VP cycles

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
Post Reply
olds442jetaway
Video Poker Master
Posts: 10755
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:08 pm

VP cycles

Post by olds442jetaway »

Seems like we all know about the long bad  and short good cycles in VP. I have tried something new which seems to work fine on this site, but will it work at the casino? I guess I will find out. From the various paytable and analyzer sites, it is easy to compute the frequency of a bet returning at least double your money in the long run.  For instance, in Draw Poker (JOB), it is about every 4 hands, Kings or Better Joker about every 5 hands, and Deuces wild about every 6 hands. For games without wild cards, like DDB the frequency is much higher, like every 10 hands or more. That of course is because the 2 pair returns only your bet back and not double your bet.  Anyway, on this site, I have been playing some of the games with a frequency of 6 or less and tried it on Wolf VP as well. I wait for a cycle where you are being returned at least double your bet within the probabilities above ( every 4, 5, or 6, ) hands depending on the game and then bet 2 units per bet instead of one until the cycle breaks. (example 7 or more hands between a bet returning double your money on deuces wild. ). I then simply play 1 unit until the short winning cycles return. The risk I see in this is what I call flip flopping where as soon as you go to 2 units, there is a long cycle, and as soon as you switch back to 1 unit, you get a winning hand. Even with these flip flops, the above seems to work very well. If anyone has success or not trying this, I would be interested to see how others are diong. As always, good luck and health to all.......

olds442jetaway
Video Poker Master
Posts: 10755
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:08 pm

Post by olds442jetaway »

If anyone wants or cares to know what olds 442 jetaway stands for, I for many years had a 65 Olds 442 with a jetaway automatic transmission. (wish it was a 4 speed and I would still have it).  Thanks.

BobDancer
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1115
Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:07 am

Post by BobDancer »

The "system" you are describing is basically smoke and mirrors. You are using the past few minutes of results to predict the future. It simply doesn't work.Over millions of hands, video poker games will return what they are supposed to --- discounted by your error rate --- which is probably much higher than you think if you're not practicing regularly on computer software. Plus the 1-coin strategy is very different from the 5-coin strategy and most players who switch back and forth do not make the proper adjustments.Over various short terms, the results will be higher or lower than this long term average --- in a very unpredictable way. Trying to predict something that is unpredictable is not a rare event --- but it is doomed to be futile. Your method is costless percentagewise --- except when you hit a royal flush --- which will often come out of the blue with no warning at all. Bob


Post Reply