accuracy

[Minn. Fatz]

[QUOTE=Minn. Fatz]Hey, it's us against the house, remember? . . . Hardly.


[/QUOTE]Perhaps a little more "perspective" is in order...The casinos lay the games and make and enforce all the rules. They are The One Percent of the gaming world. We, the players, are the 99%. We are left to work out how to try to exist in the world The One Percent has created for us.Some of us, a lot of us in fact, let ourselves be bamboozled by the bright lights, clanging bells, tumbling coins, elusive dreams and rare jackpots. Some of us surrender to the inevitability of playing a losing game while trying to come up or follow along with the latest scheme offering us the promise that we might lose a little less than our neighbors.Some of us, even some who are bamboozled or who have surrendered, keep looking for some way, any way, to beat the house at its own game. We talk to each other in the hopes of learning from each other. We look up to those of our number who are beating the game. We do what we can to support them. We work and hope to be more like them ourselves. We compete with each other in a spirit of cooperation, in order to make each other better at beating the game. We do all this even though there's no hope that by doing so we will change the essential nature of the game or the rules that the house has laid and set for us.The distinction between VP and every other banked casino game is that, when the stars align, we don't need gaffs or teams or miscut decks or software bugs or Mandarin-speaking confederates to gain an advantage against the house. All the information is out there; we only need to discover it and apply it correctly.The distinction between the casino world and the real world is that in the casino world we can choose not to play the game.

[notes1]

i do not agree with the bamboozeled idea. it may be the case for some, but the majority of folks i talk to are well aware that in the long run, they are going to lose to the casino. they are trying to get the best value for their entertainment dollar. no different than going to a movie  out to a ballgame or out to dinner. casinos are entertainment and many know this. i think all visitors to the casino hope to win, but are well aware of the reality. remember, they did not build those places, by losing money. and, most players know this.   the idea that most folks are fooled, mislead or deceived in some way is BS. people know what they are doing, some are just more openly honest about it and some have no discipline to live within their budget. blaming the casino because one may lose more than they could afford is no different than blaming everyone/everything for one's own mistakes.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Minn.Fatz]Perhaps a little more "perspective" is in order...    The distinction between the casino world and the real world is that in the casino world we can choose not to play the game[/quote]I think your post is well thought out and I enjoyed reading it.  There is another distinct difference between professional and recreational video poker play.  If a professional doesn't win he doesn't eat, his wife leaves and the bank picks up his car.  If I don't win I'm down a handful of twenties.

[alpax]

[quote=Minn.Fatz]Perhaps a little more "perspective" is in order...    The distinction between the casino world and the real world is that in the casino world we can choose not to play the gameI think your post is well thought out and I enjoyed reading it.  There is another distinct difference between professional and recreational video poker play.  If a professional doesn't win he doesn't eat, his wife leaves and the bank picks up his car.  If I don't win I'm down a handful of twenties. [/QUOTE]

That is the reason Ted says to have a backup plan.

[Vman96]

My "cheap" strategy is to play max coin on a lower-denomination game, even if I give up (another) percent or so (and generally I don't) on the paytable. I've found that's usually better in EV terms than the several percent one gives up from getting like 50 coins back from an RF instead of 800. If -EV VP is the only game in town I'm not ashamed to play it for nickels.

I guess that is one small solace of a 98% state if you're willing to play nickels. Paytables are likely more bunched together between denominations. I have yet to see a game below 94.18% when betting max coins in any casino. But i haven't been to a Minnesota casino either.

[Minn. Fatz]

i do not agree with the bamboozeled idea. it may be the case for some, but the majority of folks i talk to are well aware that in the long run, they are going to lose to the casino.Actually, I hope you're right. But so many seem to be bamboozled by the negative expectation games played outside the casino world that I fear a certain proportion of people inside casinos must be in the same boat...

[misterlister]

I find the following quote from Bob Dancer curious. "Winning players understand this fallacy (we do exist despite MisterLister's insisting that we can't possibly exist. Just because he doesn't understand a phenomenon doesn't mean he's right. He's not.) Many recreational players understand it too."

Instead of clearly explaining why the casinos would constantly let him, year after year, beat their pants off and then hand him over the gifts of the kingdom afterwards, he does what a politician would do and dodge the question while inputting a ton of blabble. All I got out of his "answer" was that there are MANY like him whom the casinos have selected as their chosen ones. It would be a lot simpler if a precise explanation were forthcoming. Thank you.

[notes1]

[QUOTE=notes1]

i do not agree with the bamboozeled idea. it may be the case for some, but the majority of folks i talk to are well aware that in the long run, they are going to lose to the casino.Actually, I hope you're right. But so many seem to be bamboozled by the negative expectation games played outside the casino world that I fear a certain proportion of people inside casinos must be in the same boat...
[/QUOTE]
 i have no doubt that many will blame their lack of knowledge or being mislead for failing at 'outside the casino world', or in the casino. if everyone entering a casino were hooked up to a lie detector, and were asked if they felt the odds favored them going home with more money than they brought in, do you think most really expect to win? hope, yes. expect, no. i am sorry to break this to folks, but people lie, some lie all the time. they will lie about anything to get out of trouble, get out of a mistake they have made, they will blame their misfortune on someone or something else. 

[BobDancer]

Instead of clearly explaining why the casinos would constantly let him, year after year, beat their pants off and then hand him over the gifts of the kingdom afterwards, he does what a politician would do and dodge the question while inputting a ton of blabble. All I got out of his "answer" was that there are MANY like him whom the casinos have selected as their chosen ones. It would be a lot simpler if a precise explanation were forthcoming. Thank you.Precise explanations threaten my ability to continue to do it. Nonetheless, consider the following. It may help you understand why your "if he wins he must be eliminated, so if he isn't eliminated it must mean he's lying about winning" argument is overly simplistic:        1.   It's not casinos that restrict you. It's people within the casino. Having relationships with such people is useful. It takes time and energy to create and maintain such relationships.         2.   People have vastly different skills and interest in establishing and maintaining these relationships. Someone without such relationships often believes "everybody who can win against a casinos should be treated the same." People with such relationships realize the world doesn't work that way.         3.   The casino workers in charge of restricting players in, say,  2010 are often not the same people doing it in 2015. "Purges" happen at different rates at different places. Getting re-established is possible. Sometimes compromises are possible where the player doesn't have full participation access, but has enough to make it a worthwhile play. Negotiating such compromises is not a trivial skill.          4.    Being a writer and radio host cuts both ways. For some casinos, since I've shown in print I'm a competent player (at least), they want no part of me. (MisterLister seems to think ALL casinos should and do act this way. He's incorrect.) Other casinos recognize that I say nice things about the casinos I play at; Casinos want me to say nice things about them. On occasion I've had some harsh words about casinos that have "done me wrong." Some casinos believe that if I strongly and persuasively criticize them, it'll hurt their bottom line. I don't actively threaten casinos, but it serves my interests for casinos to believe that allowing me to play has benefits to them.          5.    Other casinos recognize that if I say I play at the South Point (for example), other players without my skills will think, "If the South Point has good enough games for Bob Dancer, surely it has good enough games for me too." To the extent that happens (and it does, although it's not directly measurable), a casino can profitably allow me to play even if they lose money on my individual play.               6,  The owner of the South Point, Michael Gaughan, believes (probably correctly), that having me teach classes there brings in people who would not otherwise frequent his casino. Most play some on the day they go to classes. He knows that I'll talk about the South Point promotions during my classes. He finds that a reasonable advertising expense that probably pays for itself.                Mr. Gaughan also believes my classes create more enthusiasm for playing than they disseminate knowledge people remember. It's not that I'm holding back information in my classes. It's just that to become a successful player you need to work VERY HARD and most of the people who show up at my classes aren't willing or able to do that.  They still learn something though. If their "gambling budget" was to lose $100 a month, for example, after classes it will take them twice as long to lose that much money. The casino doesn't suffer from this and the players get real value.           7. In any given year, I'm a winner some places and a loser other places. It's a small margin I'm operating on (although generally larger than the 0.1% someone quoted in one of these threads recently) with considerable variance. The casinos I was successful at in 2015 are not the same as the ones I was successful at in 2014 or 2013. No casino knows my overall numbers. I don't publish those. If I run for public office (don't hold your breath), possibly I've have to publish my tax returns. Until then, I don't.            8.   Sometimes I win in "special categories." In the past five years, for example, I've won more than $250K in casino drawings at a wide variety of places (plus two cars), in six different states. Sometimes casinos don't count that in a player's win/loss total because they have already budgeted those promotional expenses and for the most part don't care which player receives them. But I count that money the same as if it was won at a machine. Choosing which drawings to enter and how many tickets to earn is every bit as much a part of advantage play as to knowing which machine to play and how to play the hands correctly. Being too smart to "win every week" at the drawings is a lesson not everybody has learned.           9. Each successful player has his own arsenal of techniques. Most aren't writers, for example, but there are many other techniques as well. Figuring out those techniques is part of what you have to do if you are going to succeed. Expecting others to create a roadmap for you won't likely work for you because you don't have the same skills and tools that they have. Having LeBron James write a book accurately describing how he does what he does wouldn't allow me to dunk a basketball! However good a teacher he is, he's not good enough to get this 68-year-old that far off the ground! (Fifty years ago I could touch the rim with my fingertips. That's as good as it ever got for me dunkwise.)             There are several other techniques that I don't wish to share. It's a LOT more complicated than "if the player wins, he's out. Period." Perhaps you now have at least a glimpse now into this process than you did ten minutes ago.               For what it's worth, my next ten week semester of free video poker classes will begin at the South Point on Wednesday September 16. If  you're in town on Wednesdays, I promise you'll learn something. The full schedule may be found at www.bobdancer.com/seminars

[misterlister]

So because you have friends at certain casinos, they allow you to take money from them. Because you may be bringing in some players who lose some, they allow you to win some. If you say nice things about them, they will let you beat them out of money. Then you say that there are other things you do not wish to share, along with pushing your SP class in order, I assume, that enough people show up so they will continue to pay you.

Do you realize how weak all this is?

I'm not a big player, but I've been seriously restricted by the Palms for having too much good luck in the place.

Bottom line is sir, no casino is going to allow money to go south because they know you, because you might be bringing in other players who might be losing, because you say nice things about them, or because of other reasons that so conveniently remain a mystery. How about you produce a copy of your last 5 years tax returns for public review? You've gone years it seems without anyone asking for proof when all you've said is "I win all the time and a lot". Here's your opportunity to make believers out of the lot of us.

I don't believe anyone wins all the time or a lot by playing video poker. It's not a game that can be continuously beaten without a huge amount of luck, and you always say you possess more skill than luck and you'd rather be skillful than lucky.