Bankroll Issues

[FloridaPhil]

Post unable to migrate

[onemoretry]

My wife and I have been playing VP together for about 10
years.   Are we long term winners? Of course not.   Have we enjoyed the game and everything that
comes with it?  For sure.  Would we recommend this game to others?  In a heartbeat...Merry Christmas!! 
I could write pretty much the same thing, except, for us, it's 25 years.

The only one of your points that does not apply to us is number one. We did once discuss the idea, but felt no strong need to pursue it. We do keep separate trip bankrolls, whether it be a one or two day trip, or one of our extended Nevada journeys. Sometimes, though, one of us does poorly enough that we have to readjust.

[FloridaPhil]

My wife and I commonly loan money to one another, especially on long trips when one of us has a streak of bad luck. We pay each other back upon return.  The reason we keep separate bankrolls is because our styles of play are so different.  My wife is very conservative.  She watches her money carefully and getting her to move up in denomination is practically impossible.  I on the other hand enjoy taking more risks which makes my bankroll fluctuations much more radical.  As you would imagine, she does most of the money loaning.   

[rascal]

Florida Phil, all good points, thanks.

I appreciate your honesty in your last paragraph, stating that of course you and your wife are not long-term winners. I think this is one of the most misunderstood points in all of VP!!!

As some of you might recall, I have an immediate family member who was a high ranking executive in a major casino holding corporation, until she retired a while back. She worked her way up from a mid-level management position in a single casino to eventually becoming a corporate executive. So, she has a tremendous amount of hands-on experience regarding casino operations.

During a recent very candid conversation with her (she is more candid since she retired than before, lol) she told me that in more than 3 decades in casino operations, she did not know of a single player who was ahead long-term on video poker. Now, she was quick to point out that there are VP professionals in Vegas who are ahead long-term when they combine casino comps and special point days with their actual VP earnings. But these people, she said, have to accept a life of constantly running from one casino to another, studying special point promotion schedules, scratching for mailers, looking for ripe progressives, and so on. And even then, she said, most of them are just barely getting by. The very few *successful* long-term winners that she knows of combine all of the above and also find other opportunities, such as selling systems, working as consultants for casinos, making appearances, ect etc. But as far as being ahead solely on VP games on a long-term basis, no.

This is a person who has spent her career in casino operations, and so I think it is an important statement for all of us to remember --- she knows of not a single player who is ahead long-term solely on VP.

The only way she knows of to beat the game is to (a) play short-term, win big, and quit playing; or (b) play long-term and combine all of the benefits you can possibly find and then maybe come out a few points ahead.

Her point is: Casinos do not place even one game on the floor that can be beaten long-term. They rely on players having short-term luck, and that keeps them coming back. The casinos also rely on something they call "A Smooth Ride" which means that when you're losing over time, your loss is not horrendous; rather, it is gradual and doesn't hurt the player as badly as a total financial wipeout would.

And the final thing she told me in the candid conversation is something I will never forget: Casinos do not make much money on the occasional visitor who is in Vegas for a long weekend with his wife as a tourist. It is the regular, the player who keeps coming back (me!!!) who provides the vast majority of a casino's revenues. This is largely because of the long-term law of averages ---- the casino is going to absolutely make money long-term on the regular, while with the short-termer of course there is a realistic possibility that the player will leave ahead and not come back, or not come back for a long time.

Thus, the casino will do whatever it has to do, within regs, to keep a regular coming back. Hence the "Smooth Ride". Or the casino rule that handpays must be paid at the machine. (It would be simple to document a handpay under the multiple cameras at the cage, but then the player might leave and go home. Pay him right there at his machine and it increases the odds that he will put that money back into the machine instead of going home.) Treat the regular with respect, give him a host, offer him comps, whatever, but keep him coming back because long-term he is a golden egg for the casino.

OK, I got a little carried away here, but Florida Phil's statement that of course he and his wife are not long term winners was so honest and refreshing that I thought I would share the comments from the family member who is a definite authority on casino operations.

[FAA]

The casinos also rely on "A Smooth Ride" which means
that when you're losing over time, your loss is not horrendous; rather,
it is gradual and doesn't hurt the player as badly as a total financial
wipeout would.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Borgata is probably AC's Smooth Ride master. Caesars and Harrah's are essentially wipe out kings.    I've never played at levels warranting a hand pay. But I'd be gone ASAP. It's just prudent and logical for my personality.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=rascal]OK, I got a little carried away here, but Florida Phil's statement that
of course he and his wife are not long term winners was so honest and
refreshing that I thought I would share the comments from the family
member who is a definite authority on casino operations.[/quote]Outstanding post.  Coming out ahead at the end of a year or even multiple years not counting comps or any other outside wins is possible.  Doing it consistently for years on end is impossible.  I don't think even Bob Dancer makes that claim. However, there are proven ways to minimize the cost.The big question is how much does it cost you to play and can you gain something else that offsets that cost?  If you want to play video poker on a regular basis, you must find the right balance between your cost to play and the enjoyment you get from it. 

[alpax]

Interesting story how you were able to get your spouse into VP, thanks for sharing that story. I did already state before that being able to spend quality time together is a victory in itself, a good amount of people cannot get their significant other to play. Mr. Dancer would not entrust his current wife to play video poker unless she is willing to go through at least 2000 hours of rigorous training, but that is alright to me as he is a very serious individual and I barely know any women who push themselves very hard.

Mostly good points made, I just have a side note for #3 which pertains to variance. It is not about losing streaks, it is more about a trade off in swings. In order to experience the gratification of big winning days, one must also accept to be willing to go through rough days.

Also want to add that no matter if you are playing for fun or very seriously, you must maintain a steady stream of income to add to the bankroll. A good winning streak is no exception or a reprieve to this. Usually the losing streaks are nastier so you have to be prepared for it. Do not over tip the attendant graciously or celebrate hard.



As some of you might recall, I have an immediate family member who was a high ranking executive in a major casino holding corporation, until she retired a while back. She worked her way up from a mid-level management position in a single casino to eventually becoming a corporate executive. So, she has a tremendous amount of hands-on experience regarding casino operations.


I appreciate the long winded post rascal as I personally not find it easy to premeditate various thoughts and put it together in writing.

I am certain there are some lifetime winners. Long term action may vary from person to person, for some it can be a few visits a year and some it can be thousands of hours. It is possible to come out ahead without any comps or promos on a high variance game after 2000 hours worth of action, but not likely. Probably your relative was promoted to the rank after the golden glory days of video poker where positive opportunities were available 24/7. As Mr. Dancer stated, only the strong willed/dedicated or skilled players can remain successful even 15 years after the glory days.

I have seen rebuttals made by folks who proclaim to be successful gamblers that operations in casino management should focus on the overall performance of the entire casino, and not single out individuals. Even if you combined the result of all the action of the one-time action visitors, the mathematical result will be nearing the long term expectations of the game which is heavily in favor of the casino.

I agree with the psychological traps the casinos have of trying to get players to return from the excitement of short term luck, paying out handpays at the machine, and providing comps/host at a perceived value higher than what it actually will cost. They have to get people to play.

If winners are restricted, word will spread fast. Casinos that allow a few winners seem to be the most successful in general.

[rascal]

Good responses. My family member was in casinos from approximately 1984 until 2015.

[Carcounter]

You can be a smart recreational player and come out ahead over multiple years, but it does require luck and skill. Essentially you have to be over royaled or hit a bigger number of dueces or 4oak's with a kicker, depending on your game of choice.. This has been my experience since I started keeping records 12 years ago. Make no mistake, I don't think I am a better VP player than anyone on this board, but if you play the right games, with proper stategy, your chances of getting "lucky" go up. Years ago there were 100% plus games available in AC. They died with the recession. But during these years I did quite well and won consistently. 4 out of 5 years. The last 7-8 years have been more of a roller coaster with more losing than winning years on 99%, but not 100% plus gaqmes. Coincidence? Maybe, but I believe the more chances you have, the more likely you will hit something big. I was way over royaled those good years from I think 2004-2006. Mostly on $1.00 All Americans.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=alpax]Mr. Dancer would not entrust his current wife to play video poker unless
she is willing to go through at least 2000 hours of rigorous training,
but that is alright to me as he is a very serious individual and I
barely know any women who push themselves very hard.[/quote]My wife would have serious disagreement with your statement about women not pushing themselves very hard.  She is a very successful self made business woman who pushes herself as hard or harder than any man I have ever met.  I do not know anything about the current Mrs. Dancer.  I suspect if she's married to Bob, she's a pretty strong individual. I also expect you are right about the 2000 hours of training.[quote=alpax]Also want to add that no matter if you are playing for fun or very
seriously, you must maintain a steady stream of income to add to the
bankroll. [/quote]Absolutely true. This is one point that I believe is widely misunderstood.