1000000 Hands Analyzed

[brmcc74]

This is a hypothetical story about a guy named Joe. Joe got sick of working a 9-5 . It was too boring for him. Joe hears about how video poker is a beatable game with practice and dicipline. After reading a few books, Joe realizes the first thing that he needs to do is move to Las Vegas where they have the best pay tables available.  Joe has inhereted 500k from his grand parents. Joe will use the 500k as his ROR.  The first game that Joe learns is JOB @ 99.54% payback. Joe decides on 1$ denom single line JOB as his vp career starter. Joe earns 1 point per 1$ played. After 1000 points are accumulated, Joe recieves 1$ downloadable play. So for 1 million hands played, Joe recieves $5000 cash back. Now hear are the results of Joes first 1 million hands. Joe plays 3 times per week @ 6 hours per session.

 
Joes pay back was 99.84% this session= +.3% than expected return
 
26 Royals hit      / 102 SF hit      / 2444- 4 Oaks hit
 
1'000'000 Hands Played @ 675 hands per hour= 1481.48 hours invested
 
1481.48 HI / 18 (hours per week) = 82.304 weeks / 52 = 1.583 years
 
247 total sessions were played for an average loss of  $-62.87 Hard Play
 
Total Hard Play loss is $-15530 + $5000 free play=  $ -10030
 
$-10030 / 247= $-40.60 / 6 hours= Average loss per hour to play= $-6.77
 
500'000 BKRL - 10030(loss)= $489'970 = Joes new BKRL
 
Joe is scratching his head right now at the fact that he lost $. He is relieved although that he did better than expected.
Not sure if I will continue to simulate these 1 million hands. It took alot longer than I thought it would. My original plan was to do 5 of the most popular games, we will see.

[shadowman]

Joe played a negative game and lost money as he should have. Looks pretty reasonable to me.

[Eduardo]

This is a hypothetical story about a guy named Joe. Joe got sick of working a 9-5 .
 I'd get sick of working a 9-5 too. Assuming an hour lunch break, working a 9-6 has a 12.5% better return! Must look at those paytables paychecks!

[brmcc74]

Joe played a negative game and lost money as he should have. Looks pretty reasonable to me. Thats considered a full pay game. I agree that no suprises were noticed in this 1 million hands. Joe did good actually. Im just starting a virtural career of a guy "Joe" that plays these games with these pay tables. I want to see what happens after umpteen million hands, as would be reality.

[Eduardo]

Thats considered a full pay gameFull pay for jacks or better, yes. Full pay does NOT mean positive. You even state that it has a negative return. It could be positive if there is cashback/points associated with it. But without? 99.84% will always be less than 100%. Continuing with umpteen million hands on a negative game isn't going to teach you anything unless you realize this. He will continue to lose money unless he improves his odds above 100%. When "Joe heard about how video poker is a beatable game with practice and dicipline" he should have looked into which games are "beatable." And he really needs to learn about how a players card works.

[brmcc74]

[QUOTE=brmcc74]Thats considered a full pay game

Full pay for jacks or better, yes. Full pay does NOT mean positive. You even state that it has a negative return.
 
It could be positive if there is cashback/points associated with it. But without? 99.84% will always be less than 100%.
 
When "Joe heard about how video poker is a beatable game with practice and dicipline" he should have looked into which games are "beatable." And he really needs to learn about how a players card works.[/QUOTE] I agree with you guys. I used JOB as a foundation to Joes begining career. Im being totally honest about the outcomes. I will do a positive ex game next.

[Eduardo]

Why is Joe playing a negative expectation game to begin with though? If he got half a million, he should invest in something like video poker for winners so he can figure this stuff out more quickly.

[Quad Deuces]

Joe also needs to concentrate his play when point multipliers are in effect.

[shadowman]

[QUOTE=shadowman]Joe played a negative game and lost money as he should have. Looks pretty reasonable to me. Thats considered a full pay game. I agree that no suprises were noticed in this 1 million hands. Joe did good actually. Im just starting a virtural career of a guy "Joe" that plays these games with these pay tables. I want to see what happens after umpteen million hands, as would be reality. [/QUOTE]


 
Full pay does not mean one is expected to win. This is a common misconception among many gamblers. Full pay usually means the best paytable for a particular game. For example, FP Bonus Poker is only 99.17% return. In order to be favored to win the return needs to be over 100%. And, the higher the return the more likely a person is to win over time.

[faygo]

Joe reminds me of the local loggers . They say they are millionaires and they are going to keep  logging until it is gone.