Strategy - Selecting the right game

[monic]

I understand and play Video Poker using the Dancer strategy.  However, there is one other thing that I keep in mind when selecting a VP game.  I stick to jacks, deuces wild, and maybe bonus poker.  I will give you my thinking on this and would like to hear your comments.
 
Perfect strategy is one thing to keep in mind when playing VP, but bankroll variation is also an important factor.  That is why I like to play games with the highest payback, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, ones that have decent paybacks at the low end of the paytable.  If you only get payed for the less frequent hands, the bankroll disappears quickly unless you are extremely lucky right at the start of play.
 
I will use a ridiculous example to illustrate why the strategy is not the complete story.  Assume that you have a paytable (not on any VP machine - just a mindgame here) that only pays for a particular card combination that has a 1 in a billion chance of paying off but when it pays off, it pays a trillion dollars.  That would be an extremely outstanding payback, but you would never live long enough to reap the benefit.  My point is that if the reward is only at the top of the paytable, you have to wait much longer for the payback and you may run out of money first.
 
Occasionally, I will play double, double bonus when I feel lucky, but that is a borderline game as far as I am concerned.
 
Can one of the video poker experts comment on this.

[jazzman12]

To have the best chance of winning over time on a VP machine, you need to choose the machine with the best payback and then play perfect strategy.

So, 9/6/4 DDB (98.98%) is a slightly better game than 9/5 JOB (98.45%). However, the variance on the games differ and so does the perfect play strategy. So, yes, if you put $100 in a quarter machine, you will be a bit more likely to lose that $100 a little quicker on the 9/6/4 DDB than the JOB, but, over time, the 9/6/4 DDB game is still a better game. That .53% advantage the DDB game has is significant over tens of thousands of hands - even though your bankroll will fluctuate a little more as you play those tens of thousands of hands. Also, though, if a person is more adept and understands perfect play on the JOB machine better than the DDB machine, that may make enough difference to compensate for the .53% advantage and the JOB machine may be better for them to be playing.

Always play the best paytables, but also only play the games that you feel you have a great grasp on how to play perfectly. Both factors can affect your ultimate payback.

[MikeA]

I don't know if I qualify as an "expert", but I'll comment anyway.  Not being smart never stopped me before.Monic, you are pretty much correct except possibly for considering the paybacks on the bonus games to take so long to hit.  Granted, they do hit less often than on games like JOB where the payback is mainly in the 2-pair category.  What you are talking about in Gambling terms is "VARIANCE".  If you use VPW or most any other VP software that generates strategy, you can take note of the variance of most any game by looking under "Analyze" and "Game" or "Strategy".  The higher the VARIANCE, the longer you will go between really winning hands.  Simply stated, you will have higher wins and higher loses playing a high variance game and just as you said, you might possibly run out of money before you hit.However, you must also look at the paytables and factor that into the decision as to which to play and to that, add in the complexity of the strategy.  Find your comfort zone.Personally, I like Double Double Bonus.  It gets terribly frustrating when I go through 400 credits without hitting a quad but when those bonus quads do hit, it sure gets exciting!  Playing JOB would be a way for me to pretty much insure playing the longest time on the smallest amount of money, but it has not the adrenalin rush.  I mean, you get quad aces and are rewarded with 125 credits and curse yourself for not playing Double Double Bonus and getting 800 credits or 2,000 with the kicker.  Those 2,000 credit hits can cover a lot of 400 credit quadless sessions <LOL>

[monic]

I have both Dancer programs but for this comment, I used the old program.  You can load a jacks game and put it on autoplay.  By just holding down the deal key, you can play thousands of games in a very short period of time.  Then you can do the same for double, double bonus.
 
If you watch the fluctuation of your bankroll as the cards speed by, you will see that the games with the better paybacks at the lower end of the paytable have the smallest bankroll variation.  On some of the games with the really high end paybacks, even though they have a high percentage return, you run out of money after a short period of time.  So what good is the high payback when you never get the hands with the high payout.
 
There is one game at Belterra that pays out an extremely large dollar amount if you get a royal flush with the cards in the correct sequence.  This is a game where the payout may be outstanding but the odds of getting it are so small that you may run through your life savings before you hit it.  But then, someone hits it once in a while.
 
I really like my Dancer programs because you can simulate a lot of stuff extremely fast.

[MikeA]

You just described VARIANCE.  It definitely can be a factor for a limited bankroll.I have both Dancer programs but for this comment, I used the old program.  You can load a jacks game and put it on autoplay.  By just holding down the deal key, you can play thousands of games in a very short period of time.  Then you can do the same for double, double bonus.
 
If you watch the fluctuation of your bankroll as the cards speed by, you will see that the games with the better paybacks at the lower end of the paytable have the smallest bankroll variation.  On some of the games with the really high end paybacks, even though they have a high percentage return, you run out of money after a short period of time.  So what good is the high payback when you never get the hands with the high payout.
 
There is one game at Belterra that pays out an extremely large dollar amount if you get a royal flush with the cards in the correct sequence.  This is a game where the payout may be outstanding but the odds of getting it are so small that you may run through your life savings before you hit it.  But then, someone hits it once in a while.
 
I really like my Dancer programs because you can simulate a lot of stuff extremely fast.

[royalgt]

As a newbie, 1 1/2 years of playing consistently,
I understand bankroll and which game to play on a relatively volatile game. I
have been playing 10X  DW and just float between 5 and 10 cents, where I
usually play 5 quarters on single line. It seems to work with me and $500 goes a long way if
you are playing nickels. Another words you can play a smaller denomination if
there is no penalty at the pay table.