The game is not the same !

[sam434343]

williejoe, I will listen to you. Your knowledge of the computer chip, this is my opinion, is way beyond 99% of people on this site, even the die hards(experts). Quick story(try) went 2 and half years without a RF played well over 250,000hands(wrote in past post) then got couple RF with couple(few) month of each other. Olds442jetaway to my understanding has had similar with out getting RF. I buy into that the computer chip is random,but when there are a lot of people and there is somebody like you that has a wealth of understanding of the computer chip then maybe there is something going on. I just don't have anuff knowledge of the computer chip to say much. And will listen to you! Congratulation on wife and your wins. Sam

[BillyJoe]

I hear you, and I do not doubt your experiences. But I am back to the question that I raised on this subject a while back. If the casinos and IGT can/do manipulate the short term output on VP, why then have (A) poorer pay tables and (B) lower denoms only on high volatility games, like TDB ?
 
The trend in the casinos that I see toward VP is to reduce the casino's risk to a large payout.

[williejoe]

billyjoe, i agree that by far the biggest issue that impacts us vp players is the poorer paytables implemented by the casinos ( not igt ). i personally don't view the vp programming as being "manipulated" by the casino----i view it more as the programs/algorithms are being refined to "smooth out" the output ( number stream ) that determins the cards dealt. one of the results of this "refinement" is that it makes it less likely that you can play, let say, a quarter machine at max play for ten dollars and determine if you have a "hot" machine. that is to say, the hot and cold segments of the number steam have been dampened so that one will more likely have to play for a much longer time to realize a few hot hands---and we all know this is the only thing that keeps us in the game with any chance to win or even break even.

[olds442jetaway]

Seems to me, the short term ultra hot streaks are now mostly gone. I haven't seen one in over 2 years on any machine or any game. You would think that someone like me who plays a million or more hands a year would once in a while get one of those short term hot streaks. Thinking about it over the years, that is the only way you can get ahead for awhile as long as you quit after one of those hits. The last 2 years however, just seems like a long, slow, downward spiral of losses. And if you do hit something good after a long session of playing, it seems to return you to about 95% of your losses for the day and rarely over 100%. Just speaking from experience here and not the math or statistics necessarily.

[williejoe]

olds442jetaway-----your story is one that i and many other very long-term vp players who play ten of thousands a hands a year will tell you is in fact their experience also. the few so called experts who decry this opinion may either be fooling themselves or have some other motive.

[BillyJoe]

billyjoe, i agree that by far the biggest issue that impacts us vp players is the poorer paytables implemented by the casinos ( not igt ). i personally don't view the vp programming as being "manipulated" by the casino----i view it more as the programs/algorithms are being refined to "smooth out" the output ( number stream ) that determins the cards dealt. one of the results of this "refinement" is that it makes it less likely that you can play, let say, a quarter machine at max play for ten dollars and determine if you have a "hot" machine. that is to say, the hot and cold segments of the number steam have been dampened so that one will more likely have to play for a much longer time to realize a few hot hands---and we all know this is the only thing that keeps us in the game with any chance to win or even break even.
Once again, I do not doubt your experiences. But, am I wrong that ANY 'smoothing' of output, in which the next dealt card is based on the cards held, would violate Gaming Control regulations? That would be the same as your blackjack dealer looking at your hand, then looking at the card he is about to give you, and decide that you have already won too many hands, so he will give you a different card. 
 
I agree that the new technology has made the VP machines mix the deck more frequently, but that could work to your advantage just as well as your disadvantage - can't it?
 
If there are such things as hot and cold segments in the number streams in a VP machine, then I would think that a manipulation like that is not within the gaming regulations either, since every hand should be the result of a random, shuffled deck. 
 
Let's face it. You are going to get more losing hands in VP than winning hands.     

[williejoe]

billyjoe, any prng used in a vp machine produces a very well defined stream of numbers that can be documented and examined ( by the igt programmers )---given the same prng algorithm---this number stream does not change----the hands you are dealt depend where you are within this very, very long number stream-----where you are within this number stream is determined by the seeding ( which is random ) and the passage of time as the processor generates the numbers. and for all practical purposes this does produce a random deal of the 52 card deck that meets the statistical requiremets set by the navada gaming commission. but every string of numbers generated by a prng will contain segments that represent what we have called "hot" or "cold" hands-----remember hot and cold terminology doesn't mean anything to the program or the algorithm-----it only means something to us because of how we have assigned the payouts for certain hands. different algorithms will exhibit different groupings or spread of   these hot/cold segments--------any of the algorithms used in the vp machines are constructed so that they do a good job in generating a number steam that meets the randomness criteria set by the regulations-----but they can have different "personalities"----their distribution of hot and cold segments can be very different. again, i wouldn't call this manipulation by the casino-----it is more that igt has developed more "sofisticated" algorithms that make it even less likely than before that someone can play a number of hands and stay within a segment of the number steam that we would deem as hot or cold. randomness is not sacraficed----the   distribution and length of what we call hot and cold segments are modified-----this is what i have referred to as the "smoothing" of the number stream

[BillyJoe]

billyjoe, any prng used in a vp machine produces a very well defined stream of numbers that can be documented and examined ( by the igt programmers )---given the same prng algorithm---this number stream does not change----the hands you are dealt depend where you are within this very, very long number stream-----where you are within this number stream is determined by the seeding ( which is random ) and the passage of time as the processor generates the numbers. and for all practical purposes this does produce a random deal of the 52 card deck that meets the statistical requiremets set by the navada gaming commission. but every string of numbers generated by a prng will contain segments that represent what we have called "hot" or "cold" hands-----remember hot and cold terminology doesn't mean anything to the program or the algorithm-----it only means something to us because of how we have assigned the payouts for certain hands. different algorithms will exhibit different groupings or spread of   these hot/cold segments--------any of the algorithms used in the vp machines are constructed so that they do a good job in generating a number steam that meets the randomness criteria set by the regulations-----but they can have different "personalities"----their distribution of hot and cold segments can be very different. again, i wouldn't call this manipulation by the casino-----it is more that igt has developed more "sofisticated" algorithms that make it even less likely than before that someone can play a number of hands and stay within a segment of the number steam that we would deem as hot or cold. randomness is not sacraficed----the   distribution and length of what we call hot and cold segments are modified-----this is what i have referred to as the "smoothing" of the number stream
See, this is where you lose me in this discussion as it relates to random hands. I understand seeding, continuous shuffling and the RNG always running. But I do not understand how a number segment could INTENTIONALLY be programmed to produce a string of numbers that translate to a specific hand, and still pass muster as being a randomly generated hand.
 
As I understand it, when I hit DEAL, the machine selects a number stream from wherever it is, and then the RNG continues. When I hold cards, and select DRAW, it selects the remaining cards. So, in fact, I have control over what cards I receive, related to the instant that I hit the button, only I do not know where I am in the number stream. 
 
What am I missing?   

[williejoe]

billyjoe, any and every number in a segment of the random number stream generated by a prng in a vp machine will translate into a card within the 52 card deck ( or it can be programmed to generated one of the possible 2,598.960 five card hands ). the prng stream is random in terms not being able to predict the next number ( or numbers ) that will be calculated by the algorithm from any previous numbers (cards dealt )----unless you know the algorithm and where exactly you are within that algorithms number steam-----if you do know these last two items, one can know what the next card(s) to be dealt will be. every number stream generated by the prng is extremly long ( 2 to the 2000 power----a truly huge number ) before it repeats-----but there are segments of this number stream that will yield hands that are hotter or colder than other segments of this stream. there are many different algorithms that will generate a long string of random numbers------if you have the Wolf video poker software----it will allow you to select among several different algorithms-----all generate random number streams-----but each has its own "personality". part of that personality will be the distribution and length of the "cold" and "hot" segments of the number stream. the igt programmers don't intentionally program an algorithm to give a specific hand or group of hands -----they develop algorithms that meet the randomness regulations/specs----and it is still chance ( timing ) that determins a given card or hand-------but the distribution of the numbers that make up the total number stream is different from algorithm to algorithm-----when you run into a period of time where   you're getting good hands, its because you are moving through a segment of the number stream that represents good hands ( and vice versa ) and remember that although the prng program may be calculating hundreds or thousands of hands a second-----at this rate the prng will progress through an extremly small portion of its full non-repeating number stream. so, an algorithm that is refined so that it has fewer and shorter number segments that would represent either hot or cold areas would exhibit a higher degree of shorter term randomness and be less predictable based on previous hands played-----this is what i personally believe explains a lot of the comments on this forum that something has changed in vp-----most of todays vp machines do not exhibit as frequently short term hot or cold periods as they use to------they now, more or less, play ----kind of luke warm-----more so than in past years.

[olds442jetaway]

Now I am wondering if the states are using these algorithms in their various lottery games. We used to hear about million dollar winners that would win again either in the same year or during the next few years. Most of them play the same numbers all the time or use quick pics. Could this smoothing out of the streaks apply here too? I can't remember hearing about these multiple winners in quite some time. I am sure they still exist. It just seems like they are not in the news much anymore. When the casinos first opened in Ct, they had machines that let you bet up to 80 credits on a single line game. This was great for players like me who like to use a version of a Martingale system to take advantage of the streaks. They now limit you to a bet of 5 up to 25 on some machines, but not more. I used to be able to hold my own under the old system. It was especially fun on the 2 cent machines where your bet would still be under 2 dollars a hand going all the way up to max bet. And backing it down accordingly saved your capital. With the 25 bet limit now, it doesn't work as well at all and changing denominations within the same machine to offset this just doesn't seem to work at all.