A year in Quads - 2013

[pokerforme]

I guess if your job takes you inside a casino its pretty hard not to be gambling in some form. The money some of those guys threw around seemed way over the top.

[Vman96]

  Huck Seed also hit a vp machine for a bundle, same scenario as Hellmuth.

Not quite. Huck's machine was actually positive at the time, which is why he played it in the first place. Hellmuth is just playing 9/6 JoB here.

[DaBurglar]

   Burglar, I will accept that premise as it applies to live poker. That is one of the reasons that I do not play, except for tournaments. I would get sliced and diced, since I do not have the skills.
 
I take exception, though, with you carrying that same rationale to VP. Since we are playing against a machine, and not each other, increased knowledge and skill should INCREASE our returns. The 'luck' factor has not changed. What is being observed by many, however, is that returns are DIMINISHING.








 
***PLEASE NOTE BEFORE GOING ANY FURTHER:  My previous allusion to 'degenerate gamblers' and my subsequent allusion to them, is not meant to seperate and elevate myself above the rest of the casino patronage crowd.....I am INCLUDED in the aforementioned population of ....'degenerate gamblers'!  I am not better than anyone, if anything I may be worse, but I have other redeeming qualities (just like Tedlark....and just like the rest of you....) which allow me to speak and offer insight and solutions to the situation at hand. ****
 
 
Fundamentally William joseph, you and I are in agreement.....what I meant to say with regards to Video Poker is that, as players have become better and better, the casinos in turn have responded by lowering paytables EVERYWHERE, and (no matter what others insist) have been messing with the internal functionality of how the actual hand results are generated and put into play....in other words, they are indeed "rigging" their machines.....not EVERYO)NE, not EVERYWHERE, and not ALL THE MACHINES in any given casino at any given time......but certainly, when a player now sits down at a VP machine and attempts to play his/her favorite game (say for instance, 8/5 Bonus Poker, a 99.2% return), he/she is no longer assured that the game's theoretical return is in fact the BOTTOM line!   Many machines/games have been (or are subject to) altered or rigged or weighted results such that the actual return percentage is wayyyyyyy below the paytable theoretical return % !!!  
 
For those in denial, all I can say *at this point*,  is to just KEEP playing, keep forking over the moolah into your favorite games until you cannot deny it any longer....
 
 
On a year to year basis (or even a 6-month basis) NO ONE is winning or turning A TRUE UNADULTERATED PROFIT anymore at Video Poker, no one is even breaking even.....UNLESS, of course, they start employing the funky voodoo-esque economics practices for degenerate gamblers whereby you start including all the free slot play, all the free valet parking vouchers, all the free donuts and steak and any other "comped" food, all the free rooms. etc etc etc  in the "WINNING(s)" column of your personal  P& L Spreadsheet, and use it to offset all the true losses from all your busted, abysmal playing sessions.
 
Of course, you can always find an exception that desperate people will attempt to use to disprove this rule .... the one person who magically hit that once in a lifetime hand (like the previously recorded dealt royal for $100,000) and thusly, had a profitbale year.    But anyone who is now playing Video poker on a consistent basis in one of the major casino markets (even Vegas!)  can no longer deny the game(s) are functioning and performing and spitting out results that are, even on the best of days, no where near what the games used to produce (I am going to say, BEFORE 2003, but definitely before 2007 and the recession.....prior to these date(s), video poker in general in all the markets that I played in performed and yielded results that were definitely close to what you would mathematically EXPECT!)
 
Since 2007,  its been a travesty, no longver can it be denied.....for further input from me, please redirect yourselves to the thread in the ATLANTIC CITY ShhittCHAT section........

[chattycattty]

There are some people out there that are still winning. Not me but I am not far from being even for the year and finished about even last year. Some people are just luckier than others. A good positive attitude is really helpful when playing video poker or for anything else you endeavor to do. IMO that is where a lot of the luck comes from.

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billyjoe]   Burglar, I will accept that premise as it applies to live poker. That is one of the reasons that I do not play, except for tournaments. I would get sliced and diced, since I do not have the skills.
 
I take exception, though, with you carrying that same rationale to VP. Since we are playing against a machine, and not each other, increased knowledge and skill should INCREASE our returns. The 'luck' factor has not changed. What is being observed by many, however, is that returns are DIMINISHING.









Fundamentally William joseph, you and I are in agreement..... 
 
Of course, you can always find an exception that desperate people will attempt to use to disprove this rule .... the one person who magically hit that once in a lifetime hand (like the previously recorded dealt royal for $100,000) and thusly, had a profitbale year.     [/QUOTE]
Well, Burglar, I am glad that you added that we are in agreement, because when someone calls me "William Joseph" (like a former grade school teacher or my mother), it is because of something that I did wrong.
 
I think, though, that you cannot discount the 'magical' hand, as you say, since that hand is part of the overall calculated return on a specific machine and game. If a game is calculated at 99.6% return, that percentage includes the, albeit infrequent, RF for 4000 credits.  

[DaBurglar]

You are correct Billy Joe in the sense that obviously that huge "magical hand" means everything in terms of result analysis FOR THE INDIVIDUAL who receives it, much the same way a company who does R&D suddenly hits upon the "magical formula" for a new patented drug that will cure the heebie jeebies without harmful side effects, and their huge R&D budget (which in a way is a type of 'gamble')  now yields a unexpected yet nonetheless valid windfall and thus pumps their stock price and provides years a financial survival in the midst of a tough economic free for all environment! 
 
But in terms of overall analysis of the GAME in general at the global level and looking at how EVERYONE does, when we weed out these exceptional hands (which occur even with 'rigged' machines, almost at the same freqeuncy)  we see that the crucial hands that allow a player like you and mini-me to survive (hands like quads, full houses and flushes) are wayyyyy down in frequency due to all these dud hands propagating the data stream.
 
 
 
There are some people out there that are still winning. Not me but I am not far from being even for the year and finished about even last year. Some people are just luckier than others. A good positive attitude is really helpful when playing video poker or for anything else you endeavor to do. IMO that is where a lot of the luck comes from.
 
 
Cathy, no doubt a positive attitude is always a good thing and never hurts, I just dont quite agree with the DEGREE that it helps or how much.   I am certain I would have received the same equally crappy results if I sat there with a smile on my face whistling the theme song to Andy Griffith as I pounded the keys on the Video Poker machine(s) here in AC!      But again, I do admire your positive outlook on things and I do try to maintain such even in the face of adversity or pain and suffering!

[chattycattty]

DaBurglar, perhaps a change in scenery will do you good. The grass always seems greener on the other side of the fence. I hope when you go to Vegas that your luck will turn around for you. If not it might be time for a hiatus as far as VP is concerned. You just seem so frustrated. Not to mention the money it is costing you but when you add to it the emotional anguish it is bearing on you it just not seem like something that a rational person would continue to do.

In any event it is time to get rid of that stinking thinking as Zig Ziglar used to say. Its time for a check up from the neck up. Best wishes to you as you continue your journey forward.

[Tedlark]

Vman I know the game Huck Seed was positive when he was playing it, my thinking as far as the scenario was that both he and Hellmuth are fiends for action.

[BillyJoe]

You are correct Billy Joe in the sense that obviously that huge "magical hand" means everything in terms of result analysis FOR THE INDIVIDUAL who receives it,  
 
Well, my point, Burglar, is how much the RF payoff contributes to the overall return on a particular game. Using VPW, I changed 9/6 JOB to return 0 on an RF. That changed the Expected Return on the game from 99.6% to 97.9%.
 
So, said differently, that is really the return on that game if you believe, for whatever reason, that an RF is beyond your reach.  

[Galeygoo]

  Another poster here wrote of Chris Moneymaker being a degenerate gambler and Chris himself mentioned this in the movie made about Black Friday. When you see the other professional poker players, the: Helmuth's and Negranau's; the Matesow's and the Laak's, you see that they ALL make prop bets on everything. This would make them ALL degenerate gamblers in my mind and not just Moneymaker. The people who watch these top tier players on television and see the lifestyle that is portrayed on television don't actually see how much work these players put in online as well.
Another poster, hmmmm, who would that be?  Enough already, guys,  
Anyhoo, lol  always enjoyed watching pretty boy Negranau and Mr. Ego, Helmuth... Lord, Get over yourself, Phil.   Matesow, hmmmm  and another Phil, Mr. Laak, um, unibomber, try to make some eye contact,man