Double up or not

[alpax]

alpax, you do seem to admire this guy in vegas. you describe his 'self driven aspect as impressive'. do you know there are about 20 million small businesses in america, who are all self driven. most of these folks took a risk, wake up everyday and grind it out, trying to earn a living. many have no free health insurance, no paid vacation/sick time and must build there own retirement. and, they are ready to work, 24/7. the vp expert is no different than them. i have no way of knowing, but do not be surprised if these days, the majority of his income comes from other places than playing the machines.

I was vague on mentioning that part, I've meant to make a general statement about the people who do not want to work under the terms of other people acting out as their boss and making their bosses more wealthier than they are compensated for, being undeterred from the risks of failing and the willingness to do whatever it takes to succeed is impressive but can be shady (people stealing ideas from people or hiding things from them). Some of those folks do try, but for various reasons may not be successful. I am one of those people who cannot help to be initially in awe of those who are rewarded with a golden parachute. But over time, I've learned a bunch of people get the short end of one person's path to wealth.

I am aware of the character flaws that are pointed out on these forums as well as from certain individuals on VPFree. I try to understand Bob's insights on video poker even when controversy may be brought up.

Seriously, does anyone believe Bob Dancer would be teaching classes if he can make millions playing video poker? I have absolutely nothing against the man personally. He is a salesman and damn good at his craft. His strategies are well thought out and he obviously believes in himself and his talents. Your results may not be the same. Frankly I don't care if he makes billions, but I do have a problem with the idea that anyone can duplicate his results if they follow his lifestyle.

I've never believed he makes several million dollars annually, the small fraction of an edge he plays with does not add up that fast so he has other things to market himself and supplement his income. I would think tens of thousands a year is more than enough to get by in Vegas. He does not have to share every one of his secrets. I did analysis on many trials of 50,000 hands on video poker on Video Poker for winners, I do not plan to play as nearly as much as Bob, so I know I will not see expected results. I think that is the most misleading part is that you have to be in it for a very long run for the Bob's plans (some known and some unknown) to bear fruit.


Edited to add: However, reducing losses to a minimum is entirely possible with Bob's secrets/theories.

[FloridaPhil]

If you successfully market yourself as a video poker expert to sell books software consulting and training, that's your actual business regardless of whether you make money playing the game. Frankly, I don't think it matters if he nets a profit from the game as long as players believe they can by purchasing his products and following his strategies.  Personally, I don't think anyone is making a bunch of money playing video poker.
 Sure you can get lucky for a while, but eventually your time will come.  Even if you win long term, the personal price you pay for living that lifestyle will take it's toll.On the other hand, Bob Dancer uncovered a lot of useful information that we can use to our advantage.  My wife and I go on great vacations for very little cost because of his strategies and training software.  We are grateful but kind of sad at the same time.  Being a professional gambler is not something anyone should aspire to.

[notes1]

alpax, not even sure how to respond. i can only assume you have had some bad experiences at your job(s) or you have read/heard some stories that bother you. i can only tell you, that if one has a bad boss, make your case to the boss's superiors or go somewhere else. that is one reason people start their own business.  most who start a business are not 'shady'. they want to control their own destiny, instead of relying on the generosity of someone else. they take a risk and sometimes they fail. there are millions of folks like this. if one has a great idea and does not do anything with it, do not be surprised or upset, if someone else does. if someone wants to 'play it safe' and not take risks, our capitalistic society does not reward them. the number of folks who have a golden parachute is extremely limited. and, some people just do not want to 'get by', and that is about all one will do, with tens of thousands.

[alpax]

The observation are spot on, my thinking/perspectives about self-employed people is slightly influenced by the experiences that I went through (also heard from others what they have been through). The era when loyalty and respect were a two way street between the employers and the employees is a thing of the past. The recession has only compounded things even worse for many people, the job market obviously hit the fan and granted these business operators more power to say the least. The growth of small businesses has stimulated from it, even with the risks behind them.

The depression that stemmed from it has unfortunately led to poor decisions with gambling not too long ago. I resolved these habits, but problem gambling does come with its share of hurt. Video poker is something I can manage to enjoy for fun and entertainment at a great value.

Though I will not seek Bob's strategy to avoid having to work for an employer, like others I do see there is more to it than just playing video poker machines. Bargaining hard with casino hosts and selling off gifts/comped alcoholic beverages is also part of the strategy, as mentioned in one of the books. I still believe the strategy can work, but it would require a tremendous amount of dedication for the results to swing in the players favor.

[Minn. Fatz]

  So using my example of the dealer showing a 10, what would the player's odds of winning the double up be if none of the 4 choices they had were either a 10 or higher? “On further review” my earlier attempt to show VP double up has a 100 percent return was somewhat off. You mentioned the case where the dealer’s card was a 10 and the player could choose between any one of four cards (which we assumed were selected randomly from the remainder of the deck), but none of those cards was higher than a 9. I then pointed to the case where the dealer’s card was still a 10, but all of the player’s cards were higher than a 10. While correct, that’s not the best illustration. The point is that it is equally probable that the dealer’s card will be a 6 and all of the player’s cards will be 7 or higher. This case obviously has an EV of 1. Further, it exactly cancels out the EV of -1 from the case you mentioned. In fact, if we use the notation {8 - x, i, j} to represent the case where the dealer’s card is (8 - x) and there are i higher cards and j lower ones in the cards the player has to choose from, then we can show that the case {8 + x, j, i} is equally probable and that the EVs of these two cases sum to zero. It then suffices to show that for any possible case {8 - x, i, j} there is a case {8 + x, j, i} that is equally probable and that the EVs of the two cases sum to zero; ergo, the EV of the overall game is also zero. Note that this result can be extended to any number of player’s cards from 1 to 51, and indeed to any deck size as long as there are an equal number of cards in each rank. What might be throwing us off here, again assuming we’re right about the random nature of VP double up, is the definite non-random nature of similar games in the slot machine world. For instance take the bonus feature in Dean Martin’s Wild Party (one of my inexcusable weaknesses) where the player “chooses” a slot symbol from a number of hidden options. My assumption is that, whichever icon the player picks, the machine has already decided what symbol will turn up, based on some RNG output. That leads us, mistakenly imo, into the similar belief that the VP machine decided whether we will win or lose the double up (again based on RNG) as soon as we choose the double up option. Since VP and any other machine-based game incorporating card and/or dice symbols is supposed to operate exactly as if it were “hand-dealt” however, I think we’re correct in assuming randomness for the VP double up feature, as we do (well, as most of us do) for VP in general.

[case]

It is all random and double up remains a 50/50 prop no mater how you look at it.

At the Plaza in Las Vegas it is available on every vp game in the house.

Deburglar:
You stated double up is rigged and payback is like 33%.
Are you telling me for those many years you actually took time to write down in a book the results from each double up hand to record the results as they happened? I find this hard to believe. How could one actually enjoy playing VP recording each hand for years on end. These games are regulated and the double up feature is checked as well as the VP payback.

You always believe everything in a casino is fixed. Why do you play? And yes some people do win.

[DaBurglar]

  DaBurglar if you read my post to Bob Dancer I for one do not think that the double up feature is a good thing.    I doubt the validity of it being a 50-50 proposition and if it is less than 50-50 then the odds go up in favor of the house.   So you state that the double up feature is a "GOOD THING" but yet you say your success rate is well below that of 50-50? Confusing.I do not understand why you are unable to correctly interpret or even read my posts......I clearly state that....If.....IF   the double up feature(s) rife on all video poker games in all casinos everywhere are legit and on the up and up, meaning there is NOTHING going on with the working of the program other than five random cards are being drawn EACH time and one of the 5 cards is randomly assigned to the dealer and the other four to the player, then YES it is a good thing for the player because then it is just as Bob Dancer and everyone else is saying, that the bet is essentially a 50-50 propostion which entails a %100 % return to the player OVER THE LONG HAUL.BUT.....I elaborated that, in so far as I kept detailed records back in the day when I played exclusively in Nevada casinos, I found that the double up feature did not deliver to ME PERSONALLY 50-50 results.      I leave it to everyone's individual opinion as to whether I was just (again) horribly unlucky in the period in question in which I detailed receiving only about a 1/3 success rate......I have found that even with recent instances where I indulge in hitting the double up function I am not anywhere near 50-50 (last week in AC I think I hit the double up about 25 times or so during and distinctly recall winning maybe 5 of those times, and one stretch saw me lose 7 in a row, but I only rarely use or try double up these days.......and prior to AC, when In Vegas last week the handful of times I hit double up again saw me lose more than half, but I do not have detail records of those sessions since I no longer bother.)I just have a difficult time believing the casinos would leave a clearly advantageous option out there for so many players on so many machines that works in the way we expect (50 -50)......I have no proof other than my own abysmal records, along with input from friends who play, none of whom I ever recall reporting any huge success or even modest success using the double up......again perception (being what it is) seems to say that it is NOT the 50-50 bet we theorize it represents or should be.....it works out to something  LESS than that.

[DaBurglar]

Deburglar:
You stated double up is rigged and payback is like 33%.
Are you telling me for those many years you actually took time to write down in a book the results from each double up hand to record the results as they happened? I find this hard to believe. How could one actually enjoy playing VP recording each hand for years on end. These games are regulated and the double up feature is checked as well as the VP payback.

You always believe everything in a casino is fixed. Why do you play? And yes some people do win.I stated that MY OWN personal results and opinion, of which I shared a specific DETAILED period of time during which I happened to collect specific detailed records......and my own PERSONAL conclusion (as well as results) was that the alleged 50-50 payout/return  did not (or does not) manifest itself in actual results.      I never said, nor meant to say, flatout that the double up feature on all VP machines in ALL casinos is rigged, and only the specific period I detailed back in 2003 was my payback 33%......I do not know what my EXACT, PRECISE lifetime payback is on every double up I ever did, but I can definitely say it is NOT close to 50-50 I am sorry if you find it difficult to believe I kept detailed records for many years when I played VP in Vegas and Reno, but I actually explained all this several times in previous posts which you clearly did not read....therefore for your benefit, I will BRIEFLY give you a clue as to how I did this and what exactly it entailed:      From 1992 through 2007 or so, almost ALL my casino and Video Poker play was in Nevada (Vegas & Reno), and starting around 1995 or so, when I first became serious about playing video poker the mathematically correct way, I established for myself a routine whereby I emphasized QUALITY of play over quantity.......every time I went to a casino and played video poker I did indeed keep fairly detailed records of my play.   This was NOT at all as difficult or even as cumbersome as someone like you might think, so let me share a few things you probably did not consider:1)   I played at a slow constant rate that allowed me to make simple, quick notes in a notepad, which often before I played I would prepare (format) the notepad in such a way to make sure the info I wanted to collect was easily jotted down.....after the sessions, usually when I went home, I would organize the shorthand data from my notepad into a spreadsheet (remember Lotus 123?)2)  If you recall, during the mid 1990s when i first started out, most VP machines were still coin operated, so it was not like the process of playing is even close to today's standard where people play lightning fast with buttons flying all over the place......when is started out, thru the first 4-1/2 to 5 years as TITO slowly became the standard, it was not any big deal to incorporate a simple step of jotting down the most basic info or notation to record a hand result and then resume putting coins in for the next hand.   AND please note, I did not record EVERY SINGLE hand result including every dud or losing hand.    It was necessary only to record the winners (winning hands), and then I could extrapolate TOTAL hands played from both my money/bankroll info and by first requesting such info from a host (up until 1999 or 2000), and then after 2000 I could figure it out myself by looking at points earned and knowing what the coin in ratio was, figure out my total hands played.    In fact, when TITO became the norm, it only made my task of recording info easier and I could, if desired, play a little faster with more hands played, but often I did not, since, when all else failed regarding either getting a host to help me or extrapolating info from coin in versus points earned, by playing a set number of hands per hour I could always know pretty close how many hands I played in total.3)   Double up was something I only sporadically kept DETAILED info and records about, which is why I only shared the one period above in my original post.....if I had additional DETAILED data from other periods I would have shared that too.......in fact, that one period I outlined between 2002 and 2003 was when I was, among other things, SPECIFICALLY examining and contemplating the double up function in and of itself.   Now that I have had more time to think about it, the only reason I would bother even keeping track of things like WHAT cards allowed me to even have a chance to win, etc etc was so that I could evaluate the actual game play and function itself.   No doubt back then i most likely had my doubts as to the validity of the double up function being all that it was cracked up to be, but back then I was no where near the cynic or cautious bear when it came to Video Poker in general.    Finally,  I DO NOT ALWAYS BELIEVE EVERYTHING IN A CASINO IS FIXED....you are projecting what you WANT to believe I am saying for your own subconscious reasons.......of course I realize "some people do win"....that is a pointless statement which proves nothing either way in favor of, or against casinos being "unfairly rigged";      It is understood that even if a specific game like video poker, or a specific part of a game like the DOUBLE UP function being addressed, or a entire CASINO in GENERAL, is somehow operating in a unlawful or unfair manner, there will be SOME people who still win in order to keep up the subterfuge and image that things are legit.    Do you follow?    IF EVERYONE LOSE EVERYTIME, then neither a specific GAME nor a specific casino showing such results would last more than a day or two!     But the bottom line is, as I have said many times before, I tend to still BELIEVE in most casinos and most games as being fair-legit-as advertised  etc etc, but I am extremely cautious and open to the many possibilities of potential unscrupulous, unfair, unlawful  and/or  UNFORESEEN scenarios in a business that involves so much money and so many people in so many states and countries.......the human factor alone (for error and weakness, not to mention ill will or intent) dictates a healthy skepticism be employed every now and then.......

[EDC1977]

I understand Bob Dancers reasoning in his recent post on LVA regarding the double up feature. My personal results are less than 50% thus, I feel the house has the edge on this feature although stats may say otherwise. Personal opinion. Do not take this as gospel.

[DaBurglar]

I understand Bob Dancers reasoning in his recent post on LVA regarding the double up feature. My personal results are less than 50% thus, I feel the house has the edge on this feature although stats may say otherwise. Personal opinion. Do not take this as gospel.thanks ED da cat ..... your personal reporting of what you believe and perceive your lifetime results to be is exactly what my other friends and associates have also said to me.....no one, anywhere in all my 20 plus years playing in casinos and enjoying video poker has ever said to me they do well using the double up.......in fact no one has reported doing "so so" which is exactly what you can and should expect some of them to say, (again)  IF.......IF  double up feature/option on your typical video poker game works in the manner and way we think and expect it does!!!    We should expect a healthy share of people to say "Yes, you know, most of the time I do ok using the double up."      But alas, that is not reality, hence the supposition that there is something, SOMETHING, some little nuance or weighted aspect of the game which allows the house (dealer) a advantage to tip the balance more in the line of 55-45 or even 60-40.      That would be consistent with what I believe my actual lifetime results reflect.I mean, seriously, thinking back to just the most recent last few months (say since January of this year), I recall seeing in the dealer's cards a disproportionate number of ACES, which seemed to imply there is some type of weighted functionality in favor of the dealer's card in the long term reconciliation of the game.THE ONLY way to start confirming or drawing some type of BONARFIDE conclusion is to simply have everyone start keeping the detailed records I briefly did back in 2002-2003.......OR if someone somewhere somehow can come up with a way to just PLAY the double up game/option (in the exact way it is reconciled using the IGT software)  over and over and record the results.......