Understanding casino math

[FAA]

Amen. I bring discretionary money and never dream of ATM use. But I still would like to return home with at least the discretionary money. Dollar machine is time efficient in piling up credits, but illogical when in Iceberg mode. Bang out quarters and stay positive.

[djc32]

unless one is playing non stop, on the same machine over an extended duration, one's actual results, may well be very different than the expected results. 


Aren't ones expected results based on the numbers of hands played by the player + error rate + the pay table, regardless if you play the same machine or constantly switch machines?

[notes1]

This is definitely true. If you don't get a quad deuce or a royal in a day's play, you could be in for a bad day. It's not as bad as DDB when you don't see a quad (been there), but it can ding your bankroll a bit.
This is primarily why we play quarters.
Preach, Phil, preach!! Wayward apostle must return to fold asap!
   maybe you can direct me to any post i ever made about playing dolars. have been playing on a regular basis since around 2006, and never played a bet above $1.25. one should also remember that every player is not in the exact financial situation as everyone else. to some folks, losing a grand is nothing, others it may be unacceptible. there are other ways to limit one's losses, including reducing their time in the casino. 

[notes1]

[QUOTE=notes1]

unless one is playing non stop, on the same machine over an extended duration, one's actual results, may well be very different than the expected results. 


Aren't ones expected results based on the numbers of hands played by the player + error rate + the pay table, regardless if you play the same machine or constantly switch machines?

[/QUOTE]
 i am not a math person, but i am confident that is exactly what they would state and i believe that to be largely accurate. and, i would expect blowback to any suggestion that anything else is possible. i just happen to believe that the limited time that many VP players spend on any single machine or series of machines, could result in actual results being different than expected results. and, of course, luck, is a huge factor. being at the right machine or hitting the button at the right time, is a factor.  i was told by someone in the casino business, that it typically takes 400k spins to 'cycle' a machine. do not know if that refers to all machines or slots only.

[FAA]

This is definitely
true. If you don't get a quad deuce or a royal in a day's play, you
could be in for a bad day. It's not as bad as DDB when you don't see a
quad (been there), but it can ding your bankroll a bit.
This is primarily why we play quarters.
Preach, Phil, preach!! Wayward apostle must return to fold asap!
 maybe you can direct me to any post i ever made about playing dolars.Okay, I was just replying to Phil's post. That who I cut and pasted. I'm just the middle man caught in the crossfire here!

[FAA]

i was told by someone in the casino business, that it typically takes
400k spins to 'cycle' a machine. do not know if that refers to all
machines or slots only.This is an interesting tidbit.

[Mr.Dawes]

When I first started playing and studying video poker I thought a lot about the question of luck vs. math. I believed as an earlier post stated that you would have to play continually on the same machine to see mathematically expected results and that math was less relevant to my 3 - 5 hours of play once or twice a month. But then I thought about flipping a coin. If one person flipped a coin 100 times in a row and another person flipped a coin once a month for 100 months there is no reason to expect that the first person is more likely to get a 50/50 outcome. So I decided there was no difference in taking a 2 minute bathroom break or a 2 week back to real life break from my play. The question for me became how many hands needed to be played for the actual results to approximate mathematical expectations. I read once that if a coin were flipped 100 times the odds of the mathematically expected 50/50 result are .08%. A coin flip has only two outcomes whereas video poker has 2,598,960 five card hands. I may have started playing to late in life to see them all.

[pokerpokerpoker]

lots of DDB volatility talk here. Here are my YTD results playing mostly .50 and $1 with some quarters. 99% or better machines always at max coin with sessions limited to 2 hours max.

trip number /// bankroll /// results
1.              $800        +600
2.              $400        +1800 (progressive and AWAK)
3.              $800        busted
4.              $800        busted
5.              $800        busted
6.              $100        busted
7.              $200        busted
8.              $800        +$1400 (AWAK)
------------------------------------------
   results +$1,100 and a couple crab leg buffets and Valentines dinner at the steakhouse.

Sounds good, but if one of those big hands hadn't hit, the results could be much different. Or, should I hit a $1 royal the tally could be way way positive.

Just trying to show how volatile this game could be. I guess you could put me in the math camp. Know your strategy well, play the best paytables you can find and keep in mind that you can't win everytime and you can't loose everytime.

[Vman96]

 I read once that if a coin were flipped 100 times the odds of the mathematically expected 50/50 result are .08%. A coin flip has only two outcomes whereas video poker has 2,598,960 five card hands. I may have started playing to late in life to see them all.

Anyone who has played enough to see all the possible deals at least once plays needs to average 1000 hands per hour for almost 20 hours a week for 40 years.

This is an example of a "coupon collector's problem" and the average number of hands needed to see just the very last hand is 2,598,960 alone! And the second to last hand would be 2,598,960/2 = 1,299,480. And the third to last hand would be 2,598,960/3 = 866,320 and so on.

Sum them all together and you get this 39,888,416. And that's just the average hands it well take. For the unlucky ones, it could take much longer. No way I'm playing that much. Ever.

[Mr.Dawes]

Vman96 I have read a few of your posts and can tell that you have a much higher level of mathematics education than I do. I wonder if you can help me understand the following.Although there are 2,598,960 different hands many of those are identical for the player. For example, if you hit jacks or better it does not matter if the hand is Jacks, Queens, Kings or Aces and it also does not matter what the other 3 cards are. The same is true for almost all other winning hands, and of course if the hand is a loser who cares what the cards are. Do you know how many  "effectively" different hands there are?Thanks in advance