Double up or not

[DaBurglar]

There is a HUGE assumption within this (apparently endorsed by none other than Bob Dancer himself) that the typical "double up" utility available on every single video poker machine in every single casino in the USA is in fact just a simple program of "High card", whereby the function is simply a 52 card randomly shuffled deck out of which 5 cards are randomly selected, one for the "dealer" and four others set aside for the player to CHOOSE one from the four.......if indeed that is ALL this function truly is, with no "weighted" selection criteria or other factors involved, then DOUBLE UP is indeed a GOOD THING.BUT.......I personally have NOT seen the evidence, nor had it explained to me when I asked (either by casino managers, slot techs, pit bosses or anyone else in a position to know), that the double up function is in fact as simple and straightforward as we assume here.....I have, at various times throughout my player history going back to 1995 when I first encountered the double up option, regularly utilized it for any win on a video poker hand below full house.....that is to say, I used to consistently hit "YES" on double up for any Jacks or better, 2 pair, 3 of a kind, Straight or flush when playing video poker;   I played this way from about 1996 thru 1998, then I stopped using it for a while, then started using it again in 2002 thru 2004, then reduced to only sporadic usage.Almost ALL my play during the above time periods was in Las Vegas and/or Reno, and most of my play was on JOB (9/6 and even a few 10/7 machines which could still be found as late as the mid 2000s in a few Nevada locales;  I also played a fair amount of Bonus Poker and DDB as well.....I used to keep detailed and copious records of my play back then, and I can confidently state that my success rate at hitting double up functions on the games I played up through 2004/2005 was around 33%.......no where near 50%, and it goes beyond this mere statistical summary/average:     During one stretch from May 2002 thru MArch of 2003, I played a total 21,500 hands that involved me hitting the double up feature ...during this stretch my success was a little higher than my average (I won or tied about 35% of the time), but amongst the 65% hands that I lost, almost 60% of those were hands that I either hand NO chance of winning or drawing (meaning ALL the cards amongst the four choices were losers), and about 10% ONLY a chance of a draw (whereby at least ONE of the four was a "draw"). . . . . very very fishy to me.....Even these last few years in AC, while I do not REGULARLY utilize double up, of the few times I have used it, I definitely have lost more often than I won......and I do not know any single person who can report differently.

[notes1]

alpax, we got off topic. the original statement was, he could not understand why anyone would pay a game, where they do not have an advantage. i disagree with broad generalizations and that statement is included. i can think of plenty of examples where one may play a poor return VP machine. if you and him only choose to play machines that you have an advantage, that is your privilege. but, you better be wiling to limit your play, if you in certain parts of the country, or only play when you travel to places that have the odds you want.,  many are not willing to just play unless favorable odds conditions exist or move to someplace, just so they can get the odds they seek.  some of us, just play for fun. 

[Tedlark]

  DaBurglar if you read my post to Bob Dancer I for one do not think that the double up feature is a good thing.    I doubt the validity of it being a 50-50 proposition and if it is less than 50-50 then the odds go up in favor of the house.   So you state that the double up feature is a "GOOD THING" but yet you say your success rate is well below that of 50-50? Confusing.

[Minn. Fatz]

As per usual Mr. Dancer is entirely correct. Double Up, when allowed, is the best bet in any casino, returning exactly 100%. If you pick one card from a full deck of 52 and I pick one from the remaining 51, where ties push, the odds are exactly 1:1 that my card will be higher than yours.One approach I have seen is to double up some set number of times only on certain wins, say five times on straights and flushes. This or any other double up strategy does not change the game EV, though as noted above it does increase your variance as well as, as noted above, decreasing your loss per hour on -EV games.(Edited to state odds of winning correctly, vice 2:1 in original)

[Tedlark]

  So Fatz what you are saying is that the RNG is constantly shuffling the remaining 51 cards until the player nakes their choice? If this is how the double up feature works then how would the remaining 3 cards be dealt?   Lets look at this: Dealer: 10               Player is looking at:    X      X      X      X                                 Player chooses:         X      8      X       X    Because the player chose the 2nd card available how are the cards in positions 1, 3, and 4 determined?

[Minn. Fatz]

Some math illustrating the above:You have an equal chance of selecting a card of any given rank, call it n, from 2 to A, which without loss of generality we assume is high; so let J = 11, Q = 12, K = 13 and A = 14.There are 3 cards left in the deck that push. Of the remaining 48,  (n - 2) * 4 lose for me and (14 - n) * 4 win for me. My EV, assuming no push, is:    [(14 - n) * 4 - (n - 2) * 4] / 48 = (16 - 2n) / 12 = (8 - n) / 6Since (8 - n) takes values from +6 for n = 2 to -6 for n = 14, it is clear that the sum of my EVs across all possible first draws by you is exactly 0, QED.Good Mathematics all!

[Minn. Fatz]

  So Fatz what you are saying is that the RNG is constantly shuffling the remaining 51 cards until the player nakes their choice? If this is how the double up feature works then how would the remaining 3 cards be dealt?   Lets look at this: Dealer: 10               Player is looking at:    X      X      X      X                                 Player chooses:         X      8      X       X    Because the player chose the 2nd card available how are the cards in positions 1, 3, and 4 determined?It wouldn't matter, either if the RNG was continuously shuffling and displayed the "chosen" card once the player made the choice or if the four cards available to the player were all dealt at the beginning. Assuming a random deal, you still have an even chance of winning or losing a given double-up, summing across all possible first draws.In the second case, each of the four face-down cards has the same probabilities of winning, pushing and losing against the machine's card. So choosing from any randomly selected subset of the remaining 51 cards does not change the overall probability of winning, which as noted above is 1/2.

[Tedlark]

So using my example of the dealer showing a 10, what would the player's odds of winning the double up be if none of the 4 choices they had were either a 10 or higher?


By the way; thanks for helping me understand this better, I think I may have hit the double up "Yes" maybe 10 times from 1996 to 2002.

[alpax]

alpax, we got off topic. the original statement was, he could not understand why anyone would pay a game, where they do not have an advantage. i disagree with broad generalizations and that statement is included. i can think of plenty of examples where one may play a poor return VP machine. if you and him only choose to play machines that you have an advantage, that is your privilege. but, you better be wiling to limit your play, if you in certain parts of the country, or only play when you travel to places that have the odds you want.,  many are not willing to just play unless favorable odds conditions exist or move to someplace, just so they can get the odds they seek.  some of us, just play for fun. 

I've likely steered the conversation off topic so pardon me on it. By now Mr. Dancer knows not all members reside in Vegas, and even more so most Native American casinos do not offer as much to the players since there is far less (or even none in Cherokee's case) competition than Vegas where there is a casino right around the corner. So pretty much it is an act of gloating from the way I see it, but I do not take offense since I accept the circumstance I am in.

Some people think gambling is stupid for various reasons and some people think gambling is entertaining. No recreational hobby is viewed as 100% positive anyways. VP is fun to us and seems like good amount of members play with disposable income. If planned right, VP trips offer the best value out of most hobbies out there.

Speaking of advantage play, these window of opportunity exists for one or two days a month per casino. I did a lot of analysis on the games, for high variance games, there is a chance after 1 million hands that you will be down more than half a percent more than the theorectical return. I do not think I can take 12 trips and play million hands. It would have to be at least 50 trips, but how much benefit would it take out of the overall return?

Some people like where they live, and they only like Vegas as a place to visit time to time.

[notes1]

unless i am reading your most recent response incorrectly, you are agreeing with my assertion that his blanket statement is wrong.