How long would it take

[olds442jetaway]

[QUOTE=olds442jetaway]
     I have my own take on this. I am not saying the machines are rigged either, but I think jackpots are squashed to hit in a very small timeframe and it just so happens that I haven't been there when they have been hitting or they haven't been hitting in my area
How can you possibly say that "jackpots are squashed to hit in a very small timeframe", but say the machines are not rigged? Random is random, and any massaging of the machine results makes them not random, and the machine is therefore rigged. It can't be both ways. [/QUOTE]

     I expected at least one response in that regard. By rigged, I mean paying out less over time that the paytable would indicate. I have been playing enough millions of hands over the years to see that the frequency of premium hands being hit is being compressed at least it seems to be where I play. If they somehow compress the jackpots and over time the results fall in line with the paytable returns, ( meaning in job 99.54% on the 9/6 game), then I guess you could still say the machines are rigged. My theory and it is just that is that their tactic is to wait out the vp player hoping they will run out of time and money before the premium hands hit. If one gets lucky and hits early on in their session, most will pump most if not all of it back in and the casino makes out anyway. Again, this is just a theory on my part, but it is also based on observations and play of at 20-40 hours per week for over 22 years. Like KK, I see bunches of things like quads on job then stretches of 5 hours or more with none. Recently, I hit 4 quads on job in less than 5 minutes. Like Fla Phil has said many times...In vp anything can and will happen. It just seems to me that the weird stuff is much more frequent nowdays beginning with 2010. In the rest of the edit I have one more comment and I know that many people have noticed this over the last several years. Many more premium hands are hitting with 1 unit bet than with 5 or more. That could also explain why I have no W-2G's this year. I don't often play less that the correct amount for the Royal in draw poker or even Double Down Stud, but when I do, something good almost always hits in no time.

[ko king]

Going back to the original post, I object to premise that everybody here knows how often W2Gs are hit on dollar 9/6 TDB poker. I certainly didn’t know. I rarely play dollar games and a 98.2% game isn’t within my normal radar. There must be a high percentage of players here who either don’t play that game or don’t play for those stakes that they don’t know the numbers associated with it.
On VPW, I looked up the game and found out the frequencies for the three hands that would generate W2Gs --- namely royals ($4,000), aces with a kicker ($4,000), and 2s, 3s, 4s with a kicker ($2,000).
I then took the “inverse” of the frequencies. That is, using Excel, 1 divided by 39,709.83 is 0.0000251827, which is shown below in “powers of 10” notation. I then let my Excel spreadsheet do the same for the other two frequencies. I summed them up, and took the inverse again --- which showed you get one of these every 3,729.675 hands on average, which I’m going to call 3,700 throughout the rest of this post.




Royal



39,709.83



2.51827E-05










Aces with kicker

14,205.57



7.03949E-05










2,3,4 with kicker

5,795.68



0.000172542





































0.00026812



3729.675























The 3,700 hands is a “jackpot cycle.” I don’t know how fast KK plays or how long his sessions are, but remembering that he hit several taxables every session is likely a faulty memory. Depending on how fast he plays, it typically takes 4-6 hour on average to hit one of these jackpots. Playing four hours can easily cost you $5,000 or more when things run badly in this game. Most recreational players would bail out before that happened. That means most of his sessions, KK likely hit 0 W2Gs --- not multiple. The fact that he is hitting “one at most” now sounds about right to me.
In one cycle, that is 3,700 hands, you have about a 68% chance to connect on one of these hands. In two cycles, 7,400 hands, you have about a 95% chance. In three cycles, you have about a 99% chance.
How many cycles you go before concluding something is fishy depends on your prior beliefs about the fairness of the machines. If you think there’s a really good chance the machines are 100% fair (which is my belief when I’m playing in Nevada), then you’ll go quite a long time simply because long streaks, plus and minus, happen. If you think there’s a really good chance the machines are rigged, you’re not going to play so long
Since KKs playing a game with a very high variance (the variance is 100, compared to 19.5 for JoB or 25 for DW), the downstreaks will be VERY expensive.  In absolute terms, his losing streak could easily be $15,000 or more, whereas the same streak in JoB would put him behind $3,000 or so. If KK is married, it can be tough to explain away $15,000 or more.
If his question is what would I do, I can’t really go there. Playing 98.2% games just isn’t going to happen for me. But I can address 9/6 DDB Ultimate X, which has a variance of 92 or so --- which is in similar range to the TDB game he played.
I was playing $1 Ten Play Ultimate X ($100 a hand) at the Palms, so having NO jackpots wasn’t a real possibility. But losing $20,000 to $30,000 in one day happened numerous times. I ran bad in 2013 and was behind $100K at that one game for the year. In 2014, I ran slightly ahead until December when I was up $160,000 in one two week period. (The game was pulled in January --- well it wasn’t actually pulled but you no longer earn slot club points on it. I don’t know if you get mailers or comps based on your play.)
The game I played was 99.8%, plus 0.25% in free play, plus 0.2% in gift cards, plus mailers, plus unlimited comps. Even though I was behind $100,000 (not including gift cards and comps) in 2013 (over about $9,000,000 coin-in), it was never an active consideration to quit the game. I knew (believed) the numbers were on my side. If I lost $100,000 a year for five or more years in a row, I don’t know what I would do. There’s a limit somewhere. Fortunately it didn’t happen that way.
In KK’s case, he doesn’t have the luxury of playing a game where he has the edge (I don’t believe. I don’t know what the slot club and promotions are in the casino he frequents.) My solution would be to not play at all. Apparently that isn’t an option for him.

























































 
      
 
Bob, I must say an excellant post filled with plenty of not only interesting but also very educational information. I would like to point out that I never said I hit several taxables every session, what I said is I used to average hitting around 45 W-2G's per year and there was many a "night" I would walk out with multiple W-2G's. I also wouldn't say  that "most" of my sessions went without a W-2G, I would use the word "many" in that case. You're right about not having the luxary of playing a game where I have the edge in my area, not anymore.

[Vman96]

Since Bob put up some of the numbers in my Vegas absence, I would really start hating my luck at the 20,000 hand point, and begin to question its legality at the 40,000 hand point. But there some gamblers nationwide that have that 40,000 hand streak in Nevada, which most people here "trust to be far".

[DaBurglar]

[QUOTE=olds442jetaway]
     I have my own take on this. I am not saying the machines are rigged either, but I think jackpots are squashed to hit in a very small timeframe and it just so happens that I haven't been there when they have been hitting or they haven't been hitting in my area
How can you possibly say that "jackpots are squashed to hit in a very small timeframe", but say the machines are not rigged? Random is random, and any massaging of the machine results makes them not random, and the machine is therefore rigged. It can't be both ways. [/QUOTE]Aside from Bob Dancer's long, informative (and slightly controversial) post,  NO ONE of the group of posters who regularly attacks ME for suggesting AC's video poker sucks for reasons that are INTENTIONALLY caused,  took Ko King's invite (or "bait"  lol)  to answer or reply to his very straightforward appeal on essentially the same issue..... onemoretry made a indirect non-committal sideways reply via criticizing olds442 view of (and use of) the word "rigged" and how it conflicts with the ASSUMED perfect randomness inherent in legit video poker.C'mon people, give Ko King a solid, direct response......or is all your haughty vitriol reserved only for ME when I claim AC video poker is set to work like SLOTS?? Bob has some good, often excellent, points as usual, but he once again ALSO has no problem accusing a player of erroneous or "faulty memory" when it comes to addressing or explaining input or pieces of data that do not fit nicely into Bob's perfect world view of video poker.       But Bob ultimately scores major KUDOS from me for the simple, sheer fact that he STILL UTILIZES   EXCEL to the extent (and with such proficiency) that he does!!!    U rock, BOB!    But I will add one point, that to play the 3700  hands that BOB identifies in his "JACKPOT CYCLE" for 1$ TDB  would not take ME the 4-6 hours he claims.....I can ramp up my rate of play to 1200 hands or more an hour so I could cycle thru in 3 hours (maybe less!)   Ko King, I generally  would Question a game (depending on what the actual game is) on or around the 10,001 hand IF I had hit or won virtually NOTHING up to that point

[notes1]

Aside from Bob Dancer's long, informative (and slightly controversial) post,  NO ONE of the group of posters who regularly attacks ME for suggesting AC's video poker sucks for reasons that are INTENTIONALLY caused,  took Ko King's invite (or "bait"  lol)  to answer or reply to his very straightforward appeal on essentially the same issue..... onemoretry made a indirect non-committal sideways reply via criticizing olds442 view of (and use of) the word "rigged" and how it conflicts with the ASSUMED perfect randomness inherent in legit video poker.C'mon people, give Ko King a solid, direct response......or is all your haughty vitriol reserved only for ME when I claim AC video poker is set to work like SLOTS?? Bob has some good, often excellent, points as usual, but he once again ALSO has no problem accusing a player of erroneous or "faulty memory" when it comes to addressing or explaining input or pieces of data that do not fit nicely into Bob's perfect world view of video poker.          
 db, i agree with everything you wrote. well done!

[ko king]

Since Bob put up some of the numbers in my Vegas absence, I would really start hating my luck at the 20,000 hand point, and begin to question its legality at the 40,000 hand point. But there some gamblers nationwide that have that 40,000 hand streak in Nevada, which most people here "trust to be far".

 
 
Many thanks to you for a straight answer, no dancing around the question.
 
I passed the hating my luck stage quite a few trips ago, right now I'm just shy of questioning the legality stage as you put it. If and when I do pass the 40K hand dead streak I will still stop short of saying the machines ares "rigged" or "illegal", there's not a doubt in my mind that each and every vp machine in the casino contains a completely sealed intact approved RNG program.

[misterlister]

File this incident under "more evidence".

[FloridaPhil]

I think one of the main reasons contributing to the idea that the games have changed is that most of today's players are playing games with a much higher variance than we had years ago. Few players have the time and bankroll to beat Super Times Pay, Multi-Strike, UltimateX, much less DDB.  I think if players stuck to the old time standard games they would be a lot better off.  Just my two cents... 

[FAA]

If players stuck to the old time standard games they would be a lot better off. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Preaching to the choir. Advanced games do keep the VP crowd off my banks, which would otherwise be completely congested. So we must acknowledge this fringe benefit. Casinos are certainly more than happy to supply the high variance VP.

[onemoretry]

By rigged, I mean paying out less over time that the paytable would indicate. I have been playing enough millions of hands over the years to see that the frequency of premium hands being hit is being compressed at least it seems to be where I play
And, the balance of the post is devoted to explaining why you feel they way.

That's fine. But, is that not contrary to what you stated in the previous post, i.e., "I am not saying the games are rigged"? That is the inconsistency I was pointing out.