hot /cold machines

[rascal]

There is no huge secret to a casino's edge: it is built into their basic business model. It is predicted on the outcome of hundreds of machines being played by hundreds of people over hundreds of hours. There is tremendous individual variance possible within that model, but the collective average varies to an amazingly small degree from one year to the next. The laws of averages are simple, to the point where it bewilders me that people argue about them. The more decisions you make, the closer you will come to the casino's projected average. The fewer decisions you make, the greater your variance will be in comparison to the casino's projected average. The only people I know of who have been verifiably successful at video poker fall into three categories:
 
1. Someone who plays a few hours several times a year and has been just plain lucky. The averages have not yet caught up with this lucky man/woman.
 
2. Someone who plays regularly but had a huge hit on a highly volatile game at a high denom and despite playing regularly the casino's edge has not yet eaten away his/her positive cash balance. Eventually this person's ongoing negative return will catch up if he/she continues to play regularly.
 
3. Someone who plays regularly, minimizes his operating losses via exceptionally strong play and good pay tables; and by chasing promotions/comps he/she manages to generate a meager VP profit that is probably less per hour than he/she could make at McDonald's.
 
The hard truth is that there is no *serious* long term money to be made at video poker!
 
Yes, you can minimize your losses or even turn a very small profit, but you will never, never, never get rich at this game. If "Bob Dancer" could get rich playing video poker, why would he waste his time and accept the frustration and the very hard work of writing a column, teaching classes, and selling other VP products? He wouldn't...he would just play video poker.
 
If you enjoy having fun and can inject enough intelligence and discipline into the game to stick to "fair" paytables and thus minimize your losses, you are already ahead of the pack. If you can grind out a very minimal profit by chasing tables and comps and are willing to do so, then you are ahead of 99.9% of everyone else, although that's a hell of a life to live.
 
It is no secret on this board that my SO is relatively high in the pecking order at one of the larger casinos, this casino being part of a successful corporation that for the most part has returned healthy quarterly dividends to stockholders.  They are in business to make money, not to lose money. And definitely not to give money away. They sell entertainment, not Benjamins.
 
The business model of a casino is, quite simply, that ANYONE can win short term and please do and please brag to your friends and neighbors and forum buddies! NO ONE can win long term and please do not!

[Eduardo]

rolan, you have just shown again your lack of knowledge about mathematics. Randomness and math are entirely related. You just need to take your math knowledge above the level of addition, subtraction, and mythology and get into things like statistics and probabilities. Then you might begin to understand what shadowman is talking about instead of criticising him out of your own lack of knowledge.

[royal flush]

very well put vp has played itself out just as 21 counting cards as i did poker is not like 4 or 5 years ago when chris moneymaker won the "main event" with 4,5 off suit showing the general public that anyone can get rich in poker which made advantage players have a big edge. the reality of vp today is most paytables are below 100% percent and the ones above are only slightly as like 25c fpdw. but the main point is for retirees can enjoy a game break about even as they are playing slightly below perfect play and get some nice comps buffetts movies and stay out of the las vegas heat

[faygo]

[QUOTE=optimalf]
If you do, then you might want a different method.  My purpose was to show that there are alternative methods.. 

 
Well, I'm sorry, but you haven't "shown" any alternate methods.  Not one!  You've just said that there are some.   [/QUOTE]
 
cd you are absolutely correct. How many folks have talked about alternative methods  to AP play but have not , to date, published even one play within that alternative method.  Kinda making my b*** tired of reading about them. To quote Clara " Where is the beef?"

[cddenver]

rolan, you have just shown again your lack of knowledge about mathematics. Randomness and math are entirely related.

 
"That darn shadowman" has pointed out on at least one occasion that purveyors of non-conventional strategies come up with theories of unrandomness relating to VP to package with the strategies.  Knowing that their strategy fails when tested in simulations, unrandomness that can be taken advantage of during play is added to the patter for no reason other than to prop up the strategy to make it look like a winner.  Smoke and mirrors stuff.  That seems to be what optimalf is heading towards in his posts, and why he's hesitant to provide information that can be tested in a PC model.

[Eduardo]

Smoke and mirrors? Well we already know about the mirrors so we just need to find out what substance is being smoked.

[royal flush]

maybe check out the theory that the speed that the rat runs around the wheel inside the machine dictates when the machine gets hot

[faygo]

Smoke and mirrors? Well we already know about the mirrors so we just need to find out what substance is being smoked.
 
No, you don't suppose, could it be true?
 

[royal flush]

makes about as much sence as changing denominations machine or other nonsence i see posted on this site

[BOOPSAHOY]

[QUOTE=Eduardo]Smoke and mirrors? Well we already know about the mirrors so we just need to find out what substance is being smoked.
 
No, you don't suppose, could it be true?
 
[/QUOTE]
 
Ah Faygo! I so love Cheech and Chong!