Double up or not

[Tedlark]

Bob can you expand on your thinking that playing the double up feature is a 50-50 bet?

I'm thinking that it can't be a 50-50 bet unless there is an equal number of draw cards higher than the dealers card as well as an equal number of draw cards lower than the dealers card?

So on face value it may appear as a 50-50 proposition but if there was a disproportionate number of draw cards lower than the dealers card for the player to chose from wouldn't it change from a 50-50 bet to something higher?

[alpax]

[QUOTE=BobDancer]
(Why any player would want to play any game where the house has the advantage is beyond me, but this site is full of such people.)Bob
do you go out to dinner and is your bill more than the pure cost of the food? why would anyone do that, when you could just buy the ingredients for less? is there not some value you have received? why would anyone buy tickets to a live event, when they could watch it on tv for free?why would anyone buy an $80k car, when they could buy transportation for $20k? i do not want to take a 7 hour flight to bet $1.25/hand, for one day of play, to gain a 2% advantage and pay $400 for the flight. i do not want to spend my entire life in a casino. playing VP is entertainment for me, not a something that consumes every minute of my life. i strive to get the most value i can from any visit to the casino, just as i do with going out to eat or buying a car. i have played 10 VP sessions this year, it would have cost $4k in travel costs to gain that theoretical advantage. that is substantially more than i lost in all my sessions combined. and, there is no guarantee that the theoretical advantage would have paid off. that is why i play a a game, at a casino,where i have no advantage.   [/QUOTE]

I am completely aware of the point you are trying to make, but the answer to some of the questions you've imposed are answered on the Video Poker for Winners page and from what I heard on the Million Dollar Poker novel.

http://www.videopokerforwinners.com/video/

If the video does not playback for you, he only paid for four meals throughout his 12+ years in Vegas and got a few cars including a Mercedes Benz.

Most people value their lives more than VP, that is perfectly fine with me. I cannot help with the free vehicles part, but I at least know how to get by in Vegas without ever having to pay for food; that is if you do not mind eating at buffet and restaurants at the casino everyday.

[alpax]

   Bob can you expand on your thinking that playing the double up feature is a 50-50 bet?

I'm thinking that it can't be a 50-50 bet unless there is an equal number of draw cards higher than the dealers card as well as an equal number of draw cards lower than the dealers card?

So on face value it may appear as a 50-50 proposition but if there was a disproportionate number of draw cards lower than the dealers card for the player to chose from wouldn't it change from a 50-50 bet to something higher?

In the end, if it is a class 3 machine doing the double up feature, I would see the process as nothing different than the odds of shuffling a deck and getting the top two cards, one for you and one for the house.

[alpax]

Personally looking forward to tomorrow's article on LasVegas Advisor

DDB pays out 1 to 1 33% of the time from Jacks or Better or the 2 pairs.

After 1 successful double up, 2 to 1 16% chance overall to achieve this on any given hand
After 2 successful double up, 4 to 1 8% chance overall to achieve this on any given hand
After 3 successful double up, 8 to 1 4% chance overall
to achieve this on any given hand

Compared to getting a high ranking hand

Odds of a straight that pays 4 to 1 is 1.3% chance overall of it happening

Odds of a full house that pays 9 to 1 (or 8 to 1) is 1.087% chance of happening.

This is all speculation, but it is interesting where this will lead up.

[notes1]

alpax, one does not have to go to vegas to get free meals. i have been playing VP for about 9 years, and when visiting a casino, never paid for a meal, never paid for a hotel room got dozens of free airplane trips. but, at the level i play, casinos are not going to give me free plane rides to vegas (although i stay/eat for free). to pay $400 for a single night or two of VP upfront, simply for the potential benefit of a couple of percent advantage, does not guarantee success.  i am simply refuting his broad generalization that no one should play VP without an advantage. he implies that those who do, are stupid. i guarantee that if i dug through his personal life and where he spends his money, i could find plenty of areas that some may call foolish. i happen to think spending $300 for a meal is a waste, spending $80k on a car is not worth it, but i am not about to knock someone else for doing it.   

[alpax]

I originally meant to say it is possible to eat every single meal of your life at the nearby casino since there are many of them at Vegas. Signing up for the casino club to a majority of them, some days you can eat without playing by using up a voucher, some days you just play very little and get a meal from it. It makes it easier if it is your occupation to boot.

I probably would not travel to my local casino to eat every day since it takes a few hours roundtrip.

Regardless, I do understand your point before all of this Vegas lifestyle example I brought up and I too am not judgmental with what people do with their hard earned money.

I do know many people that despise gambling in general, but they go out and spend way more on rest and relaxation places.

[olds442jetaway]

I usually don't agree with Bob D on many things ( math excluded ) because nobody can argue against facts, but after reading this thread I think I am seriously going to have to consider using the Double up feature at Mohegan Sun. If I stick to the 99% games and lose less per hour while waiting for a premium hand, so much the better. I think only about one in ten players use this feature up there. For now, I think I will just use it on hands when I get my money back like Jacks or better. I can also see the similarity in doing this to the Florida Phil method because Phil is risking his current hand winnings at a higher level on the next bet hoping for a tripple or home run. Granted it is not really the same, but if I can play even up with the house, why not try it for a few sessions. I think the biggest reason including myself players don't use the feature is we are so glad to have a winning hand, that we are afraid to risk those winnings and end up as if we did not have a winning hand to begin with. Edited to add this....Mohegan Sun still offers free play to me based on playing their no points 99% machines. Considering that and none of the other comps, I still think that in theory I could playing very very close to even up with the house if I play only 99.54% games and use the double up feature. Of course this is all in theory and infinity at least in my case plays a big role. My Royal hit record while hard in itself to believe has gotten even worse. I just posted about it I think yesterday. Without the Royal, I drop from a 99 plus player to a 97% player. I hope that will change before I get too old to play. Mohegan Sun does not offer the 99.54% games on other than single line games as far as I know. That said, if I do this, I will give up some of the enjoyment I'm having this year playing multi line games at a lower return percentage. Will have to think about it some more I guess.

[notes1]

alpax, understand you points and welcome you being 'non judgemental'. i stand by what i said, i am opposed to those who make broad generalizations.  but, for those who do like blanket statements, i would refer them to the interview with STEVE WYNN, arguably the father of the modern casino and one of the smartest and wealthiest folks in the gaming business. in an interview on CBS, and one can see it in cardplayer magazine 2014, he was asked about big, long term winners at a casino. he stated, that he knew of none. not a single player! does anyone believe it is in the interest of a casino owner to tell all those who dream of beating the casino, that he is unaware of anyone doing it.    now, there is a guy i would believe. and, what does it say about all those who talk about advantage play, about how much they won in some single session, without talking about all their losing sessions. as i have said before, i enjoy hearing/reading about the big wins, but how about following up with the long term results. as paul harvey was famous for saying, and now the rest of the story.

[alpax]

Dancer's LVA article is up with regards to the Double Up feature.

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2015/0609.cfm

It states two valid reasons, that I did not think of.

1. Casino factors in time played on a machine as part of the comp equation
2. Casino promotions for wins exceeding the W2G threshold of $1200.

Unfortunately #2 does not apply to me, instead a different tax relief promotion is done where every few minutes someone wins $100.

[alpax]

alpax, understand you points and welcome you being 'non judgemental'. i stand by what i said, i am opposed to those who make broad generalizations.  but, for those who do like blanket statements, i would refer them to the interview with STEVE WYNN, arguably the father of the modern casino and one of the smartest and wealthiest folks in the gaming business. in an interview on CBS, and one can see it in cardplayer magazine 2014, he was asked about big, long term winners at a casino. he stated, that he knew of none. not a single player! does anyone believe it is in the interest of a casino owner to tell all those who dream of beating the casino, that he is unaware of anyone doing it.   Â now, there is a guy i would believe. and, what does it say about all those who talk about advantage play, about how much they won in some single session, without talking about all their losing sessions. as i have said before, i enjoy hearing/reading about the big wins, but how about following up with the long term results. as paul harvey was famous for saying, and now the rest of the story.

Steve Wynn is indeed one of the biggest moguls in the casino industry and started the upward trend of those multi billion dollar resorts starting with Bellagio and Beau Rivage when he was with MGM. To financially support those billion dollar resorts, higher table game minimums and greater house edge slots are deployed, people play them in return for a high upscale quality of life. I think Wynn casinos are not for the average Joe. The good video poker does not offer much cash back and I think their main focus is to safeguard themselves against blackjack card counters, at least the Aria does it. Therefore, Wynn has the right to say that he has not seen anyone consistent in the long run.

I also regard Paul Harvey's quote very highly. I completely understand Bob's opinion about people posting on the Stories section, where they may be losing $5000 on a trip, but a single 4WAK $2000 hit, they will be overly excited and post that up. These days I try not to pay too much attention to the stories forum. I know the winnings you get from 4WAK may get wiped away in the next 3 or 4 hours in DDB.