Martiandale Clone

[olds442jetaway]

Thank you so much OTB. That is what is important. Heading home. This isn’t important, but it perked me up a bit. DDS. Bonus Deuces Wild.

[FAA]

Quads I hit, no deuces. You would have been jumping for joy on JOB. 12 in 2 hours or ~1,400 hands.
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Absolutely. I lean into BP now. Five (including SF) in three hours on Saturday was only good enough for a break even trip. They came on schedule. But only the SF and one quad were premium quality. If I am overquaded early, I should call it a day. The bad luck is imminent.

[olds442jetaway]

I have found the same thing over the years. The super knowledgeable RNG folks will say it doesn’t matter as this is a short term event. My lifetime estimate of sessions played is 3,000. Which is 120 sessions a year for 25 years. Sometimes, I will hit 3 or even 4 quads an hour for 2 maybe at most 3 hours tops. In 3,000 sessions, not once have I ever had that pattern continue. On the other hand, anytime I as you say stay and play after a hot early session 95 if not 99 percent of the time I will give back all winnings and many times even bust bankroll.

[BobDancer]

Olds seems to be the chief proponent of the Martingale Clone strategy. While he regularly posts pictures of his successes, for which he gets lots of folks here to congratulate him, he frequently reminds us that this doesn't change the overall return of the game. He ends up losing much of the time, and in the end is a considerable overall loser, in spite of all the pretty pictures he posts.

I call this a responsible way of talking about his methodology, and I commend him for this. You never hear him say that he got lucky on his biggest bet and using his methodology can lead to riches for you too. I find this refreshingly different from previous posters who wrote about a somewhat-similar methodology.

What Olds' methods do is increase the variance compared to betting the same amount each time. This makes the games more exciting. People are willing to pay for excitement. A lot of people prefer DDB and even TDB over JoB even when JoB has a higher return, simply because the excitement level. They find JoB too boring. That's fine. players differ in what they prefer.

Please note that Olds is playing on machines that allow you to have the same pay schedule for any bet between 5 and 50 coins. Most players do not play where these machines are available. Your choices are moving up in stakes --- which are bigger jumps, with a lot less flexability.

Also note that Olds is playing for a bet that gives him full value for the royal. This is not the same as betting between 1 and 4 coins which gives you, generally 250 for 1 for the royal rather than 800 for 1.

Also note that apparently he has a more sizeable bankroll than many here. If you can barely afford a quarter single line game (or not even that), you certainly can afford to play for more than 5 quarters when your strategy calls for it.

Finally, note that he's not playing terrible games. The pictures he posts are from games playing 98.9% and higher. I don't know what the slot club, mailers, and other promotions are in effect at the casinos where he's playing, but this ensures he loses at a moderate pace overall. With swings.

Overall, it appears he is playing at a rate where he enjoys what he is doing and is able to afford his inevitable losses. Which is great! It's his money and he can spend it how he likes. Enjoying gambling without getting into financial trouble is an admirable accomplishment.

It's a very different approach from what I use, where if i don't have the advantage I don't play, but he's using it with eyes wide open, seems to be enjoying himself, and doesn't tell others to "do what I do because it WORKS!"

I have nothing but praise for how he is conducting himself.

[Jstark]

Good post Bob. I have yet to see anyone criticize his play. Even though I may post pictures of winning hands on terrible games that I'll play occasionally, I certainly don't sit for hours on end on them. And considering that I play mostly with large edges on casino games (not just video poker), I most certainly can afford "comping the casino" as I call it, by playing those lousy games once in a while.

[FAA]

I may post pictures of winning hands on terrible games that I'll play occasionally, I certainly don't sit for hours on end on them.
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Yes, this is the key, even on decent games with a half percent house edge. Don't sit. Quit. You're going to leave a loser otherwise. That's just how it is.

[olds442jetaway]

That is a very nice and straightforward post Bob and I apreciate it. I will try and continue to post like one of my all time favorite movies.... The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly. I have been more than extremely lucky so far for 2021. I am net positive so far and as we all know, it is very early in the year yet.
There is no way I could play the Martingale Clone without the ability to move up and down with such flexibility in betting amounts within the same machine. Many years ago, the original quarter machines for a video poker allowed bets up to 80 units. I enjoyed those for a short time but they were yanked away. Some of the promotions that Mohegan sun has are quite helpful for Ascend and Soar level players. In particular, when you start with a 99.54 game, and add in about .3 percent of coin in average free play, you can get very close to even long term. On triple status point days for me, it is pretty easy to meet my achievement goal for the day that gives me another 100 bucks in free play. They also do not seem to have a problem with husband and wife teams sharing or playing on one card. That is helpful too. When it comes time for a hand pay, whoever was playing the machine and hit deal gets the W-2G. When a Jackpot appears. I have also complemented them on their protocols for safety with Covid percautions. I hope that continues. If I count a few other things they throw in like perk points I can use for gas and other cash promotions, as long as I use perfect strategy, I think can play them about even long term going forward. Old saying in gambling. Play with your head and not over it. So true.

[olds442jetaway]

Personally, I belive many casinos do not want patrons to have the ability to bet more than 5 coins on a machine and I think they are afraid of any Martingale or Martingale Clone method. Otherwise, why not have all machines with a bet 100 coin maximum or so? The programing to do this is no big deal. If in fact what we are all led to believe is true, and that is more coin in means greater profits for the casino, then what are they afraid of. Why even would Mohegan Sun a year or so after opening, change their max coin in from 80 to 25 and some cases 5? Why did they pull even a 2 cent poker machine with a 95 percent paytable that allowed bets of up to 2 bucks? To me, there can be no other reasonable explanation. If anyone has a better explanation, I would love to hear it.
Casinos get upset and cry when their total handle drops. One would thnk this flexibility of being to bet more without changing to another machine is something the casino would welcome. I also suspect the casinos worry about things such as triple play, 5 play, ten play etc. WHY??? Wouldn’t they make more money long term on me if I was betting 1.25 x 3, 5, or 10? I have bever seen one of these machines with a 99 percent paytable yet. They are always lower than a single line game. To me, the scenarios above say it all. They are afraid of a patron being able to ride the sine curve near the top and bail out even though long term EV below 100 percent would indicate the more money bet, the more money they make. Anyway, that’s my take on it. Other ideas welcome.

[FAA]

Harrah's does allow the ability to switch to two dollar level, which may help after being vanquished on dollar play. I do think that if I get three quads in the first hour that it's time to call it a day.

[wildman49]

Personally, I belive many casinos do not want patrons to have the ability to bet more than 5 coins on a machine and I think they are afraid of any Martingale or Martingale Clone method. Otherwise, why not have all machines with a bet 100 coin maximum or so? The programing to do this is no big deal. If in fact what we are all led to believe is true, and that is more coin in means greater profits for the casino, then what are they afraid of. Why even would Mohegan Sun a year or so after opening, change their max coin in from 80 to 25 and some cases 5?

Olds I wonder that myself for years. We have machines that on JOB you can only play 5 coins but all other games on the machine you can bet 10. Another bank of machines you can bet 10 coins on JOB but all other games you can bet 20 coins on the same machine. WHY is this? As you said the higher we bet the more the casino makes so why not 100 coin machines?