Slash Machine Time

[FAA]

Reading the CET pamphlet, "A Guide to Understanding the Odds" is quite sobering: "the longer a person plays a casino game, the more the person should expect to lose. If the hold percentage is 10%, a player will win back $90 for each $100 wagered. However, if this player then re-wagers the $90, the player will again win back 90%, or $81. As the betting continues, over time players are more and more likely to lose money...the machine always comes out ahead in the long run."Low Roller Alert: at a CET machine, they are warning gamblers to hit the beach after acquiring ten Tier Credits, $100 wagered on below full pay machines, or two Tier Credits for 9/6 quarter JOB. $90 will soon hit $81, then $72, etc. On 99.54% return machine, if you see $90 after $100 wagered, a real red flag. Follow Phil's $20 max rule. Never linger until the likely endgame. I learned the hard way recently on an ice cold box. I should scotch tape this paragraph onto the the back of my phone cover. 

[rascal]

"....the machine always comes out ahead in the long run." Always. Always. Always. Why do so many VP players refuse to accept this truth? Sure, amazing short-term runs happen every day, every week, maybe every month..... but not for a year and definitely not for years. Enjoy your windfalls when they occur but accept that if you are a long-term player, the casino always gets its cut.

[FAA]

amazing short-term runs happen every day, every week, maybe every month, but not for a year and definitely not for years.Royal Flush in Jan. and treading water since. If I return in 2016, I guarantee winning 2015. Quite an enforced hard sabbatical. Memorial Day weekend will see me fighting the crowds.

[notes1]

"....the machine always comes out ahead in the long run." Always. Always. Always. Why do so many VP players refuse to accept this truth? Sure, amazing short-term runs happen every day, every week, maybe every month..... but not for a year and definitely not for years. Enjoy your windfalls when they occur but accept that if you are a long-term player, the casino always gets its cut.
  from all the posts i read here, i think there are very few VP players who feel the game is going to produce positive results, especially in the long term. more and more comments are about how to play a negative expectation game, without going through one's budget. most concede that they hope to win, but expect to lose. it is their entertainment. anyone who believes they can win on a consistent basis, has not been reading the posts of those who have been playing a long time. and, anyone who boasts about winning all the time, why don't they quit their jobs and play full time?

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=notes1]anyone who believes they can win on a consistent basis, has not been
reading the posts of those who have been playing a long time. and,
anyone who boasts about winning all the time, why don't they quit their
jobs and play full time?[/quote]The given odds of a video poker game are the mathematically calculated theoretical odds based on infinite factors.  The problem with the practical application of these odds is that no two players will receive exactly the same hand combinations in a lifetime of play.  For example, the royal flush accounts for nearly 2% of the profit in most video poker games.  Even with perfect play, some players will see more royals than the math allows and some will see less. There is no strategy that will absolutely guarantee you will be a long term winner even if you only play 100% games computer perfectly.  Luck plays a significant role in whether you will be a long term winner or loser.  Winning long term does not necessarily mean you can quit your job over it.  Winning only means that you took in more money than you put out.  It doesn't matter if that amount is $1 or $1Million, they are all still winners.

[Tedlark]

Because I am content with a profit of a few hundred dollars, or sometimes better, I will quit playing at that point and call it a session. I am not going to let greed control me and,at some point, it is greed that will quickly turn a mildly profitable session into a losing session.

[FAA]

I like their yardstick. After $100 wagered, you have a fair idea of whether it is a playable machine. If losses hit $10, close up shop. After all, that's twenty times your expected loss on a 9/6 game. Escape the beat down!  

[FloridaPhil]

No one wins playing video poker all the time, not even the casino.  My
strategy is to play as small as possible 90% of the time and bet bigger
10%.  The reason I do this is not because the odds say it's the best way
to play.  I do it because it keeps me from building up a huge loss that
requires me to hit a max coin royal to overcome it and when I do hit a
good max coin jackpot I keep it.   Previous to switching to the Cheap
Strategy, my average loss was $10-20K a year.   Right now, I am ahead
about $7K over an 18 month period.  That's not  a lot of money, but it's better than where I was before. The odds say this can't happen,
but there it is.

[alpax]

There is no strategy that will absolutely guarantee you will be a long term winner even if you only play 100% games computer perfectly.

I have always been curious by this so finally I will try to experiment this scenario by using Video Poker for Winners. I will create a new session with the following:

1. Setting the initial bankroll to 4x royal flush in quarters ($4000 or 16000 quarter credits)
2. The game will be 10/6 DDB with a 100.07% ER
3. Set to fast autoplay

No need to factor in comps or casino club cashback in the equation because you will not get any by playing 100% games.

I will run it for a few hours a day, saving the session each day and will post the results

[alpax]

Reading the CET pamphlet, "A Guide to Understanding the Odds" is quite sobering: "the longer a person plays a casino game, the more the person should expect to lose. If the hold percentage is 10%, a player will win back $90 for each $100 wagered. However, if this player then re-wagers the $90, the player will again win back 90%, or $81. As the betting continues, over time players are more and more likely to lose money...the machine always comes out ahead in the long run."Low Roller Alert: at a CET machine, they are warning gamblers to hit the beach after acquiring ten Tier Credits, $100 wagered on below full pay machines, or two Tier Credits for 9/6 quarter JOB. $90 will soon hit $81, then $72, etc. On 99.54% return machine, if you see $90 after $100 wagered, a real red flag. Follow Phil's $20 max rule. Never linger until the likely endgame. I learned the hard way recently on an ice cold box. I should scotch tape this paragraph onto the the back of my phone cover. 



I think this applies more towards penny slot machines than to full pay Jacks or Better (provided you can play it perfectly for long sessions at a time). It is the stuff they tell you on problem gambling hotlines.

No offense, I think you are overreacting with Jacks or Better example. That game, you slowly lose over long sessions and get most of it back on a royal flush.