New player wondering how I'm doing

[Jeff1000]

Wow Quad Deuces, a lot of information to absorb, and a real eye opener as to how low on the learning curve I'm at.

I'm totally focused on just one game right now, JoB strategy and applying that to BP (with minor adjustments), and of course playing JoB as well.

As I mentioned I have a lot of studying and practicing to do before even considering DW, but I'll work on it.

It seems to me that every player is different so I'm not going to adopt the expectation that "most days I will lose". It's probably the truth but I have to find that out for myself, and so far it hasn't been the case. It would be self-defeating for me to have that expectation.

It seems to me that the greatest advantage I have, besides being able to control when play ends, is seeing things through unindoctrinated eyes instead of being programmed by someone else's philosophy and strategy, but I could be completely wrong about that and only time will tell. As in ancient times there were individuals that refused to accept that the sun orbited the earth, and as a result they were able to move knowledge forward, yet I'm not trying to reinvent the wheel either. Anyway, I hope I'm making some sense.

Thanks so much for your generous help!

[Quad Deuces]

It seems to me that every player is different so I'm not going to adopt the expectation that "most days I will lose". It's probably the truth but I have to find that out for myself, and so far it hasn't been the case. It would be self-defeating for me to have that expectation.

It seems to me that the greatest advantage I have, besides being able to control when play ends, is seeing things through unindoctrinated eyes instead of being programmed by someone else's philosophy and strategy, but I could be completely wrong about that and only time will tell.. Hmm.  Maybe someday you'll be able to explain why you would play a 99.17% game when a 99.54% game exists in the same casino at the same denomination.It's not indoctrination or feelings, it's probability and pay schedules.Likely outcomes playing 2400 hands of 8/5 Bonus at 25c - approximately 4 hours of play:Starting stake: $250Quit if you reach $500 (Original stake + $250)Quit at $500 8.49%Still playing: 75.85%Quit after losing $250: 15.66%Chance of being ahead: 29.75%Chance at being behind: 69.99%Nothing you can do will change that.  Note that it doesn't matter if this is one sitdown ot 2400 hands or 6 sit-downs of 400 hands each.For comparison, here are the same parameters for full-pay deuces wild, going from a base return of 99.17% (8/5 Bonus) to 100.76%:Quit at $500 22.96%Still playing: 58.65%Quit after losing $250: 18.39%Chance of being ahead: 41.39%Chance at being behind: 58.44%Even though the game pays more than 100% you are still more likely to be down than up after 2400 hands.Nothing you can do will change that.  Note that it doesn't matter if
this is one sitdown of 2400 hands or 6 sit-downs of 400
hands each.  "quitting while you're ahead" does nothing over the long term unless you are actually quitting VP forever.

[pokerforme]

Wow Quad Deuces you are making me waver in my approach. I really like DDB, love the large hits. So far I have done well to very well in my limited exposure. Yes I understand the math will get me eventually. I started playing along time ago with JOB but took a extended brake and really just enjoy the larger hits that DDB brings. I have known for some time if I was to play more than the 3-5 times a year for recreation I would have to play deuces.....looking like I will have to really sit down and rethink things. I have found some very decent to good/great pay tables in Reno for DDB but some casinos only have a few of these machines or force you to play 3 or 5 play. I usually play 25c and if forced to play 5 play usually don't want to bring that kind of starting bankroll. With the difference in DDB and deuces I could probably play 3-5 lines with a lot of training first. Being a pure recreational player I still always look at play tables and whatever the casino offers...WHY NOT!!!! Thanks for constantly providing all of us with the straight numbers, it really helps.

[pokerforme]

A small question, how many hands would it take before those same numbers start leaning towards breaking even? 2400 is a small sample---one I understand with the once in awhile trip, just wondering for the sake of pure curiosity.

[Jeff1000]

QD, you must mean playing BP instead of JoB? As absurd as this may sound it's just because I found BP in the casino first and I'm comfortable where the game is physically located.

What I can't seem to grasp is that if the game is completely random, and what happened in the present or the past has no bearing on what will happen in the future, then how can these long term calculations be relevant at all?

I suspect that so few players stop playing when they're ahead that it's impact on a player's return isn't even considered.

I was reading on another thread here about a player who quickly went up 300 bucks but continued playing. He lost 200 but managed to recapture that 200 back plus some, but as I was reading his post I was thinking "why didn't you quit when you were up 300"? Maybe like most players he wasn't able to quit, whether it was greed or addiction only he probably knows, but I wouldn't underestimate the ability to stop playing since it seems that practically no players possess that ability. How many percentage points can be added to a player's payback if he has this most rare ability in an atmosphere, a casino, that is completely averse to such a strategy as that?

I know, numbers are numbers, but I'm not going to be a slave to them, but that doesn't mean that I'm not going to play a strategically sound game either. When the numbers are ironclad use them; when they omit too many variables, take them with a grain of salt. JMHO. FWIW.

I suspect that in an ideal world statistics and mathematics would always prevail, but in the real world there's a lot of variables that never get factored in.

[Quad Deuces]

Jeff: Yup.  You might get lucky.  Best of luck to you.pokerforme: There's a whole other thread somewhere about how many hands it takes to see anything close to expected.  It's a lot.  Free play and promotions smooth the ride considerably.

[Jeff1000]

Hey QD, I wasn't talking about luck at all, but you can throw that into the mix too. Also bad luck.

[Minn. Fatz]

...as I was reading his post I was thinking "why didn't you quit when you were up 300"?

Good question. Here's what I do.

For each VP session, I divide my play into "tranches." One tranche is equal to the value of 10 trials; that is, 50 credits on a one-line machine, 150 on a three-line, 180 for 3-line Super Times Pay, or whatever.

So on a one-line machine, if I'm down 50 credits or up exactly 50 or a multiple of 50, I start the next tranche. If i'm up 50 and some odd credits, I play until I'm up some multiple of 50 credits, then start the next tranche.

However much I buy in at the start of the session determines how many tranches I play. When I finish the last tranche in a session, I get up and do something else; get a drink or something to eat or just take a walk outside. I might not be done playing that day, but I'm done with that session. And I plan to play only so many sessions a day; when I'm done with those I'm done playing.

So if I sit down and put 200 credits into the machine, I play four tranches. If I'm down to 150 I start the second tranche. If I hit a big hand and have, say, 285 credits on the machine, I play until I'm at 250 or 300, then start the third tranche.

It's probably not necessary for a recreational player like myself to go through all that, but it's just good gambling discipline and money management. I think it was Bob Dancer who said that if you always play until your bankroll is gone you'll never go home a winner.

[marie meijer]

Welcome to forum, Jeff! Eventually, you'll pick up a lot of useful stuff through trial and error. However, I wish someone had told me or I had read it here sooner: Three items come to  mind and others can contribute better and more useful info. When fortunate to have a handful of white TITOs (ticket in ticket out), one can have them add up on the machine you are playing and save time and tempers when using redemption machine.If $$ show up on your machine, lower right, swipe a finger over that amount and presto! the number of coins show up instead of that dollar amount. This makes it harder for someone walking by to realize how much you have won. It's a security thing. Perhaps my biggest complaint at this moment: My players card registers when I begin playing. After a loooong session when I am about to retrieve my card and move on I notice:  "REINSERT YOUR PLAYERS CARD" Grrrr. all that play and no comp credit! Memo to self, check that players card often! HOW can casinos do this to me, I ask! It really hurts when I wanted/needed tier or food points or mail offers.

[Jeff1000]

Hey Minn. Fatz, my eyes glazed over when you started mentioning "tranches", but that's my problem I'm sure.

I do find it curious though that you seem to gauge your situation in the casino by your tranches instead of what's going on with the machine(s) and the bottom line at any given moment. I could never play like that but that's not to say it isn't a good management strategy, just that I don't see how it could ever work.

However, it does seem to demonstrate good discipline on your part which was what I've been talking about too: discipline and self-control. Never was I talking about "luck".

Very interesting, and thanks for the feedback.