does the math matter?

[Tedlark]

I have though, come out ahead each of the past seven years.

You claim to have made a profit playing video poker in each of the past seven years by walking out ahead. Fair enough.

I have a legitimate question. How do you determine how much of a win or a loss will cause you to walk out?

It depends on just when I'll walk out when I am ahead. Sometimes it just depends on my mood. If I feel that the machine may still be good to me I will play a bit longer. I don't get greedy; that's how you lose control and start second guessing yourself. If I am playing in Las Vegas, I will walk out knowing that I will be able to play again later at my convenience. I posted here once of driving to St. Louis and back on a Saturday, the session lasted about 45 minutes and in that period I got up $500.00. I made $50.00 an hour for the 10 hour drive and plus, I wasn't doing anything else that day anyway. Sure, I could have stayed and played. Who knows, I may have left a royal behind but I didn't care. That $500.00 was 1 1/2 car payments.

When losing, I won't walk out of a casino with just lint in my pockets. I played like that for many years before I got better disciplined and I can spot those players in casinos now. I have gone on tilt and hit an atm but that isn't too often. Last year it worked to my benefit when I lost my grubstake at Harrah's Joliet, left and hit an atm, went into Hollywood Joliet and within 10 minutes hit a 10k jackpot. That was a rarity and I don't think that will happen again each time I walk into a casino.

So, if I walk out after hitting a royal how will I know if there was another one coming soon? I don't care. I left happy and that's all that matters to me. Video poker is one long session and things have a way of balancing out.

To add: Many years ago there was an old time Chicago politician who had a saying when discussing payoffs and it went like this: "pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered."

[FloridaPhil]

Many years ago there was an old time Chicago politician who had a saying when discussing payoffs and it went like this: "pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered."

Thanks for the response.

I like your strategy. It's actually somewhat similar to my own. When I say I set low cash out limits, it's the same as you walking out as long as I don't play those tickets. I don't claim to make a profit every year. I do enjoy my time at the casino a lot cheaper than most of the players I know. I believe playing until you either hit it big or you go broke is the cause of more losses than playing bad games.

[billryan]

i am not offended by your 'bluntness'. you have every right to defend your declarations.

i started this topic for a couple of reasons. first, because you have posted, over the years, many times about consistently winning. while playing negative games, your results fly in the face of the math. but,
i also wanted to see the reactions of those who DO live and die by the math and berate anyone who does not abide by their beliefs. and, here you come, popular with many of the posters, but posting your multi year year winning results, that contradicts what they espouse. i hope everyone has noticed the many so called 'math experts', who have been conspicuously absent and did not comment. in the future, pay them no heed.

as to my my beliefs (for what little it matters), i question almost everything i read on the internet.

You do realize that's not how math works, right? I'm not so sure after a few of your recent post.

[Chicagoan]

I cannot believe everyone is making such a big deal out of one player's results. I have never questioned that TedLark is exactly like the rest of us who do not have regular access to the better paytables of Vegas. He plays a lot, wins sometimes, and shares his winning hands with us. That is exactly what I do also. I had a nice streak last year and I shared photos of my better winning hands. None of us, not me and not TedLark, are foolish enough to believe we can beat the casino over time with the paytables we are stuck with. If I move to Vegas it might be different.....

[notes1]

You do realize that's not how math works, right? I'm not so sure after a few of your recent post.

have never held myself out as a math expert. please explain your comment.

[notes1]

i don't know if i would label the discussion a 'big deal'. but, when someone plays frequently, plays negative games and manages to beat the casino, for at least the last 7 years, i am certainly interested. sorry, if the topic bores you.

if this were an investment web site and the averages were down 2-3%/per year, for the last 7 consecutive years, and someone stated they were beating the averages, there would be plenty of curiosity as to how they were doing it.

are you net positive for the last 7 years? if so, i would be interested how you did it.

[billryan]

Am I net positive from video poker? That depends on how you define things. Much of my game relies on exploiting casinos. Am I ahead? Yes. Have I taken more coin out than I've put coin in? No.

[BobDancer]

Am I ahead? Yes. Have I taken more coin out than I've put coin in? No.

That would describe my results as well.

Even then, it's hard to come up with one precise number. I, for example, do not include the value of meals, hotel rooms, and casino gifts other than cash or free play. These have real value and sometimes they affect my decision as to whether to play a particular game at a particular casino or not, but in my records I count them as being worth zero. If I get cash back or free play or collect money in a tournament or drawing, I definitely do include that in my records.

If somebody ended up behind $1,000, but ate $2,000 worth of free food, stayed in free hotel room for x number of nights, and collected several hundred dollars worth of gift cards along with other casino gifts that I call "casino crap," I would have no problem with that person calling himself a winner at video poker (even though I personally would count that as a losing year for me.) There's no unique way to define these things.

I understand that the lack of "one way to do it" is frustrating to some people, but that's life and you're not going to be able to get millions of players to all record their records in the same way.

[notes1]

Am I net positive from video poker? That depends on how you define things. Much of my game relies on exploiting casinos. Am I ahead? Yes. Have I taken more coin out than I've put coin in? No.

my questions were directed at chicago, not you.

you did not explain your previous post about my understanding of the math being faulty.

[notes1]

as often happens on these threads, comments get distorted.

i have NO problem with anyone placing a value on free air/food/rooms. as a matter of fact, i believe someone who wins cash or a car, should really count the sale value of that item in their net results. cheap gifts, are another matter. the value should be fair and stated when declaring one's results.

but, this thread was started because of a declaration that a player was NET positive, after 7 years of playing mainly negative games, with NO mention of other benefits being counted.

i plat at tampa, bad paytables. but, one can use their comp dollars to buy discounted cigs. this has real value, even if one buys them for someone else and collects a fair amount of cash in return.