Understanding casino math

[FAA]

It makes you feel better, but in the long run won't help much.  On the
other hand, if switching machines helps you to stay positive that's a
good thing. What happens is this; we switch machines and occasionally
something good happens. Our brains try to make sense out of a totally
random event and convince us switching machines works. Yeah, but a day tripper is hardly in it for the long run. I switched to an adjacent machine and turned a massacre into a mosquito bite loss. Was I ever relieved to escape! If you're on an ice cold loser, get the hell off! Unfortunately it will not be recouping a $1900 two day loss. Yowza.

[ko king]

It makes you feel better, but in the long run won't help much.  On the
other hand, if switching machines helps you to stay positive that's a
good thing. What happens is this; we switch machines and occasionally
something good happens. Our brains try to make sense out of a totally
random event and convince us switching machines works. Yeah, but a day tripper is hardly in it for the long run. I switched to an adjacent machine and turned a massacre into a mosquito bite loss. Was I ever relieved to escape! If you're on an ice cold loser, get the hell off! Unfortunately it will not be recouping a $1900 two day loss. Yowza.




I've tried it both ways, switching machines seems to work better for a player like myself who plays 3-5 hours per trip. I've spent entire trips banging away on the same machine expecting something to change any minute but it rarely does. In truth I can only remember a couple of times over a 20 year stretch it paid off for me. Now days I jump from machine to machine and I usually end up catching a hand or two to finish ahead or limit my loss for the day. A couple of weeks ago I noticed a guy playing $5 denomination DDB at max play, he was pretty pissed off, slapping buttons and complaining. He turned and ask me if I would watch the machine for him while he went to get more money, I agreed to do so. He came back after about 30 minutes and began to feed $100 bills into the machine. After a while I heard him say "finally", he had hit quad Aces w/kicker for $10K. I said good for you and wasn't a bit surprised when he said he had been playing the same machine for about 8 hours and after that hit he was still $2K down for the day.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=ko king]After a while I heard him say "finally", he had hit quad Aces w/kicker
for $10K. I said good for you and wasn't a bit surprised when he said he
had been playing the same machine for about 8 hours and after that hit
he was still $2K down for the day.[/quote]As yes, the old DDB big hit routine. I see this all the time and I still can't understand why so many seemingly knowledgeably people play DDB.  This game is impossible to beat for longer than a few days at a time.  It is totally brutal on your bankroll and there is no way you are ever going to recoup your losses long term.  To each his own I guess...

[alpax]

[quote=ko king]After a while I heard him say "finally", he had hit quad Aces w/kicker
for $10K. I said good for you and wasn't a bit surprised when he said he
had been playing the same machine for about 8 hours and after that hit
he was still $2K down for the day.As yes, the old DDB big hit routine. I see this all the time and I still can't understand why so many seemingly knowledgeably people play DDB.  This game is impossible to beat for longer than a few days at a time.  It is totally brutal on your bankroll and there is no way you are ever going to recoup your losses long term.  To each his own I guess...


[/QUOTE]

Not trying to patronize anyone who is a fan of DDB or even TDB.

The biggest reason I see is that "Jacks or Better is boring, and DDB is way more exciting; why play a game if you are not going to have any fun?".

Fun in 9/6 DDB vs 9/6 JoB is about twice the cost even with a good slot club cashback rate.

DDB is very brutal during a bad day, its variance suggests more than double the bankroll needed to play over a JoB game. I very well know one day session is just that one day of the long run bell curve, but getting ruined with a $1000 bankroll on $1 9/6 DDB (played computer optimal) in less than 2 hours is not a good feeling. I know you play the next time to win most of it back.

2 to 1 for 2 pairs in a non-Deuces Wild game is so overlooked.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=alpax]The biggest reason I see is that "Jacks or Better is boring, and DDB is
way more exciting; why play a game if you are not going to have any
fun?"[/quote]My wife and I both struggled with this for a long time. With all our video poker road trips, vacations and weekly sessions, we needed a game that we could play for a long time without eating up our bankroll.  Jacks did this, but it's soooo boring.  Both of us finally settled on deuces wild and it works for us. I get the excitement factor of a DDB 4-of-kind, but the cost while you're waiting can be excruciating. We are both totally sold on DW.  I'm way ahead since switching and my wife is a little behind on her bankroll.  We've been pooling our money lately and it helps to balance out the wins and losses.  One of us always seems to do better which helps the team.  Some casinos even allow us to pool our points on the same card. Anything you can do to cut the casino edge is a plus.This is an example of where using casino math is helpful. Math is a very important part of video poker as long as you don't ignore the fact that there is always a chance you will lose even if you play computer perfect.  Professional video poker players know this better than anyone, but they only write about winning. No one wants to read a book or an article about losing.

[djc32]

[QUOTE=FloridaPhil]


I see this all the time and I still can't understand why so many seemingly knowledgeably people play DDB.  This game is impossible to beat for longer than a few days at a time.  It is totally brutal on your bankroll and there is no way you are ever going to recoup your losses long term.  To each his own I guess...




Not trying to patronize anyone who is a fan of DDB or even TDB.

The biggest reason I see is that "Jacks or Better is boring, and DDB is way more exciting; why play a game if you are not going to have any fun?".

Fun in 9/6 DDB vs 9/6 JoB is about twice the cost even with a good slot club cashback rate.

DDB is very brutal during a bad day, its variance suggests more than double the bankroll needed to play over a JoB game. I very well know one day session is just that one day of the long run bell curve, but getting ruined with a $1000 bankroll on $1 9/6 DDB (played computer optimal) in less than 2 hours is not a good feeling. I know you play the next time to win most of it back.

2 to 1 for 2 pairs in a non-Deuces Wild game is so overlooked.[/QUOTE]

Great points.

When I first started going to my local casino I would play Super Aces and SDDB, because these are the 2 highest returning games they offer, even though I prefer DW and BDW.(DW is one of the lowest returning games they offer, so I rarely go there anymore)

I quickly learned the difference in BR and mindset needed in order to survive in between 4 oaks on these games compared to DW,and it just wasn't for me.


The only non DW game I will play now (if it has a higher return than DW) is BPDX, it's not as boring as JOB and not as draining as DDB.

[FloridaPhil]

I think the biggest mistake recreational players make is playing high volatility games with too small a bankroll.  I know I did and I lost most of the time. If you're going by a casino and you want to throw a couple hundred bucks in just to see what happens, I'm OK with that.  If you play as your recreation or hobby as we do, you need a strategy that doesn't constantly wipe you out.  I know it's a great thrill to hit 4 aces with a kicker, but it very rarely happens and it costs you big time just to get there.  It's the old tortoise and the hare story, only in video poker the hare is bankrupt and homeless.

[olds442jetaway]

And the tortoise already has a built in barrel around himself just in case he gets skunked once in awhile.

[notes1]

Unfortunately it will not be recouping a $1900 two day loss. Yowza.


 i report the good and the bad, not sure everyone does. just like in a previous report, i made over $1800.

[notes1]

If you're going by a casino and you want to throw a couple hundred bucks in just to see what happens, I'm OK with that.  .

 glad to hear you are ok with what someone else does with their own money.