MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

[dinghy]

NEM chart:



Textbook example of stocks taking the escalator up, and the elevator down.

I'm buying more.

[case]

Hard to figure out about the markets with all the turmoil in the world right now. Yet somehow they are still just off record highs. Tariffs are having a strong effect as inflation rears its ugly head. Even with all this I think the markets will still climb.

It was the big 7 that carried the market in 2024 and it is that same group (minus Apple) that are dragging down the market as of late. Hard to buy so I am just nibbling but mostly just swing trade lately.

[dinghy]

Hard to figure out about the markets with all the turmoil in the world right now.

How are you measuring turmoil? Statistically afaik, this post-Cold War period has been one of the most peaceful in history. Scholars call it the Long Peace (dating back to 1945). Possibly it could be argued that we're setting up for turmoil, but hasn't happened yet imo.

I think we're also near lows on other bad societal stuff such as starvation and natural disaster deaths.

Hard to buy so I am just nibbling but mostly just swing trade lately.

I wonder why the fad terminology shifted from day trading to swing trading.

I'm a somewhat active trader, but presumably not one of the cool kids as I look at fundamentals and value rather than trend lines on a chart.

[olds442jetaway]

Still hitting YTD highs only because my dividend picks are holding their own and The money market is still paying 4 percent. Just up a bit, but up is up. Haven’t bought anything since SEVN which is holding its own and paying 11 percent. We may be lucky to have the market even approach 11 percent for 2025 IMO.

[dinghy]

We may be lucky to have the market even approach 11 percent for 2025 IMO.

Is it funny that all the feud targets are beating the US?

Gains since Jan 20 Inauguration Day:

USA (VTI) -2%
Canada (EWC) +1%
Europe (VGK) +6%
Mexico (EWW) +6%
China (MCHI) +19%

[case]

The USA beat everyone in 2024. Perhaps things have a way of equaling out. The US markets have been strong and maybe valuations are just getting too high?

[dinghy]

The USA beat everyone in 2024.

Yes, 2024 total returns shown below (data from Morningstar):

USA (VTI) +24%
Canada (EWC) +12%
Europe (VGK) +2%
Mexico (EWW) -28%
China (MCHI) +18%

The US markets have been strong and maybe valuations are just getting too high?

I've been riding that opinion for a while:

For tomorrow, VXUS closed only a few cents above my buy target. I would like to get really big into it if the price continues down. The fund holds 7800 stocks, so it's a one-stop shop for everything non-US.

Since I posted that, VXUS is +40% total return, but VTI (which I didn't and don't own) is +60% .

[dinghy]

Already a big position, I'm buying more SBSW.





It's a good company near the bottom of a cycle. For many years, platinum group metals have gone nowhere but down despite big rebounds in gold and silver. Although primarily known for PGMs, Sibanye also produces gold and base metals.

I think PGMs have been pressured by the electric car fantasy, but that's been overpromised and underdelivered. Sales of hybrid EVs (which need platinum) are outpacing battery EVs. And it's rumored that Russia dumped PGMs onto the market for war funding.

South Africa has just lately been in the news for legislation allowing property theft by the government. There's more to the story though because the black communist EFF party opposed it. They say it's useless without a Constitutional amendment.

So I don't see anything big happening on that front. In the unlikely event the government seizes company assets, Sibanye can fall back on its widespread international holdings.

[case]

I just looked at SBSW as I don't know anything about them. The price is almost at an all time low and a great time to buy if you believe in their future. Are they still paying their dividend or has it been suspended. The info I checked was not clear on this.

[dinghy]

Are they still paying their dividend or has it been suspended.

Suspended. I believe the last dividend was 11c for first half of 2023. Their recent high payout was $1.26 for full year 2021, when the share price was in the high teens (currently just above $3).

I categorize SBSW as a high-cost producer because their gold is relatively high cost against their peers, and PGM production is high cost because the selling price is low. This balances against my low-cost companies such as AGI Alamos Gold, and (different industry) VALE.

I have small positions in PGM producers ANGPY and IMPUY.

It seems to me the Trump admin is decelerating on its promises to cut stuff. Anything they cut will be spent on something else, and so we'll continue with sufficient stagflation to push commodity prices up.