MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

[Hiker1]

…Tariffs are here to stay but the Fed put is on hold till bank fails…

I too see no imminent ‘Fed put’.

IMO, the tariffs are self-inflicted damage without any real strategy, but the markets are functioning, and the Fed is caught for now between their dual mandates. A ‘Congressional put’ or intervention should be in play, but they’ve (both parties) long relinquished their role and responsibilities in any number of issues.

My funds, like most, are taking a beating, the only thing taking some of the edge off for now is that most of my new investments over the past three years have been burying cash in short- and long-term Treasuries.

[wildman49]

IMO, the tariffs are self-inflicted damage without any real strategy,

I say tariffs are over blown, I get tired of this BS that it's a tax on Americans. You don't have to buy China junk. Here is two examples.

I bought 4 tires for my car, I looked at a set made in South Korea and a set made by Goodyear USA. Goodyear was 50 bucks more. Now GY has plants around the world, I bought the GYs. Don't know if they was made in Ohio or over seas and shipped back. I do know the profit GY got from me went to Akron OH. headquarters.

I also bought some plastic shelving for my basement. Made in Arizona USA. My point is you might not be able to buy made in USA on some things but there is many other choices then China.

The real tax on Americans is Jay Powells interest rates. Homes and cars costing us 100's more a month is tax that put's many in USA in a bad position taking on a bigger loan then needed and the banks get fatter on the interest.

[olds442jetaway]

Funny you mentioned GY Wildman. Counting my daughter’s car, we have 5 vehicles. They all have Douglas tires which are owned by GY and made here and a few other countries, but not China. They are sold by Walmart. Have had very good luck with them over the last 20 years. My Arctic Claw winter tires aren’t made in China either. They are fantastic tires. Our friend just had a beautiful barn made by the Amish. Everything still comes down to choices. My Great Grandfather was born in 1882. I was lucky to have him until I was in my early 30s. When I was 10 in 1958, he told me never trust the Russians, but China will try and take over the world. One amazing man. As to interest rates, I think we will stay in that 3.5-5 savings range for quite a while. Still a bargain IMO. My first mortgage was 9 and I was lucky to get that when I was 26. One thing for sure is we better get our butt in gear and start making our meds in the USA. We don’t want that blackmail issue hanging over our heads. As to the market, doing a wait and see today. The EU just hit us with some tariffs a few minutes ago.

[dinghy]

2000-01 there was no bail out and the market just fell day in day out.

That's not how I understood the situation. The modern era of the Federal Reserve began with media whore Alan Greenspan. Throughout the 1990s, he elevated his profile as the protector of financial markets. This magazine cover is from February 1999:



At that time, quantitative easing was not yet available because it was viewed as an abuse of power. But Greenspan wielded his rate-cut power, collapsing Fed Funds from 6.5% in December 2000 to 1% in June 2003.

It was basically a 3-year bear market, with stocks finally recovering in 2003. My interpretation is that the "Fed put" was engaged, but ineffective.

Around that same time, the Bank of Japan pioneered QE.

The 2000-03 bear market preceded enormous gains for natural resource stocks. If you bought the October 2000 top and held through 2007, your gains were 1000% for PBR, 600% for SSL, and 100% for XOM. SPY was roughly unchanged.

[dinghy]

Now I'm monitoring Treasury auctions. How pathetic.

I see a 10-year auction today at 1pm Eastern, and then a 30-year tomorrow.

Yesterday's TLT purchases were fails, as the price subsequently crumpled overnight. Today I got a couple of fills premarket under $86. Looking to buy more on a pullback toward 85.

[wildman49]

Looking at XOM under 100 here. Not sure oil plays are smart right now.

[olds442jetaway]

XOM maybe, but not sure myself. One good thing. If you buy it, you get a nearly 4 percent dividend while you wait. Very close to money market and cd rates.

[dinghy]

SQQQ is on sale: -29% for the session

Edit: I'm glad you guys were out of it when the Trump bomb detonated.

[wildman49]

Going to be fun to short this back down in do time.

[dinghy]

Going to be fun to short this back down in do time.

My top individual stock holding (AEM) is +4%. Normally that would be good.

Not today .