to correct conclusions and action?There's been a lot of talk on this and other forums by people that think expected returns are nonsense and meaningless. My guess as to why they think they are meaningless, is because they don't understand the meaning.What we have is a major disconnect in how the information is interpreted and acted upon.So to all I would ask: Reading the information in this thread how do you think that knowledge should effect your play?If your answer is "not at all", something is wrong.

[faygo]

Very interesting!    

[backsider]

Due to the importance of this thread what I'd now recommend is we hear from the people out there that might not understand all the information. Ask questions and we'll answer them.What would be great is if everyone reading this walked away with at least the ability to calculate standard deviations. 

 And knowing all or even some of these things means what? It sure looks like if I knew the "danger" I was getting myself into recently at the Cannery, NO WAY would I have sat down at that fiveplay machine and ended up getting a check for 20 grand! Phew, lucky me! Oh no, now theres no such thing as luck.  I dont even know why people would be interested in all these calculations and distribution probabilities or whatever you call them. What good does it do anyone once they play? I do admit that to a numbers cruncher type this info might be mildly interesting, but me walking (I wish) away with having these things in my head wont do squat for me at the machines. So theres my question, what good is this info, and would I have been better off not playing that machine? I mean, how much "luckier" could I get?

[Frank Kneeland]

[QUOTE=Frank Kneeland]
Due to the importance of this thread what I'd now recommend is we hear from the people out there that might not understand all the information. Ask questions and we'll answer them.What would be great is if everyone reading this walked away with at least the ability to calculate standard deviations. 

 And knowing all or even some of these things means what? It sure looks like if I knew the "danger" I was getting myself into recently at the Cannery, NO WAY would I have sat down at that fiveplay machine and ended up getting a check for 20 grand! Phew, lucky me! Oh no, now theres no such thing as luck.  I dont even know why people would be interested in all these calculations and distribution probabilities or whatever you call them. What good does it do anyone once they play? I do admit that to a numbers cruncher type this info might be mildly interesting, but me walking (I wish) away with having these things in my head wont do squat for me at the machines. So theres my question, what good is this info, and would I have been better off not playing that machine? I mean, how much "luckier" could I get?[/QUOTE]So long as you continue to mix the known past with unknown future you will never understand what anyone is trying to tell you. Try these analogies.#1Someone offers you this deal: You can put a revolver with 5 out 6 chambers loaded to your head and pull the trigger. If you survive you get a million dollars.Is that a good idea? Should you take the bet?#2You meet a guy that took the bet and survived and now has a million dollars and someone asks you, "Do you think that taking that bet was good judgment on his part?"Obviously, the bet is in the past and he survived. It came out all right. Oh, five other guys died, but let's not worry about them they're dead and they aren't talking. Do you think the lone survivor made a good choice back BEFORE he knew how it would turn out?Certainly, if we include knowledge of the future(now the past) in his decision one could think he made the right choice. But if we remove the knowledge of his assured survival then taking a bet with a 83.33% chance of fatality is clearly NOT A GOOD IDEA.So I ask you, can you separate the known past from the unknown future and stop judging your decisions by how they turned out?

[Frank Kneeland]

And knowing all or even some of these
things means what? It sure looks like if I knew the "danger"
I was getting myself into recently at the Cannery, NO WAY would
I have sat down at that five-play machine and ended up getting a
check for 20 grand! Phew, lucky me! Oh no, now theres no such
thing as luck.No there isn't any such thing as luck
as you imagine it. What happened to you is one of the many possible
outcomes that is predicted by math and nothing exciting or unusual.
Anything that can happen will happen in things involving a random
element. It's perfectly normal.Might you have not chosen to
play those machines and consequently not gotten your dealt Royal if
you followed the math? Perhaps. But if we are going to play "what
if", might you not have played a better machine and done even
better if you had followed the math? Also perhaps. Since you didn't,
we'll never know, and you can't know either. Once again you are
comparing how you actually did, to how you may have done if you'd
done something different. No one can make that comparison. You are
saying:How I did is > than something else I didn't
do.That's stone cold irrefutably impossible. You cannot
compare the known to the unknown.
I don't even know why people would be
interested in all these calculations and distribution probabilities
or whatever you call them. What good does it do anyone once they
play?That you would even ask this question in
this way tells me you really don't get it at all. I put the most
troublesome part in bold.This information isn't
targeted at "once they play" in any way. It's supposed to
be used in advance of playing to pick what to play, how to play it,
to play within one's bankroll, and maximize one's chances for doing
well.Once you have sat down and started playing, it's far too
late for the information to be useful, and you have completely missed
the point.
So theres my question, what good
is this info?
and would I have been better off
not playing that machine?
I mean, how much "luckier"
could I get?

I can only answer part one of your
question, but why I can't answer part 2 and 3 is perhaps more
interesting.

This info is incredibly useful for
determining what games in a casino would be the best to play and
what one should expect as the most likely outcome of their play. It
is further useful for making good bankroll requirement decisions. If
you know that losing a little more than expected is common and that
big wins are rarer, then you won't sit down expecting “luck” to
save you every time you play a game with a high variance
under-bankrolled.
How can you even ask me that?
We only have one data point. How you did that day on that machine.
To answer your question I'd need to know ALL your results from all
the times you have ever played similar machines, and I'd have to
know how you would have done on different machines in an alternate
time-line where you choose a different path. Perhaps J.J Abrams
could answer your question if the technology in some of his TV shows
is real. Baring this, it's not only an impossible question it's
pointless. How you did is how you did, and we'll never know now
if it was the best choice, because how you did is also all you did.
How much “luckier” could you
have been? Well gosh BS, I guess we'll never know. That question
can't be answered either, but you're the only one asking it.


You are talking about the past, we are
talking about the future. If you can understand that, then perhaps
someday there will be mutual understanding.~FK

[BillyJoe]

Very interesting!
 
 
 

"Sneaky, too" 

[backsider]

Frank you know I respect you, but youre sooo disconected with how regular players play that you now have to talk in riddles that make less and less sense. It almost looks like the competition with New2vp that he reeled you into has driven you straight into fantasyland.  But "lucky" you, Im here for the rescue! Your dissing of the concept of luck: distribution this and probability that, what is it that compels you to stay so far away from reality on this that you cant get within a million miles of touch with it? Youve minimalized every single event we face in life down to "oh well, it eventually had to happen because thats the way of the world, and luck (good or bad) had nothing to do with it"! Good Golly Miss Molly!! It makes me wonder if you have any enjoyment with ANYTHING in your life!, or is it all some kind of analysis that you run through your computer that Mr. Spock used to own? With the past vs. the future point, you couldnt be more confused and wrong at the same time. There IS no future when were playing, only the present. Yes you can sit there and make all kinds of predictions based on math and expectation when youre on the forums, but when you finally sit down (aka, reality) and play then you are in the hands of nothing but luck. I think you like to dissect these things down to the gnats ass just because you can do it and the world will be impressed by it. That may be the case with New2vp who seems threatened by your ability to do that, but with the real crowd you just make no sense at all, and I say that in as good a way as possible. People like me arent as dumb as Ive joked about and as thick as you hint we are. In other words, you are not the end all and I respectfully believe you should try and put yourself into our world when making these outwordly posts. Thank you, thank you very much.

[Frank Kneeland]

Frank you know I respect you, but youre sooo disconected with how regular players play that you now have to talk in riddles that make less and less sense. It almost looks like the competition with New2vp that he reeled you into has driven you straight into fantasyland.  But "lucky" you, Im here for the rescue! Your dissing of the concept of luck: distribution this and probability that, what is it that compels you to stay so far away from reality on this that you cant get within a million miles of touch with it? You've minimalized every single event we face in life down to "oh well, it eventually had to happen because thats the way of the world, and luck (good or bad) had nothing to do with it"! Good Golly Miss Molly!! It makes me wonder if you have any enjoyment with ANYTHING in your life!, or is it all some kind of analysis that you run through your computer that Mr. Spock used to own? With the past vs. the future point, you couldnt be more confused and wrong at the same time. There IS no future when were playing, only the present. Yes you can sit there and make all kinds of predictions based on math and expectation when youre on the forums, but when you finally sit down (aka, reality) and play then you are in the hands of nothing but luck. I think you like to dissect these things down to the gnats ass just because you can do it and the world will be impressed by it. That may be the case with New2vp who seems threatened by your ability to do that, but with the real crowd you just make no sense at all, and I say that in as good a way as possible. People like me arent as dumb as Ive joked about and as thick as you hint we are. In other words, you are not the end all and I respectfully believe you should try and put yourself into our world when making these outwordly posts. Thank you, thank you very much.I'm sorry you think that's what I'm saying. It isn't, but trying to say what I'm saying would require saying it again, and that's obviously not working.I've been working in the field of professional video poker for over two decades and have put everything I say into actual use in the real world. I'm not talking theory, or conjecture, or  fantasy...and I'm still trying to figure out why you think I am. I've played so much more video poker in my life than you have I'm sure there's no comparison...and that's not even counting all the players I've managed. I'm just talking me personally. I passed the 25,000,000 hand mark about eight years ago and stopped counting.It might help if you answered the direct questions I asked you, which you always seem to ignore and instead post around them without ever even acknowledging them. Why don't we start there, just answer the outstanding direct questions. I'll re-repost them in another post after this one.

[BillyJoe]

How Video Poker for Winners displays the same information:



My session at South Point today floated between about even and 400-coin down until a late but very welcome 22622.  2500 hands.  Pencil dot right.

Yeah, Quad. I also have VPW and I LOVE this feature. I always run these for my wife before we take a gaming trip, and show her how often she will go broke on the games that she plays.
Her casino win/loss statements substantiate the findings.

[Frank Kneeland]

@Backsider Direct Questions in BOLD and numbered.I'm trying to figure out how you think, and to this end I need to know more about your decision making process and whether or not you can judge decisions without including results. Please try to answer these questions.Scenario A Someone offers you this deal: You can put a
revolver with 5 out 6 chambers loaded to your head and pull the trigger.
If you survive you get a million dollars.#1 Is that a good idea? #2 Should you take the bet?Scenario B You meet a guy that took the bet and survived and now has a million dollars and someone asks you, #3 "Do you think that taking that bet was good judgment on his part?"Obviously,
the bet is in the past and he survived. It came out all right. Oh, five
other guys died, but let's not worry about them they're dead and they
aren't talking. Do you think the lone survivor made a good choice back
BEFORE he knew how it would turn out?Certainly, if we include knowledge of the future(now the past)
in his decision one could think he made the right choice. But if we
remove the knowledge of his assured survival then taking a bet with a
83.33% chance of fatality is clearly NOT A GOOD IDEA.#4 So I ask you, can you separate the known past from the unknown future and stop judging your decisions by how they turned out?#5 Would you agree that in advance of making a decision and without knowledge of the future all we have to go on is the most likely outcome?#6 Considering the difference in our experience level playing real machines in real casinos, why do you think your personal hand sample is a "better" representation of reality than mine?#7 Do you understand that even though anything can happen once you sit down there is still a most likely outcome?P.S. I don't want to put you on the spot, so if you don't want to answer these question just say so and I'll drop the entire conversation.  If you want to continue talking then please answer them as a first step. But it's on you: we can drop it or continue, your choice.