MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

[olds442jetaway]

Well I chickened out on nibbling at Ford, AAPL, and Pru. But see the sqqq chart. I had a good Bizarro session and didn’t want to blow a plus session. There’s always tomorrow. I bought some sqqq at the open for 58, but timed it wrong. Then about 10AM, the fake news on a 90 day tarrif hold hit and tanked sqqq. I bought double the number of I had bought earlier at 58 and got them at 48. Then a few hours later, I was able to bail out and sell all at around 52. Still made a few bucks. Might nibble a bit tomorrow. We’ll see

[wildman49]

This market is an everything sell off, the bull might be dead. This reminds me so much of 2000-2001. If that's the case S&P going to see 4000 by fall. Could there be a new high first, anything is possible with so many shorts in the market. AI bubble hype burst NVDA is the CSCO for 2000. CSCO still has never got back to a new high from 2000 some 24 years later. NVDA could end up in the same boat.

This looks like a buy the dip trap.

The short selling was so bad in the turkey market they banned it.

[dinghy]

If that's the case S&P going to see 4000 by fall.

A level last seen 2 years ago.

This looks like a buy the dip trap.

I've been aggressive because I think the wrong stocks are being sold. Energy and basic materials are being priced as if headed for mass bankruptcies.

Brazilian natural resource stocks were pummeled today as President Lula is taking a hardline stance against Trump. I added to my BAK, GGB, PBR(/A) and VALE.

In the U of S, I added to my small INTC position as it fell below 18. I've traded INTC occasionally over the years, and that's the lowest price I've ever transacted at. I'm unencumbered though by any current knowledge of the company.

As I write, I just bought some TLT as it has traded down to 88. Low yields seem to be a top priority for Trump, and I don't think he'll fail without a fight. Also, it should be somewhat of a diversifier against my other holdings.

[dinghy]

My one green spot (ironically) today was coal. Trump said something about it.

METC was +14%. BTU was +9%, and is +10% additional in the extended session.

[olds442jetaway]

I’m keeping Vale. Hopefully no local government distractions against them. I was one day off on my buying SQQQ at the open. Instead of picking up just a point yesterday I could’ve picked up 10 today. I didn’t buy anything today. I have a sneaking suspicion if Trump doesn’t give an inch with china, which I don’t expect him to china may do something wacky to divert attention and boost their economy like invade Taiwan they’ve been thinking about it anyway

[wildman49]

As I write, I just bought some TLT as it has traded down to 88. Low yields seem to be a top priority for Trump, and I don't think he'll fail without a fight. Also, it should be somewhat of a diversifier against my other holdings.

I been trying to settle into some bonds as well. The word is China dumping bonds making the yield rise. I keep getting stopped out. I think at some point bonds will rip but we might be many months from that.

The tariff noise was really just a trigger for a sell off. The last many years is all covid pump. It has to come out like it or not.

[olds442jetaway]

Anytime you have valuations this high for this long all you need to do is chip some flint and a piece of scrap steel together and boom! A bonfire.

[dinghy]

The tariff noise was really just a trigger for a sell off.

That doesn't necessarily imply a protracted/secular bear market imo. We may only correct a portion of the overvaluation in this leg down. Also I would suggest that the overvaluation is mostly confined to the US market.

In a panic as we have now, everything goes down together. (It's said that correlations go to 1.)

I believe this is the time to be buying the innocent victims, because they'll rebound sharply when the panic dissipates.

The tariff problem has multiple paths to resolution afaik, so although it may act as a drag, I think cooler heads will prevail to avert catastrophe. Even if Trump is dead-set on his course of action, I believe the Republicans in Congress will mutiny if they fear losing the midterms.

The 2020 covid crash bottomed in mid-March, without any hope from the news flow as I recall. I guess the selling just exhausted itself. That was about a 35% S&P decline. I think we're sitting now at about 20% down.

[olds442jetaway]

Futures are way down as expected. I may sit out tomorrow again. One of the first things I want to get though will be more of Berk-B. I’ll get 25 percent or so Apple with it automatically. A big chunk will be in Treasuries too which is fine for now. Still have my eye on Ford as a dividend play and Pru if it drops another 15 points. It’s still paying a nearly 5 percent dividend as well. I’m also looking to add to Vale too if I can time it right. I think anywhere between 7-7.50 a share and I have to buy more. I’m officially down a bit now for 2025.

[wildman49]

I believe this is the time to be buying the innocent victims, because they'll rebound sharply when the panic dissipates.

The tariff problem has multiple paths to resolution afaik, so although it may act as a drag, I think cooler heads will prevail to avert catastrophe. Even if Trump is dead-set on his course of action, I believe the Republicans in Congress will mutiny if they fear losing the midterms.

The 2020 covid crash bottomed in mid-March, without any hope from the news flow as I recall. I guess the selling just exhausted itself. That was about a 35% S&P decline. I think we're sitting now at about 20% down.

2008-09 and 2020 are a totally different animals. The Feds stepped in both times with free money and zero interest rates.

2000-01 there was no bail out and the market just fell day in day out.

2025 there is no Fed put until the market drops another 30% to 50% from here. Tariffs are here to stay but the Fed put is on hold till a bank fails. Stepping in here is not wise if this is a 00-01 story.