Florida Phil's Obsession with Me

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=onemoretry]To me, this is a weakness of this "system".
What if the max hit bets fail to appear?[/quote]The same thing that happens if you play with Bob Dancer's strategy and royal flushes do not appear.   I'm not lobbying for the "ultimate winning video poker strategy".  All I'm saying is that Cheap Strategy allows me to play longer, stretch my play and have more chances at being lucky.   The problem I have with Bob Dancer is that he states unequivocally that CS is worthless. People who have actually tried CS for any period of time know that my results are real.  Luck is luck whether it comes to me or Bob Dancer.There is absolutely nothing wrong with Bob Dancer teaching players how to find the best games, play correctly and take advantage of comps.  All of this is great and I thank him for it.  Unfortunately, playing less than 100% games is mostly a loser no matter how you play and flat betting max coins is an even bigger loser on these games.  I don't think I'm obsessed by him as much as he is obsessed with discrediting CS.  I'm not making any money promoting single coin quarter play, so why does he care if a bunch of quarter players want to save a little money and extend their fun?  I'll leave that up to you.

[alpax]

The way I see it, Bob Dancer is not necessarily trying to teach people how to be like him or how to be a professional VP player. All he is really saying to the recreational player is: (i) pay attention to pay tables and find the best ones you can; (ii) study and practice strategy so you are playing as optimally as possible; and (iii) pay attention to benefits such as points, giveaways, comps, etc., which have value and will add to your total return. It's like watching a how-to video by a PGA pro -- he doesn't expect you to play as well as him, but he's giving basic pointers that will allow you to maximize your skill and play better. Of course, Mr. Dancer might disagree, but that is how I look at it. He's not trying to sell anyone a bill of goods.

Well stated/understood. I would appreciate more of these types of posts coming from you.



[quote=onemoretry]To me, this is a weakness of this "system".
What if the max hit bets fail to appear?The same thing that happens if you play with Bob Dancer's strategy and royal flushes do not appear.   I'm not lobbying for the "ultimate winning video poker strategy".  All I'm saying is that Cheap Strategy allows me to play longer, stretch my play and have more chances at being lucky.   The problem I have with Bob Dancer is that he states unequivocally that his strategy is the only way to win and that CS is worthless. People who have actually tried CS for any period of time know that my results are real.  Luck is luck whether it comes to me or Bob Dancer.  I just admit it.

[/QUOTE]

Yes, being under the RF cycle is the downside to all video poker playing approaches/perspectives. To get the games with the lowest hold percentage (I would say under 1%), one must play at higher denominations ($1 in most places and $5 at Cherokee). They might have to play with a much higher bankroll and/or time requirement than they are comfortable with, that is the disclaimer that might be the most overlooked.

[BobDancer]

The way I see it, Bob Dancer is not necessarily trying to teach people how to be like him or how to be a professional VP player. All he is really saying to the recreational player is: (i) pay attention to pay tables and find the best ones you can; (ii) study and practice strategy so you are playing as optimally as possible; and (iii) pay attention to benefits such as points, giveaways, comps, etc., which have value and will add to your total return. It's like watching a how-to video by a PGA pro -- he doesn't expect you to play as well as him, but he's giving basic pointers that will allow you to maximize your skill and play better. Of course, Mr. Dancer might disagree, but that is how I look at it. He's not trying to sell anyone a bill of goods.Close enough.Insofar as the CS is concerned, it might be taken down now. I couldn't follow the old links. For those of you who seriously want to win more or lose less, this is a good thing. There are many dangerous statements in the CS.But if you read it, you'll see at the bottom the strategy suggests, in very bold letters, about frequently leaving the casino with $1000 in cash. It treats it as a regular event, not an isolated event. Four deuces happen every 5500 hands or so. The exact frequency depends on what strategy you use, which should depend on which pay schedule you're playing and whether you're playing one coin or five. (FP says to disregard these differences and playing with 98% accuracy is close enough. If any of you are playing for real money that's important to you, you should disregard what he says)FP says he plays single-line quarters 90% of the time and full pay dollars 10% of the time. Assuming that's true (which is a MUCH more expensive way to play than 5-coin quarters ALL the time, assuming identical pay schedules), he's only going to hit four deuces while playing max coin dollars every 55,000 hands. Pretty rare event. You'll get more $1000 jackpots than that playing max coin quarters all the time. And it won't be anywhere near "frequent."For those who say "don't knock it until you've tried it," and there have been several posts here to that effect, do you have to actually try swallowing strychnine to know it's bad for you? It's very possible to have outside knowledge that can help you decide whether something is a good idea or bad. Perhaps some of you haven't studied various "make money quick" schemes in the past. But I have. And I'm very leery of them. And suggest you should be too.Will some people have better results this year using CS than they did last year playing 5 coins? Of course. And many will have worse years. On average, it's a system that HURTS your bottom line, not helps it.Do I care whether any particular member of this forum uses CS. Not really. You can spend your money as you see fit. Do I care about warning you what a bad strategy it is? Absolutely. I decided years ago that I would try to help people gamble smarter. Part of that is explaining why a particular strategy is highly flawed.As far as I can see, FP isn't making any money promoting his CS. (Or, as he says now, not promoting his CS). He's a "true believer." Listening to a true believer promote a snake oil system is a dangerous thing if you don't have the background to know what a flawed system it is. It has a lot in common with a weight loss scheme. The originator of such a scheme and a few others will rave about how good it is. Those who try it at home will discover that it doesn't work for them. And even the originator, two or three years later, will generally be fatter than ever.  In his most recent posts, he brags about playing one coin $5 machines instead of five coin $1 machines. WTF? For the same pay schedule, the former has a significantly lower EV. It only matters on a dealt royal, but if you can gain that extra 1.5% of EV at no cost to yourself, you should do it. Whether you're a professional player or a recreational player. Anyone who would voluntarily give that up is hardly a guru worth following.

[FloridaPhil]

I think Mr.Dancer protests too much.   The new link to the CS strategy website is here.  If you insist on flat betting max coins on a negative expectation video poker machine you will continue to lose long term.  That I am sure Bob agrees with.  If that's all that is available to you and you are tired of giving your hard earned money to the casino, check out CS.  It's not as bad as he would lead you to believe.  I'm not the devil or a fool and I don't believe he is either.   CS has value to recreational players with limited budgets, but no one here is being paid to promote it.  

[wildman49]

I think Mr.Dancer protests too much. 




I think hes a dumb a$$ but what do I know. Save 4% playing cheap? Will keep doing so. You can do math on max bet after max bet and can see the end result. But getting to the dollar level above $25 then bang out a few $20 four of a kinds, pocket the ticket and start over with a $20 at .25 bet is not the same. You can't put math on this kind of play, only results will give you the answer.I think his losses are made up in comps/promos, speaking fees, elt. As a high roller there are perks.

[BobDancer]

I think his losses are made up in comps/promos great. As a high roller there are perks.
Correct --- assuming you're including mailers, drawings, and other goodies as well. Games which return more than 100% are simply not available for stakes I wish to play. But comps and promos are available to low rollers as well. Playing during the best promotions will gain you far more than using CS. Learning to play with 100% accuracy will gain you far more than using CS. Avoiding the worst machines altogether will gain you far more than CSYou keep suggesting you've lost 4% less this year. Congratulations. But how do you figure? is it based on equal coin-in? Do you have less coin-in this year? How frequent are your pot shots? Losing $10,000 last year and "only" $9600 through mid-October this year isn't exactly something to celebrate. Keep playing! You'll make it all the way to $10,000 yet. And even exceed it. It's within your grasp!The fact that you keep using the 4% figure over and over again is suspicious. Surely the percentage amount changes with every trip. It is impossible that the ups and downs this year track perfectly with the ups and downs last year --- except always being 4% less. More likely is you came up with that figure, however you figured it, and have stuck with repeating it rather than calculating it anew.CS won't save anybody 4% on a continued basis. In fact, it will make your percentage losses GREATER, not smaller. The only way it has a chance of helping you is if your coin-in goes down. And, of course, if your coin-in goes down to zero, that will lower your losses by 100% --- whether you don't play using CS or don't play using any other strategy.Keep in mind that any year's score contains a lot of variance. If you "should" lose $10,000 based on the EV of the games, your coin-in, the available slot club and promotions, and your skill level, your actual result will be somewhere in the range of +2,000 and -$20,000 --- probably. The exact number it came out to be by December 31 has a large random element to it. The fact that this year's current losses are 4% smaller than last years at a particular point in time is hardly a significant amount. That is arguably close enough to be a statistical tie. And since the 4% number keeps getting repeated and never updated, it's statistically meaningless.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Bo Dancer]But comps and promos are available to low rollers as
well. Playing during the best promotions will gain you far more than
using CS. Learning to play with 100% accuracy will gain you far more
than using CS. Avoiding the worst machines altogether will gain you far
more than CS[/quote]Here's a perfect example of where Bob Dancer is out of touch with the reality that most small denomination recreational players experience.  Video poker is not eligible for extra point promotions at the casinos where I play and free play offers are also cut to the bone. Video poker players in most of the US are being penalized by casinos that think everyone is a Bob Dancer.  It is totally possible to lose $5,000 or more a year playing max coin quarter 8/5 DDB or any similar game even with perfect strategy.  That's the best we have in Florida and you either pay to play or do something about it. My weekly video poker budget is $250 and there is no way I could play video poker any cheaper than I do.  CS works for me.  I don't know what I can do to prove that beyond posting actual photos of my wins.  Playing Bob Dancer strategy on an overall negative expectation video poker game will cause you to lose more money than CS.  Don't take my word for it.  Try it yourself and see.  What do you have to lose, a few quarters? 

[case]

PhilI am enjoying this back and forth banter and do not wish to get in the middle of it. However I would like you to respond to a statement  you have made and one Dancer commented  about:You sometimes play 5 dollar one coin instead of 5 coin on dollars. Why would you do this? Like Bob said it is a big cut in pay back.

[wildman49]

You keep suggesting you've lost 4% less this year. Congratulations. But how do you figure? is it based on equal coin-in? Do you have less coin-in this year? How frequent are your pot shots? UNLIKE you I will give a full report at the end of the year. My coin in this year is down about 100K from last year do to the cheap systems. I lost 4% of my coin in last year. This year I am down a quarter percent on my coin in. I am not going to post less then a full point there for the 3.75% gain from last year to be exact for someone one who is anal. I have been within a 1% range all year. The only reason I am not up for the year is I have not hit the big hand on max bet, have had many many shots none came in yet. It's only a matter of time. I also play these systems on 20 coin machines for the most part so I am not giving up the FULL royal payout on minimum bet.Pot shots a very few. I just don't get the problem here. You just think we who use a system are blowing smoke? Why would I bother to post BS? Why would Phil spend time posting BS? There is no reason, just our results. Better then any max betting year ever. Why must you a $25 a hand player be a non believer?Here is your challenge, go to a 20 coin machine that has $1. Play five bucks a hand DW max to 20 coins on a 4ok and then show us your findings. What do you have to lose? You will not get the benefit of moving to the next level unless the machine has $5 as many times this gets your losses back from the lower betting level.This is your chance to tell us its BS, it don't work, I dare you to step up and show you are willing to put the time into it like a few of us have before bashing it. Dare ya.

[BobDancer]

For a guy who says he's not going to promote his CS anymore, FP is sure posting a lot in its defense.$250 a week, huh? That's $13,000 a year. (That just might make you a mid-size roller on this site.) Quit playing a few years and you'll have sufficient bankroll to play dollars. You can actually play in New Orleans at an advantage on $1 Triple Play NSU, including various promotions. That's close enough to Florida for you to go there a few times a year (especially since they'll cover your airfare and rooms) and become Seven Stars. to be sure you'll have to build up your bankroll a bit, but skipping a few years of $250/week losses will have you there in very little time. You'll have to build up your accuracy level from the 98% accuracy you say is okay, but hey --- you have some time to do it while you're putting your $250 a week in the bank! That's a far better solution than playing 97% games --- however many quarters at a time!