Objective in playing VP

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=Lucky Larry]

 Hey, we make part of our two hour drives enjoyable by counting the number of hawks on the fence posts and telephone poles as we drive through the back roads and rice fields to the casino.


  Actually, LL, the wife and I point out hawks to each other on our drives too. I think they are radar detectors for the police to catch speeders.

[Frank Kneeland]

While I may make a lot of casino visits in a year, I do not play enough hands on each trip for the overall math to work in my favor.Horse Before CartI hear comments like this a lot, where people seem to think that it takes some amount of hands for math to come into play. Oddly, the exact opposite is true. Probability math is primarily for making decisions about the future in advance of results. Therefore, the amount of hands one needs to play for math to dominate a good decision making process is 0. As a person's number of hands above 0 begin to accrue, chance will dominate for a time, until the law of large numbers begins to hold sway once again when the standard deviation of the game becomes muted by the sheer volume of hands. As far as how long it takes for math to effect them, if they choose to
play a game where the full house paid one less, they'd start feeling the
effects the first time they got a full house.Of course, how you do never effects that all important second of decision that occurred back before you had played a single hand and based your choice on what to play on nothing but math.In anything involving a random element; good results to not validate bad decisions, and bad results do not invalidate good decisions. And I suppose, just to be clear on this, we should mention that; Good results do not validate good decisions, and bad results do not invalidate bad decisions.More simply stated: In events involving randomness, good or bad results do not validate or invalidate decisions in any way.If a person does justify their decisions based on how they do in a game involving random chance, they may have what's called, "Outcome Bias". BTW...This particular bias is most prevalent in the stock market and sports.If you come to town and choose to play live KENO and win, I'm still going to think you make poor choices, and I'm not going to let you marry my daughter, no matter what you offer as a dowry.In summary: thinking that how much you play insulates you from the effects of math, is like saying you can fly because you've never studied law (Law of gravity), it also belies the true purpose of mathematical reasoning, which is to help you make good decisions before you play even 1 hand. You seem to be putting the cart before the horse.Math comes first. > Then Decision making. > Then Play comes lastAt each step of this process you only have the past to go on. Since playing is the last step, you cannot include how you are going to do in your decision of what to do, since you haven't done it yet.~FKReferences: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outcome_bias 

[royal flush]

very weel put frank you like i are advantage players in vp and other games

[Frank Kneeland]

very well put frank you like i are advantage players in vp and other games Sadly there's been so much chatter about long term vs. short term on these forums that's been either misunderstood, or misrepresented, or both, that the popular opinion no longer reflects the truth which is that math in VP is:NO TERMIt applies to people that play 1 hand, or a million hands, or 100 million...and it is especially useful when your hand count is still 0.John
Arbuthnot said it best when he said:





"There are very few things which we
know, which are not capable of being reduc'd to a Mathematical
Reasoning; and when they cannot it's a sign our knowledge of them is
very small and confus'd; and when a Mathematical Reasoning can be had
it's as great a folly to make use of any other, as to grope for a
thing in the dark, when you have a Candle standing by you. ~John
Arbuthnot, 1692"

I think that's my new job title, "candle peddler".

[shadowman]

One of the interesting points relative to "the math" has to do with how a games return is computed. Basically, all possible hands and draws are studied to determine the overall average return. In addition, since all VP hands are independent, this means this basic math applies to each individual hand. Essentially, any and every hand could appear next but all we can know is the average value. The higher this average value, the better. The key point though is this math simply applies to your next hand. No more, no less. So, I like to think the math applies to 1 hand. 
 
Now, there's another branch of math called statistics that looks at multiple events and provides probabilities about what can be expected. Often these two separate and distinct mathematical fields are thrown together which leads to the kind of remarks like Billyjoe's.
 
There are plenty of reasons why a person might not play a game with the best average return. However, assuming the math doesn't apply should not be one of them.

[Frank Kneeland]

Well said shadow. I'd like to play devils advocate and point out that Billyjoe's remarks are perhaps the more popular opinion and the result of tons of bad information circulating around the net/world. I for one would be shocked if people didn't think exactly the way he does, when so many people mix probability math and statistics. Who are these people, well schools for one.Probability math is taught in statistics class.It is taught as a subset of statistics, but when you try to remember back to your high school lessons a lot of things get muddled together. I have a hard time remembering if I dated the homecoming queen, was considered to be the home coming queen, or just sat next to her in class and had an overactive imagination. Whatever the case the memories are fond...(Better not upset the apple cart).Where math is concerned, it's best we remember the reality...Us candle peddlers will try to do our part. BTW: I'm peddling scented candles...

[brmcc74]

Good thing for all of us, theres room for the Billy Joe's, OTABILL'S, and the Franks. From Billy Joes past posts, he is having fun and has hit some nice JP's along the way. Frank is from another realm. Franks passion to be successful at VP is akin to Kobe Bryants passion about basketball. A no fail attitude. A Genuine player, like it or not he can play the game. Few people will play at that level with the same passion. That being said, we have three totally different paths taken but all are correct and justified. None will sway in their opinion, nor should they. Want Fries With That?

[BillyJoe]

Well said shadow.

I'd like to play devils advocate and point out that Billy Joe's remarks are perhaps the more popular opinion and the result of tons of bad information circulating around the net/world. I for one would be shocked if people didn't think exactly the way he does, when so many people mix probability math and statistics. Who are these people, well schools for one.

Probability math is taught in statistics class.

It is taught as a subset of statistics, but when you try to remember back to your high school lessons a lot of things get muddled together.


Well, my statistics professor in my MBA curriculum would probably take exception to your view. Yes, I agree, that on any given hand, I would benefit from a 9 FH pay versus an 8 FH pay. But the probability that the number of FHs that I get in a given gaming session would yield a measurable difference in my overall ROI is directly related to the number of hands played in that session, with more hands played having a bigger negative impact. So my point is, I know the results would be more positive with a 9 FH vs an 8 FH, but the difference in ROI for the number of hands played in my session is miniscule, and easily overcome with just one premium hand in that session.

[New2vp]

So my point is, I know the results would be more positive with a 9 FH vs an 8 FH, but the difference in ROI for the number of hands played in my session is miniscule, and easily overcome with just one premium hand in that session. Billyjoe, I like that you put your money up for your beliefs.The difference in ROI would only be greater with an 8 FH plus a premium hand if you thought for some reason you would NOT get that same premium hand when playing a 9 FH machine.  And I'm sure that given the choice, you would pick the 9 FH.  I'm guessing that your decision is generally not 8 FH vs. 9 FH; that one is easy.  Instead it is 8 FH vs. not playing TDB at all; that one may be tougher for some of us.

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billy joe]So my point is, I know the results would be more positive with a 9 FH vs an 8 FH, but the difference in ROI for the number of hands played in my session is miniscule, and easily overcome with just one premium hand in that session. Billy Joe, I like that you put your money up for your beliefs.

The difference in ROI would only be greater with an 8 FH plus a premium hand if you thought for some reason you would NOT get that same premium hand when playing a 9 FH machine.  And I'm sure that given the choice, you would pick the 9 FH.  I'm guessing that your decision is generally not 8 FH vs. 9 FH; that one is easy.  Instead it is 8 FH vs. not playing TDB at all; that one may be tougher for some of us.
[/QUOTE]
I use the FH paytable amount purely as an example. Actually, most TDB games I play have a 9 FH. I am sure, though, that there are overall paytables with higher returns in other casinos in other games. I just choose to not play Bonus Poker or JOB in a non-Strip casino while in Vegas to "gain" a 1or 2 % "increased" payback, while giving up the comps and Tier recognition that I receive with my play at the bigger casinos. As a non-Vegas resident, I can take that Tier achievement around the country.
If I lived in Vegas, and played regularly, I may have a different view, since the number of hands that I would play in a year would undoubtedly go up (I'm such a sick puppy ).