Poisson Distribution - Royal Flushes

[Benford's Law]

@New2vp - Sure, I've had runs of really good and bad luck with quads over those 2 years/480K+ hands.  My biggest problem is that the closest casino from my home offering 98%+ VP (at 25c and 50c levels) is 100 miles away...and I'm certainly not going to keep pressing my luck too much with 95-96% payback machines offered closer to home (maybe 25c machines on rare occasions for fun).
There have been numerous occasions where I have wondered if the machines were "fixed" since I have been running so dry on royals for so long.  I cannot give any firm answers here....but you are aware of the American Coin incident in Nevada that took place?  Those machines were programmed to only give out a royal at half the normal frequency.  How in the world could a casual gambler detect such a clever con?
 
Another interesting question I wonder is....what motivation would a state's Gaming Commission have in shutting down a casino or game manufacturer that cheats its players in a subtle fashion like American Coin did?  The players would never have any proof, and the state would lose a large employer along with a healthy source of tax revenue....The impetus doesn't seem very strong for a state regulatory commission to do something drastic (involving tens, if not hundreds, of millions of dollars along with the livelihoods of potentially thousands of employees) like this just because a few gamblers were losing a few more dollars than they otherwise should.  What if these large businesses were well aware of this dynamic working in their favor and they were, indeed, cheating people in small ways we could not detect?  Call me a cynic or paranoid....but I agree that going this long without a royal does leave me asking questions like this....
 
No, I'm not looking for a Fa La La La La.... La la la la-esque debate over the legitimacy of RNG's....Just stating a scary fact that the interests of the state and large institutions (ie. casinos) will always take precedence over the concerns of a few lowly, individual gamblers who feel they may have been cheated (even if the gamblers were right!) because the Golden Rule will always be followed in this case....."He who has the gold, rules."
 
~Benford's Law

[cddenver]

There have been numerous occasions where I have wondered if the machines were "fixed" since I have been running so dry on royals for so long.  I cannot give any firm answers here....but you are aware of the American Coin incident in Nevada that took place?  Those machines were programmed to only give out a royal at half the normal frequency.  How in the world could a casual gambler detect such a clever con?

 
Benford's Law, I'm still scratching my head over your RF dry spell.  I've been playing 14 years, and I've never had one even half that long.  It's a subject that comes up regularly here, and I don't remember anyone posting about anything even approaching yours.  Several of us have posted about 200K hands between RF's, but I don't think I've seen anything much higher than that.  I know MikeA's in a bad one.  But as a previous poster said, maybe this is a case of if you get enough monkeys playing VP, sooner or later one of them will have a run like that.
 
The American Coin con comes up now and again.  I don't know how that came to light, and if anyone has the details I'd be interested in reading them.  A whistle-blower at American Coin?  A casino manager/club owner in the know who got an attack of the "honests"?  Angry players?  A routine inspection by the gaming commission?  I worked in another regulated industry for many years, and we were required by law to provide copies of our computer models (including source code) to regulators on demand.  Maybe it was something like that.
 
As far as the RNG's go, I agree that it hasn't been long enough since the last go-round to warrant another one.  But I did want to repeat two things that came up last time.  Another forum member wrote that casinos already have a good thing going with negative return games, and also have the legal option of simply lowering paytables - why is anything else needed?  Second, I pointed out that more and more opportunities for gaming are opening up each year in other states which would be another incentive for the gaming commission to keep things honest in Nevada.
 
All I know about the American Coin story is what I saw in a documentary years ago, so someone may correct me on what I'm about to write.  I believe they were more of a smaller "niche" manufacturer, perhaps struggling, perhaps trying to get a foot in the door to the big time.  If so, that might have had something to do with the con.  But as I said, someone more familiar with the story may correct me on that.
 
And on a personal note, I'd like to say - Boy, you sure do write purty!  Are you a lawyer?    I always struggle with my longer postings.
 
 
 
 

[Benford's Law]

@cddenver - Wow, you've been playing for 14 years?  I've been playing for about 7 years, myself.  I agree that all the reasons you provided for the casinos not to cheat appear to be good ones, and I am just waiting for someone to come along on this thread and say that it would also require a vast conspiracy amongst a wide range of employees from different companies and agencies to pull off a scam on the players.All these reasons sound well and good, but if one can suspend disbelief for just a few moments and listen to all the people give reasons why a casino would not cheat its customers for a fatter profit margin, wouldn't that be exactly what a potentially cheating casino or other entity would want players to say in the first place?  It would be an excellent tool to alleviate the suspicions of more skeptical players without the larger institutions having to say a word about the issue.  Let me give a clearer example of what I mean:  Let's say I'm an experienced safe cracker and a home invader.  I've successfully broken into the office den of your mansion and I stumble upon you and a friend sharing a scotch on the rocks by the fireplace.  I've successfully hidden myself in a dark shadow in a corner of the room waiting for you and your friend to retire for the night so I can come out of hiding and steal your valuables from your office safe.  I make a sudden movement and you hear a creaking noise in the background.  You ask your friend,  "Did you hear that noise?".  Your friend replies, "Nah!  You're just imagining things!  Let's go downstairs....". You shake your head, shrug your shoulders, and heed your friend's request by walking out of the room with him.   All I am left with now is a big smile on my face as I get ready to rob you blind.  Your friend unwittingly did all the dirty work for me by alleviating your suspicions that a thief may indeed be in your room.  Your buddy did exactly what I wanted him to do without his even realizing it.So, yes, people can give me all kinds of reasons why a casino, gaming company, or gaming commission would have the players' best interests at heart....but if any of them happen to be crooks....these naysayers can unwittingly become the cheater's best accomplice.~Benford's LawPS.  Thanks for the compliments on my writing.  I am not a lawyer.  I am a perpetual student of the stock market.

[subsailor]

I know the feeling.  Have had 6 Royals in 10 year period.  Two in one day.  Nothing for past 4 yrs.  Have to be grateful for small wins and going home even.